Technical analysis on EU,GU and major pairs-part 2

[johny5]

Recently long threads have been closed by forum staff for database management, Hence i am continuing to post analysis here in this new thread.

However you can view the old posts of mine here : http://www.traderji.com/forex/46628-technical-analysis-eu-gu-major-pairs-88.html

 

[johny5]

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-16

The spot rate evolves between the range of 1.5660-1.5720 since august 10th. This morning it broke the intermediate support of its medium term bullish channel at 1.5660 leading to acceleration. It is testing now the lower limit of its channel at 1.5630 suggesting a rebound. However, a break of these levels would free a large potential and initiate a bearish channel.

Technical indicators provide sell signals supporting the assumption of a decline in a short term. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement. Moreover, the inferior band has been broken suggesting the initiation of a new trend.
The spot rate tests the lower limit of its channel for this reason we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a rebound where we recommend a buy on the level of 1.5630 with the 1st objective at 1.5690 and then at 1.5720. A breakthrough 1.5600 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is the hypothesis of a break of its support, and here then we recommend a sell stop. We suggest to sell the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its support of 1.5630 with the 1st objective at 1.5570 and then at 1.5550. A breakthrough 1.5650 will invalidate this scenario.

Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-16

The spot rate tested this week the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel at 1.2390 and declined. It is testing now the intermediate support of this one at 1.2260 and seems to initiate a rebound. However, a break of these levels would release a significant potential and enable the lower limit of its channel at 1.2210.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signal but until the support is not broken, the assumption of a rebound is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement. Moreover, the inferior band strengthens the intermediate support of its channel suggesting a more violent movement in case of break.
The spot rate tests its support that is why we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a rebound. In this case we recommend a buy on the level of 1.2260 with the 1st objective at 1.2320 and then at 1.2340. A break through 1.2240 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is the hypothesis of a break of its support, here we recommend a sell stop. We suggest to sell the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its support of 1.2260 with the 1st objective at 1.2200 and then at 1.2180. A breakthrough 1.2280 will invalidate this scenario.

Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

EUR/USD Bearish Outlook for August 17, 2012

The euro traded yesterday above weekly support of 1.2324 which can be regarded as the relief from downward pressure. However, we are in the price range of 1.2440 and 1.2206, and the pair may fluctuate within these levels.
As you know, there are a lot of problems in Europe at this time, which prevented me from buying this coin. Furthermore, we must admit that the problem is so complex that it is easy to understand. This is one of the worst scenarios for investment.
The fact that the euro is doing very well could have a lot to do with the fact that almost no volatility at the moment.
So our long term outlook remains bearish. We may see a recovery of the euro if it comes out at the mentioned above price range. 1.26 may be a strong level of resistance.
In the short term we recommend selling at 1.2408 strong resistance level with targets at 1.2324 and 1.2210, the stop loss is placed above 1.2450.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group 2007-2012
The euro traded yesterday above weekly support of 1.2324 which can be regarded as the relief from downward pressure. However, we are in the price range of 1.2440 and 1.2206, and the pair may fluctuate within these levels.
As you know, there are a lot of problems in Europe at this time, which prevented me from buying this coin. Furthermore, we must admit that the problem is so complex that it is easy to understand. This is one of the worst scenarios for investment.
The fact that the euro is doing very well could have a lot to do with the fact that almost no volatility at the moment.
So our long term outlook remains bearish. We may see a recovery of the euro if it comes out at the mentioned above price range. 1.26 may be a strong level of resistance.
In the short term we recommend selling at 1.2408 strong resistance level with targets at 1.2324 and 1.2210, the stop loss is placed above 1.2450.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

GBP/USD Sell Below 1.5740 for August 17

The pound sterling failed to hold above 1.5740 resistance, currently it is quoted below this level and it is likely that the downward pressure will bring it to 1.5640 next support level. It is possible that the currency will try to break this level again. If the attempt is unsuccessful, we recommend selling on the return 1.5732, with targets at 1.5646, the stop loss is placed above the highs of 1.5770.
The indicators are showing negative divergence.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

