1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures - Bac

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

I am getting confused..MAx change in OI is for 5300 put and all the other PE's change in OI is in negative..Does this mean people are squaring of the puts and change in OI for CE is max at 5900 call...We dont know whether people are shorting 5900 Call!! Itss very confusing

For Intraday, Look at where the MAX CHG in OI is in CE and PE.
In CE, it is at 5900 CE - 11.6 Lakhs
In PE it is at 5300 PE - 3.26 Lakhs.

5900 CE Max compared to 5300 PE. So the Intraday trend is Down.

Look at the OI Trend to see positional Range it is still at 5600-6000.

5300 might be to confuse the Traders or it also gives an indication that market will not cross 5300. But being at 5800 thinking about 5300 now is not necessary. It might help the Positional traders...

So simple rule is Whenevr there is a high position at CE - Consider it as a SELL and vice versa... Negative CHG in OI means - Squaring off or Profit booking happening

Today the overall CHG in CE is 22L and PE is -75K - So it is clearly Down... But there is a lot of profit booking also happening because the market is nearing the half way mark of the positional range 5600-6000, which is 5800 (Since the trend is down the Low could 5775). So at 5775 normally for the retail trader it is good to be out and watch the Institutional players on the positions that they will take

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

CLOSE ALL your shorts and go for Fresh Shorts only If market goes strongly below 5770. The Reason being 5776 was the low and the market is bouncing back from there. It is also the 60 points from 5830...

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Postional Traders can try selling 5700 PE and 6000 CE Pair in anticipation for a UP move. It is now trading at around 92-95. It is still a Risky trade, Since UP Trend is not confirmed. But since we are selling it as pair our loss should be minimized.

Remember this kind of Pair Trading will give max benefit only if there is a Reversal after we take the Trade. So let us hope for the Reversal looking at the Overall OI data.

Now the Whipsaws should start and move the Options pricing down...

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Agreed. But I would suggest not to be in a hurry to go Long. Wait for the Positions to be made, Like during this Reversal a Huge Change in OI was seen at 6000 CE. Similarly if 5700 has to be bottom, Then the following things need to happen...

- The Max OI needs to change from 5600 PE to 5700 PE and so the range would change from 5600-6000 to 5700-6100 (OR 5700-6200 - 500 points). The 5700-6100 is also trading near 68. The pair needs to show increase in price...
- The MAX CHG in OI should be at 5700 PE like it happened for 6000 CE.
- Right now both 5700 and 5900 strikes do not have any huge positions. The Max Options postions are at 5800 followed by 5600 and 6000.

As told in the morning, Please keep a watch the CHG in OI on 5700 PE, to confirm the UP Trend... right now in all the 5600 Pe, 5700 PE, 5800 PE only 5700 PE has a positive value of 2L. So it is starting to build in 5700 PE. But we should have around 60L OI to confirm 5700 as the base or in other words the money should flow from 5600 PE to 5700 PE

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

I hope you are all benefitting with my regular posts on Option Analysis, as I am also learning at the same time. Would also appreciate any different ideas or counter points because the problem with my knowledge is that I have not learnt this trading formerly from anybody and I am learning with my own intuition and observation... So please help so that we can all learn through experience. I find this Option analysis interesting. I find it one of the best ways to know the Trend and the Direction.

 

[sabhlok_r]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

I hope you are all benefitting with my regular posts on Option Analysis, as I am also learning at the same time. Would also appreciate any different ideas or counter points because the problem with my knowledge is that I have not learnt this trading formerly from anybody and I am learning with my own intuition and observation... So please help so that we can all learn through experience. I find this Option analysis interesting. I find it one of the best ways to know the Trend and the Direction.

Raj...I too am a learner....in fact your thread is the source of motivation for me to explore this.... thanks for the initiative

 

[dineshN]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

The problem is no expert comment so far!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Happy_Singh]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

I hope you are all benefitting with my regular posts on Option Analysis, as I am also learning at the same time. Would also appreciate any different ideas or counter points because the problem with my knowledge is that I have not learnt this trading formerly from anybody and I am learning with my own intuition and observation... So please help so that we can all learn through experience. I find this Option analysis interesting. I find it one of the best ways to know the Trend and the Direction.

:thumb:


Happy

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

As told in the morning, Please keep a watch the CHG in OI on 5700 PE, to confirm the UP Trend... right now in all the 5600 Pe, 5700 PE, 5800 PE only 5700 PE has a positive value of 2L. So it is starting to build in 5700 PE. But we should have around 60L OI to confirm 5700 as the base or in other words the money should flow from 5600 PE to 5700 PE

The MAX CGH in OI has shifted from 5300-5900 to 5700-5900. The 5700 PE build is going on... From 2L it is now 4.7L. 5900 CE still the highest at 13.7L.
Hope a double bottom is being formed at 5760

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

SBIN Opened 1990 (High also same). Now trading at 1950. Heavy Shorts at 2000 CE. No positions yet at 1950, 1900. Even it is Risky, I hope it is worth taking. Today the Target could be 1920.

I had asked to close with 1% profit. But the Target we talked about in the morning also reached.