1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures - Bac

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

here in dis v must enter nifty spot closing data ,,,,????
if v miss any days data den ???wil dis system works say for 1 wek r month data missing ??

If you miss any data then your signals would be wrong.
Yes I have used the NIFTY Spot data... If you can use the NIFTY Futures data then that would be perfect.
You can download the data from http://www.nseindia.com/products/content/equities/indices/historical_index_data.htm

 

[paka006]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Is it possible to make 652 lakhs in 497 Trading days with a starting capital of 1 lakh using NIFTY Futures.

Well theoretically it is possible.

So what is the Principle behind this strategy?

1. NIFTY is Trending only 20-25% of the time and so why always take 20 points Stoploss when 80% of the time you are going to loose. Why not take 7-10 points loss and close the trade if stoploss hit.
2. 20-25% of the time when the market is trending, NIFTY never crosses the opening price by more than 10 points. So in those cases NIFTY always gives on an average 55 points on the LONG side and 77 points on the SHORT Side.
3. 80-20 Principle. 80% of the losses comes from 20% of the trades and so 80% profit can come from 20% of the trades.
4. Why do we need to spend hours before the monitor, while we can spend maximum 30 minutes a day. (15 minutes during opening and 15 minutes during closing)

So let us say we do hundred trades.
75 trades with a loss of 10 points = 750 points loss
25 trades with a gain of 65 points = 1625 points gain
Net gain = 875 points in 100 trading days.
If you started trading with a capital of 1 lakh and 2% Risk, the profit would be Rs 1,75,000.
With pyramiding (reinvesting the profit ) it would turn to crores.

Attaching the excel sheet with the backtested results with the data of last two years for NIFTY.

Also attaching back tested result for the SBIN stock. SBIN unlike NIFTY falls in the 50:50 category. ie 50% of time is trending and 50% it is Rangebound. So it is one of the highly Trending stock. The Parameters are different for SBIN. For eg... your stoploss should be around 1% in SBIN where as for NIFTY your stoploss should not be more than 0.2%.

All the prices for SPOT

http://www.4shared.com/file/582KqrC8/Positional_Trading_-_NIFTY-Bac.html

http://www.4shared.com/file/CcpeHgKq/Positional_Trading_-_SBIN-Back.html

Will explain the strategy in detail in the next post.

How you calculated nifty is trending only 20-25% will you please explain.

 

[miscos]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Hi Raj, very interesting excel sheet. I was trying the sheet with hourly data and nifty. If a full-time trader combines day and hour sheet for reference and taking action, I think one can also do good. However the more trades, the more brokerage and one has to combine his skill. The issue is when a trader combines his perception about where market will go, that also carries usual risk.
I shall be keeping a close watch in this valuable thread.:clap:

 

[gurmy.]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

does anybody is actually trading as per this sheet?
i am planning from monday onwards

 

[Option.Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

I think we could extend this to stay in position. we would need a few rules set up to put in stop loss for the trades. As the system follows a price momentum, we could use the change in momentum to be the stop loss .Below are some eg for stop loss
1) Start the trade when "Buy Long" Signal comes in. Hold till Close long comes in
2) Place the stop loss at the 15 day low avg. Continue to hold positions unless 15 day low avg is breached
3)we can use the crossover of 15 day and 25 day to also come out of trade. Set up a table in excel that predicts the crossover by decrementing 1 point change to a range of values to see at which point the crossover is likely to come
The same rules apply for short positions
Maybe if we could code the rules we could see the RR ratio

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

How you calculated nifty is trending only 20-25% will you please explain.

First of all, I assumed On a Trending day the Stock/Index needs to move UP/DOWN a minimum of 1%. For an UP Trend the Index should be able to make a Higher High and Higher Low of 1% from previous day's (High and Low). Then I count the day as Trending day. Otherwise I take the day as Range bound...

Attaching the Excel... See the sheet called "Trending" where the Trending is 20.5%. (Contains last 10 years of NIFTY data)

http://www.4shared.com/zip/4ujFBdWE/Positional_Trading_-_NIFTY_-_B.html

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

I think we could extend this to stay in position. we would need a few rules set up to put in stop loss for the trades. As the system follows a price momentum, we could use the change in momentum to be the stop loss .Below are some eg for stop loss
1) Start the trade when "Buy Long" Signal comes in. Hold till Close long comes in
2) Place the stop loss at the 15 day low avg. Continue to hold positions unless 15 day low avg is breached
3)we can use the crossover of 15 day and 25 day to also come out of trade. Set up a table in excel that predicts the crossover by decrementing 1 point change to a range of values to see at which point the crossover is likely to come
The same rules apply for short positions
Maybe if we could code the rules we could see the RR ratio

Yes it is a good Idea... But See if the Risk is worth taking considering the Gap UP/ Gap DOWN days... And the other thing is Pyramiding. If you close End of Day and if you would have made some profit and you can buy more positions for tomorrow.

 

[Option.Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Raj

I think I found a problem with this. I had been analyzing your file and backtest data looks good. I decided to put in Nifty Futures data as we cant trade plain indedx anyways. Thats when the problem deepens. Now Futures goes into premium or discount based on the market participants. This decreases the probablity of winning trades by chopping out more winning trades. The 10 points stop loss get triggered more often in Nifty Futures than in plain index.
Just to give you some statistics
Plain Index Nifty Futures
Long Win % 25% 18%
Short Win% 25% 19%
long net points 1116 313
Short Net points 1759 922
Returns 636X 11

I have attached the xls with values updated to Nifty Futures for your reference
http://www.4shared.com/file/7gymnSAR/Positional_Trading_-_NIFTY-Fut.html
Let me know what you think. May be change the stop loss?

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Raj

I think I found a problem with this. I had been analyzing your file and backtest data looks good. I decided to put in Nifty Futures data as we cant trade plain indedx anyways. Thats when the problem deepens. Now Futures goes into premium or discount based on the market participants. This decreases the probablity of winning trades by chopping out more winning trades. The 10 points stop loss get triggered more often in Nifty Futures than in plain index.
Just to give you some statistics
Plain Index Nifty Futures
Long Win % 25% 18%
Short Win% 25% 19%
long net points 1116 313
Short Net points 1759 922
Returns 636X 11

I have attached the xls with values updated to Nifty Futures for your reference
http://www.4shared.com/file/7gymnSAR/Positional_Trading_-_NIFTY-Fut.html
Let me know what you think. May be change the stop loss?

Good Observation. Where did you get the Futures Data from ?

 

[basudeo]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Hi Healthraj,

I corrected data for 18.7.12 and inserted two rows as follows:-

18-Jul-12 5199 5223 5169 5216
19-Jul-12 5250 5258 5233 5243
20-Jul-12 5234 5239 5198 5205

But remaining columns are not updating. Please tell what went wrong?

Basudeo