EUR/USD Weekly Wave Analysis 2012-08-20

EUR/USD Elliott Wave
For the last few days the EUR/USD pair was trading in an upward move developing corrective (Y) wave (coloured green) of the bigger (4) wave (coloured orange). During the Friday's European session we could observe an ascending movement from 1.2338 towards the 1.2380 level. Therefore, during the early New York session this major pair did not manage to hold this level and the price fell to the 1.2288 level (new daily low). At the moment the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.2350 level and we are expecting to see the price around 1.2640 this week. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave Y retraces 100% of the wave W, we can define the potential targets with measuring the X wave, with Take Profit at 1.2640 (100% of wave W). To reduce the risk, we can use support point at 1.2290 as Stop Loss.
Alternation: if price does not break 1.2385 resistance level soon, we need to regard (W) wave as the end of the (4) wave (coloured orange) and we can expect to see price around 1.2000 this week.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2239 (S2) 1.2275 (S1) 1.2297 (PP) 1.2333 (R1) 1.2369 (R2) 1.2391 (R3) 1.2427
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.2385 with Stop Loss 1.2290 and Take Profit 1.2640 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for August 20, 2012

Considering the Linear Regression channels H1 chart, the GBP/USD pair has expressed wide range movement which is manifested in the depicted bullish Blue & Yellow channels.
The upper limit of the short term bearish Violet channel has been broken earlier today which enhances the bullish view of the pair in the short term.
The lower limit of the Yellow & Blue channels as well as the backside of the broken Violet channel are located around price level of 1.5680 which is considered to be a valid low risk BUY entry with SL located below 1.5660, while TP levels are to be located around 1.5715, 1.5744 then 1.5785.
The pair has an important intraday resistance level located around 1.5725 corresponding to the midline of the Yellow channel which needs to be broken in order to resume the bullish scenario.

Performed by Mohamed Samy, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

GBP/USD Bullish Outlook for August 21, 2012

The pound sterling is trading near the maximum of June 20 this time and above the 200 day moving average periods (blue). If the pair closes today negotiations over this level, it will increase the likelihood of rise extension towards the level of 1.5950 (daily fractal) given that indicators are showing low volatility, there is a probable return to the 1.5710 support area. At this level we recommend to buy with targets 1.5930, our stop loss will be placed below the 1.5650 weekly support.
Our outlook for this pair is bullish in short term.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

EUR/USD Bearish Outlook for August 21 /2012

The euro after a day without movement, surpassed today its high of August 7 at 1.2437, and now is trading above second support weekly above 1.2454; this optimism is due to unexpected lower costs of Spanish and Italian debts.
The pair may continue its uptrend until resistance level of 1.2525, we believe that at this time there will be the beginning of a new bearish sequence in the pair. The economic problems of the European Union are far from settlement and, as a result, I think it is only a matter of time before the Europeans are punished again.
Therefore, we recommend selling at 1.2520 if this level is reached in the coming days with targets at strong support level of 1.2324. Or, if the pair is back to take an impulse, we recommend buying at 1.2394 with targets at 1.2520.
Our outlook for the pair remains bearish in the medium and long term.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

GBP/USD Buy Above EMA 200 for August 22, 2012

The pound has marked the upward trend. The level of 1.57 has served as a very strong resistance, which the currency was trying to overcome but failed to do so. Now it is located above that level and above 200 moving average period. This tells us that the pound can go up to the level of 1.60 in the medium term.
Since the pair is above the moving average 200 (blue), it is possible that it will return to this level, and then will be a strong support for the British pound. We, therefore, recommend buying at the 1.5710 level with targets at 1.5950 in the short term.
The trend and MACD indicators are showing bullish signs in the medium term.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert