1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures - Bac

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

A little clarification strike price should be one or different ? if we take 28 june eod option chain then 5900 ce is 70.95 and 5500pe is 22 so total is 90 ?

5800 strike is pe is 91 and ce is 120 ?

Which one is positive trade (which is under further exploration:clap ?

The magic combined prices of 90-95 is applicable only for NIFTY and only for Postional trading. During the middle of the day, the levels 5700 PE and 6000 CE were available for a combined price of 96. Hope 5900 CE and 5500 PE also should be fine. But 5600 PE and 6000 CE is the best pair because the MAX OI is at those levels. Hope the above is for Postional

Now coming to your question 5800 strike is pe is 91 and ce is 120 ? ,
- My opinion would be to avoid the Strikes where there is MAX, Volume or OI and take the next levels.

For example if the Max Volume is at 5700 PE and 5800 CE - Then that means Bulls are fighting to Save 5700 and Bears are trying to Save 5800. So Bulls Sell 5700 PE and Bears SELL 5800 CE. Market will be always in one direction. In the Friday's case Bears are Selling 5800 CE, Hoping that market will come down.

So if the market reverses (MAX Volume should change to 5800 CE instead of 5700 PE), What do we do?
What are the options we have with 5700, 5800 ?

SELL 5800 CE - Yes
SELL 5700 PE - NO
SELL 5800 PE - NO
SELL 5700 CE - Yes

BUY 5800 CE - NO
BUY 5700 PE - Yes
BUY 5800 PE - Yes
BUY 5700 CE - NO

So we have "4 No" and "4 Yes". What is the Best in the "Yes"?

SELL 5800 CE - OK - But better to avoid because it has the MAX volume - If there is sudden UP move this would be the most affected
SELL 5700 CE - During the UP move, this would have moved UP fast. So it would also move down faster.
BUY 5700 PE - OK - But better to avoid because it has the MAX volume - If there is sudden UP move this would be the most affected
BUY 5800 PE - During the UP move, this would have moved Down faster. So it would also move UP faster.

In Summary, if during and UP move we had MAX Volume in 5700 PE and 5800 CE. Then during the Reversal, Reverse the CE and PE. So for 5700 PE, Trade with 5700 CE (SELL) and for 5800 CE, Trade 5800 PE (BUY). In a Strong Downward move Whatever you sold you Buy and whatver you Bought you Sell.

Note: All these are with the Assumption that the market is in the UP move and it is only a minor correction. (The Postional range would confirm that. In out example the range is 5600 to 6000)

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Indeed! I started reading few books on option trading and God! Very soon I realized that it is not for me for sure!!!!!!!

Presently in this thread even if we compare your posts with option data table in real time, there is plenty of info to learn for beginners like me. Previously there was thread option analysis by option trader and amit but that is now silent!

If we understand the table like this from you, then who needs the new tool. Just joking! Looking forward to it!!

Correct. Where is the OptionTrader who was asking for the Option Tool etcc..

 

[Relish]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

The magic combined prices of 90-95 is applicable only for NIFTY and only for Postional trading. During the middle of the day, the levels 5700 PE and 6000 CE were available for a combined price of 96.

Note: All these are with the Assumption that the market is in the UP move and it is only a minor correction. (The Postional range would confirm that. In out example the range is 5600 to 6000)

Thank's It is really good to saw different approach for option trading otherwise like you said earlier theta, gamma vola making confused and if we don't have software for calculation then more difficult. thank's :clap::thumb:

 

[manishbaba]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Raj Sir,
It has one more thing to consider regarding option. Assume that i am an operator and know the trend of market, even then i consider selling a option in the direction of market. Why?
Because i sell option as covered call. In this way i earn money and protect my capital both. I saw many time that market moving in the direction of highest open interest also.
Explanation of above fenomena is only possible if I sell option in the direction of market as covered call stratgey.
This is my thinking ,may be a foolish one.
Regards,

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Raj Sir,
It has one more thing to consider regarding option. Assume that i am an operator and know the trend of market, even then i consider selling a option in the direction of market. Why?
Because i sell option as covered call. In this way i earn money and protect my capital both. I saw many time that market moving in the direction of highest open interest also.
Explanation of above fenomena is only possible if I sell option in the direction of market as covered call stratgey.
This is my thinking ,may be a foolish one.
Regards,

I am not expert with Options. But I have heard about this Covered Call. The Covered call is basically a combination of Option and Future I think.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

01-Jul-2013 Options Analysis

Friday's Average Pivot from which the LONG was taken in 5775. So below 5835 is Short and Above 5835 is LONG. We will look at Todays Volume and OI at 9:30 AM find out the new Levels.

Those who are holding the Positional trades of SELLing 6000 CE and 5600 PE - Continue to HOLD till it becomes 65 (Opened the Trade at 92) and close 50% or Whatever is your decision. Friday it closed around 70. So today it might surely goto 65.

Those who SOLD 6000 CE and 5700 PE @ 96 - Can book the profits in the morning if it gives 20 points

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

01-Jul-2013 Options Analysis

Friday's Average Pivot from which the LONG was taken in 5775. So below 5835 is Short and Above 5835 is LONG. We will look at Todays Volume and OI at 9:30 AM find out the new Levels.

Those who are holding the Positional trades of SELLing 6000 CE and 5600 PE - Continue to HOLD till it becomes 65 (Opened the Trade at 92) and close 50% or Whatever is your decision. Friday it closed around 70. So today it might surely goto 65.

Those who SOLD 6000 CE and 5700 PE @ 96 - Can book the profits in the morning if it gives 20 points

Early morning indicators - The MAX Volume has shifted from 5700-5800 to 5800-5900. The Average Pivot is 5813. So Stay long above 5813 and SELL SHORT below 5813 for Target of 5753.

Otherwise Whoever wants to take Risk, Short at 5843 and Trade for 60 points till 5783

The Postional Levels are the same 5600-6000.

The Intraday is indicates a SELL while the Positional indicates a BUY. So the Market is in UP Trend. Take quick profits who are SHORT.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

The MAX OI has changed from 5600-6000 to 5600-5900. So Heavy short positions being created at 5900 CE. So avoid buying above 5855.

Since the MAX OI changed to 5900 from 6000... The Average pivot moved to 5795, which could be our downside target today. So SELL around 5855.

 

[dineshN]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

59CE vol adding up consistently and 58PE vol not that much!
58PE change in OI not moving up at all.

 

[anup]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

59CE vol adding up consistently and 58PE vol not that much!
58PE change in OI not moving up at all.

Can we conclude bears are pritecting 5900. and shorts are built but bulls are not protecting 5800... There can be a big fall around the corner !!