15th june > @ 17412 > BULLS ENTER

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renu daga

Well-Known Member
Re: CRUDE realities/INFLATION infection

But atleast he has reveiled his trading secret aBut at least he has revealed his trading secret and methodology that others don't in spite of repetitive requests and believe in giving tips to others such that if market goes against s/he still can open an advisory service for tips based on her/his indicator. They are good for nothing and you will find them criticizing others most of the time or giving free tips to their prospective customers of course w/o revealing the secret of her/his indicator. And when ever get a chance MUST talk about her/his indicator obviously for publicizing purpose.nd methodolody which some people don't instead of repetitive requests and indulge in criticizing others.

u are abs wrong ,,,

there are mnay times ,, many members have posted (except tipsters)...good buys,,and backed them with their analysis ,,and indicators
but it is true no one gives out its 100% trade secret ,,becuause no one is hundred percent...
thirdly evreytime posting teh buy of certain stock with comp analysis is not possible also..
u go on (not on tipsters thread),, good senior memebrs thread u will find ,stocks backed by their educational study

this is ur first post in this forum,, and os ,,negative approach

what is more imp is to learn not to get tips or calls even based on their study
( my view)

renu
 
Re: CRUDE realities/INFLATION infection

well asish da..
to be truly even i was studying crude oil,,, chart.. whihc i had the data which said .(mcx data) crude ...when it was 5200...i ahd made paper trade..to short at 5200,,and itw net to 6000...but tehn it came down ,,to 5200..anmd tehn again moved swiftly up

there was along neg div,,at that time,, but tehn it moved up,,and the div got cancelled
so i failed in analysing it,,, in right way..

i thought at that point it must crash heavily
and suduko alos posted the same thing at that moment...that a heavy crash is seen in crude oil ,, beware of longs,,,but he also failed,,,and the smae thing it moved up.very high and then came down,,and he took the crown ,,saying ,, see it crashed.

and tehn he did not blah / bla..
this what happens ,,, when anyone goes rgt ...he / she,,,,bla bla..
and when goe swrong,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,a big silent!!!!

renu
Renu ur criticisms are unwarrented.Sudoku has been reasonable in his tip off's and never gave calls on prices.

Please verify your facts before accusing others.:eek:
regards
 

pleaseharsh

Well-Known Member
Re: CRUDE realities/INFLATION infection

i know its long (could be) epic but pls take the pain to read this :
(aur ab aa gaya manoranjan ka baap : thaaaeennnnnnnnnntannnnnnnnn)Mahabharat -2

The current surge in crude oil price is being dubbed as a bubble almost in the same breath as the dotcom, North Sea and Tulip Bulb mania.

Before we go on to bust the myth, let's revisit the definition of a bubble. A surge in price is often more than warranted by the fundamentals and followed by a drastic drop in prices as a massive selloff occurs.

There are two very basic assumptions. The first is that it should surge very high. And the second is that it should fall drastically in a short span of time, almost or lower than the level from where it began.

Over the longer term, from December 2002 to date, crude has appreciated 358 per cent from the level of $31.2 a barrel. But so has copper. In fact a tad more, as it has a tally of 448 per cent. But no one calls copper a bubble.

If you were to take the last one year as a benchmark, then crude has risen 100 per cent. But so has iron ore (96.5 per cent), the price of which is arrived at after a hard bargaining between the supplier and the user groups. But iron ore is not termed a bubble.

Once the trade begins to unwind in crude, where can it go? It can sure tumble to $110 or to take a more bearish outlook to $90. But it cant go to $31--a pre-requisite for it to be called a bubble. Pentamedia was a bubble which tumbled from Rs 2,109 to Rs 20 in 17 months. Crude is not.

Even if we were to assume for a moment that it would tumble back to $31, the exploratory work in the deep seas will stop at $80 and on shore exploration should suspend at $45, as it will no longer be remunerative to explore and extract oil. As efforts for future wells come to a halt, prices of crude will start rising again. If it were a bubble, prices wouldn't rise the second time.

Now let's look at the fundamentals, as to why crude is rising?
There is no ready spare capacity. Outside Saudi Arabia, there is no spare capacity. Sanctions on Iran have meant that no new outside funds have come to bolster the current production of around 4 million barrels a day. Iraqi oil wells, despite the US efforts have not been able to reach production levels of pre-war era. England and Norway are seeing winding down of their North Sea production and Venezuela does not have the political will or the technical expertise to increase production.

Even Russia, which increased production by 4 million bpd from 1996 to 2007 cant produce more. Over the past many years, Russia accounted for almost 80 per cent of the growth in oil production outside the OPEC. Its production, which peaked at 9.9 million barrels a day, is gradually dipping.

Earlier, when there used to be a adequate spare capacity of over 6-7 million barrels a day, supply was never an issue, even if there was platform fire in North Sea or a strike in Venezuela, Saudi Arabia or Iraq would pump more and the world would have the oil delivered at its door. The world could sleep well, because it knew there was enough spare capacity with the dollar hungry Middle-East, so short or long term disruptions in supply did not have the adverse effect on prices.

But now as the spare capacity has dwindled to around just 1.2 million barrels a day, even a small accident anywhere can create shortage, lighting a fire under the crude pot.

Falling production and rising nationalism
On a year on year basis, oil majors have seen reduction in their production numbers. BP's production fell 2 per cent, Shell's production fell 6 per cent, and ExxonMobil's fell a full 10 per cent. Overall production will fall 2 percent this year from last.

Even the Saudis, 60-year-old Ghawar reservoir, lynch pin of Saudi capacity, is on the decline. The fact that the Saudi government refuses to allow in outsiders to evaluate the state of its oil industry has fueled talk that Saudis are hiding something.

The bottom-line is that the world is not finding oil quickly enough to replace the 3 to 4 per cent that get pumped out every year.

As record commodity prices translate into staggering profits for oil MNCs, many producing nations, including some of US' largest suppliers in Latin America, are eyeing the industry's swelling coffers and deciding that more of those riches should stay at home.

Rising violence in Nigeria and State nationalism of Bolivia and Venezuela are giving jitters to oil markets.

Though Putin is no more at the helm, the new administration under Dmitry Medvedev continues to follow his policies when interacting with international firms. Most international firms have continued to stay clear off the Russian assets. Even companies like BP, which felt it had mastered the art of sleeping with the Russians, are now facing the same problems which Yukos faced state machinery turning foe. All foreign nationals (read British) working in the TNK-BP joint venture has been ordered to leave Russia before July end.

Geopolitical reasons
In the recently concluded conclave in Jeddah, the Saudi's announced a hike in production of 2, 00,000 barrels a day after so much of deliberations and pressure from the user countries. But it took just a motor boat and two terrorists to temporarily incapacitate an off-shore platform of equal capacity, 100 kilometers away from Nigerian coast. This shows how vulnerable the world is to supply shocks.

While the markets may have heard the story of a possible attack by Israel on Iran's nuclear facilities and yawned, it may be true. There is no way of knowing what would be the stance of the next incumbent of the White House. So Israel may not want to take a chance and carry it out this year. Secondly, there is a time sense to this. The earlier they act, the better it is. Any one who knows Israel need not question there will and their wisdom to attack. If they do attack, crude is likely to over shoot the $200 a barrel mark.

Then there is the possibility of Iran laying a siege in the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation or otherwise. The strait connects the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea and has been the focus of potential conflict between competing regional and international powers. The strait is strategically important and represents one of the nine major water chokepoints in the world, being only 50km wide at its shortest point. It is the only sea route through which oil from Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, as well as most of the United Arab Emirates can be transported. With more than 20 per cent of the crude passing through this route, one can understand the possible gravity of the situation, if this oil was to be held ransom. The US's 5th fleet is located in nearby Bahrain to protect against such eventualities and also to protect the interests of UAE and Oman.

While you could possibly make Iran see reason or place Niger Delta rebels, there is no way you can stop Mother Nature form hurling hurricanes into the Gulf of Mexico between June and November each year.

Each tropical depression is formed off the western coast of Africa, which then travels westwards. In this journey some of them develop into a tropical storm, which is then given a name and tracked. Each year around 12-18 tropical storms could be formed and around 6 to 10 of them could graduate into a hurricane as they move further west in the Atlantic Ocean. While most of them do not make a landfall, some of them actually do anywhere in the West Indies, Yucatan peninsula of Mexico or anywhere in the giant arc between Texas and Florida.

The problem is that Gulf of Mexico, home to the largest concentration of off-shore rigs in the world, lies in the path of hurricanes. A round 23 per cent of the US oil production happens from these platforms. Hurricanes can destroy these platforms and create shortage, which has to be met through increased imports.

Another big concern for the markets is the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, or LOOP, is also situated here on the Gulf Coast. LOOP handles bulk of the imported crude, as this is the only deepwater port. Hurricanes in the region even if they don't hit the rigs, hamper oil downloading as VLCCs have to stay anchored temporarily for days together.

This year, researchers at Colorado State University forecast a busy hurricane season. They expect 15 tropical storms and expect eight of them to turn into hurricanes. While the last two years have been rather tame, the probability of an intense season increases. So far only tropical storm has been born. Till November the vigil will have to be maintained and crude will be at the mercy of the weather gods.

Demand destruction

Now that Asian countries have begun to raise petroleum product prices, it could result into some demand destruction. Per capita consumption of crude is very meagre in the developing world.

While India and China are blamed for the rise in demand of the last few years, the world is barking up the wrong tree. The per capita consumption of crude at 0.89 barrels and 2.20 barrels for India and China respectively, is a fraction of that consumed by Japan and US which guzzle 14.40 barrels and 25.50 barrels per head respectively.

Indications are finally emerging that even developed countries are starting to feel the pinch. The number of vehicle miles traveled in the US fell in March on a year-over-year basis for the first time since 1979. There are other anecdotal evidences as well. The lane, which allows only shared cars is beginning to see a traffic snarl, indicating commuters are sharing cars to travel to work. Major US airlines have announced widespread capacity reductions, which could cut demand for jet fuel by 5 per cent or more later this year.

Due to the increased awareness about the green energy, a weakening economy and lower growth in income forecast for the next few years, one research house in the US expects the car population to decline by about 10 million by 2012.

In its Medium-Term Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency forecast global demand will rise to 86.87 million barrels a day in 2008, down 1.4 million from the 88.27 million barrels it projected in last year's report. It also lowered its demand forecasts for the years 2009 to 2012, citing weaker economic growth and the sharp rise in oil prices.

But a meaningful demand destruction will happen in the future and for that to happen, we need a sustained level of more than 130 barrels for months together.

Polar Bear

The Polar Bear was declared as an endangered species in the US in May. You might wonder how this could raise crude prices? When a species is declared endangered, it usually gets an earmarked 'critical habitat'. That usually means no human activity in that region.

The last of the biggest oil discoveries in the US, was in Alaska's Prudhoe Bay, home to the Polar Bear. Once a habitat is declared, all the exploration and drilling activities could stop, hurting any new prospects of discovery and hampering some current production. The Arctic is seen as rich in hydrocarbons and Russia has even put an under ground flag on the sea bed under the rapidly thinning ice cover at the North Pole.

Project Delays
The world is harping on two oil fields to meet the incremental world demand over the next few years. Kashagan field on the Caspian Sea in Kazakhstan, the largest oil find in the last two decades, will contribute around 2 million barrels a day, when commissioned. Second is the Tupi field in the South Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Brazil, which will contribute around 1 million barrels a day.

The bad news is that Kashagan field, which was supposed to go on stream by 2010, will now be operational by 2013. The field was initially planned to go on stream by 2005. This is despite the fact that ENI led consortium reads like a world cup team of oil, if there was one. Apart from ENI of Italy, which has bought Burren Energy's stake in Hindustan Oil, there are other world majors like Exxon-Mobil and ConocoPhillips of the US, France's Total, and Anglo-Dutch Royal Dutch Shell.

Tupi is technically challenging as first the sea bed is 2 km deep. Then there is 3 km thick layer of sand and rocks and then a 2 km thick layer of salt. It will start producing 1 lakh barrels initially by 2013 but may ramp up to a million barrels a day by 2020.

That leaves us with Iraq, which wants to increase its production and revitalise it's assets before giving large exploration contracts. In 2-3 years, Iraq could be pumping more. It is the only OPEC member, which has no quota limits.

The delay in the case of Kashagan is a big setback and has not got the attention it deserves in the media.

A declining Dollar

A weak dollar has been a fuel for crude. Buoyant crude has meant higher inflation, which in turn has made equities unattractive. Money has flown from equities into crude ETFs. That is also one of the reasons for the crude to do well.

But the fundamental issues like inability to raise production in the medium term, slim spare capacity and delay in the new projects is primarily responsible for the present hike. Crude is by no means a bubble.

There is suggestion that US, which holds 750 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves in bunkers should release 100 million barrels into the markets to torpedo crude prices. I don't think Uncle Sam will do that. How much is 100 million barrels. That is just 5 days of US consumption. Why would US want to risk that?

China and Russia are quietly building their reserves. India is only planning.

What can bring down the prices of crude? An appreciation of the dollar, sharp increase in trading margins and other regulatory steps could be possible reasons for the unwinding of positions.

But the basic fear of shortage is still to play out its full potential. Barring the Strategic Reserves of US, Russia and China, crude is not being hoarded. As the fear increases that crude shortage may happen going into the future, countries may start hoarding crude for future use. That is the time when prices could really shoot up. For that to happen, crude production need not come to a grinding halt. The spare capacity, which is at 1.2 million barrels, just has to vanish.

And as long as crude is going up, there is no need to take out your fishing rods for the equity waters.

(The author is wholetime director of Anagram Stock Broking Ltd)
 
Last edited:
Re: Sensex TECHNICALS

Hmmmmmmmmmm.

great bichar........:)

u ment to say ........... DAD CAT WILL BOUNCE ONCE:p

BTW.........bottom can't be below zero.......
........and sky is limitless............;)
(in financial matters ofcourse a limit.......both side)

Isn't it...........??:rolleyes:

n absolute terms.....never waste ur time 2 find a bottom in bearish times....just keep track of the resistance & enjoy..
 
Last edited:
Re: CRUDE realities/INFLATION infection

i know its long (could be) epic but pls take the pain to read this :
(aur ab aa gaya manoranjan ka baap : thaaaeennnnnnnnnntannnnnnnnn)Mahabharat -2

The current surge in crude oil price is being dubbed as a bubble almost in the same breath as the dotcom, North Sea and Tulip Bulb mania.

Before we go on to bust the myth, let's revisit the definition of a bubble. A surge in price is often more than warranted by the fundamentals and followed by a drastic drop in prices as a massive selloff occurs.

There are two very basic assumptions. The first is that it should surge very high. And the second is that it should fall drastically in a short span of time, almost or lower than the level from where it began.

Over the longer term, from December 2002 to date, crude has appreciated 358 per cent from the level of $31.2 a barrel. But so has copper. In fact a tad more, as it has a tally of 448 per cent. But no one calls copper a bubble.

If you were to take the last one year as a benchmark, then crude has risen 100 per cent. But so has iron ore (96.5 per cent), the price of which is arrived at after a hard bargaining between the supplier and the user groups. But iron ore is not termed a bubble.

Once the trade begins to unwind in crude, where can it go? It can sure tumble to $110 or to take a more bearish outlook to $90. But it cant go to $31--a pre-requisite for it to be called a bubble. Pentamedia was a bubble which tumbled from Rs 2,109 to Rs 20 in 17 months. Crude is not.

Even if we were to assume for a moment that it would tumble back to $31, the exploratory work in the deep seas will stop at $80 and on shore exploration should suspend at $45, as it will no longer be remunerative to explore and extract oil. As efforts for future wells come to a halt, prices of crude will start rising again. If it were a bubble, prices wouldn't rise the second time.

Now let's look at the fundamentals, as to why crude is rising?
There is no ready spare capacity. Outside Saudi Arabia, there is no spare capacity. Sanctions on Iran have meant that no new outside funds have come to bolster the current production of around 4 million barrels a day. Iraqi oil wells, despite the US efforts have not been able to reach production levels of pre-war era. England and Norway are seeing winding down of their North Sea production and Venezuela does not have the political will or the technical expertise to increase production.

Even Russia, which increased production by 4 million bpd from 1996 to 2007 cant produce more. Over the past many years, Russia accounted for almost 80 per cent of the growth in oil production outside the OPEC. Its production, which peaked at 9.9 million barrels a day, is gradually dipping.

Earlier, when there used to be a adequate spare capacity of over 6-7 million barrels a day, supply was never an issue, even if there was platform fire in North Sea or a strike in Venezuela, Saudi Arabia or Iraq would pump more and the world would have the oil delivered at its door. The world could sleep well, because it knew there was enough spare capacity with the dollar hungry Middle-East, so short or long term disruptions in supply did not have the adverse effect on prices.

But now as the spare capacity has dwindled to around just 1.2 million barrels a day, even a small accident anywhere can create shortage, lighting a fire under the crude pot.

Falling production and rising nationalism
On a year on year basis, oil majors have seen reduction in their production numbers. BP's production fell 2 per cent, Shell's production fell 6 per cent, and ExxonMobil's fell a full 10 per cent. Overall production will fall 2 percent this year from last.

Even the Saudis, 60-year-old Ghawar reservoir, lynch pin of Saudi capacity, is on the decline. The fact that the Saudi government refuses to allow in outsiders to evaluate the state of its oil industry has fueled talk that Saudis are hiding something.

The bottom-line is that the world is not finding oil quickly enough to replace the 3 to 4 per cent that get pumped out every year.

As record commodity prices translate into staggering profits for oil MNCs, many producing nations, including some of US' largest suppliers in Latin America, are eyeing the industry's swelling coffers and deciding that more of those riches should stay at home.

Rising violence in Nigeria and State nationalism of Bolivia and Venezuela are giving jitters to oil markets.

Though Putin is no more at the helm, the new administration under Dmitry Medvedev continues to follow his policies when interacting with international firms. Most international firms have continued to stay clear off the Russian assets. Even companies like BP, which felt it had mastered the art of sleeping with the Russians, are now facing the same problems which Yukos faced state machinery turning foe. All foreign nationals (read British) working in the TNK-BP joint venture has been ordered to leave Russia before July end.

Geopolitical reasons
In the recently concluded conclave in Jeddah, the Saudi's announced a hike in production of 2, 00,000 barrels a day after so much of deliberations and pressure from the user countries. But it took just a motor boat and two terrorists to temporarily incapacitate an off-shore platform of equal capacity, 100 kilometers away from Nigerian coast. This shows how vulnerable the world is to supply shocks.

While the markets may have heard the story of a possible attack by Israel on Iran's nuclear facilities and yawned, it may be true. There is no way of knowing what would be the stance of the next incumbent of the White House. So Israel may not want to take a chance and carry it out this year. Secondly, there is a time sense to this. The earlier they act, the better it is. Any one who knows Israel need not question there will and their wisdom to attack. If they do attack, crude is likely to over shoot the $200 a barrel mark.

Then there is the possibility of Iran laying a siege in the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation or otherwise. The strait connects the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea and has been the focus of potential conflict between competing regional and international powers. The strait is strategically important and represents one of the nine major water chokepoints in the world, being only 50km wide at its shortest point. It is the only sea route through which oil from Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, as well as most of the United Arab Emirates can be transported. With more than 20 per cent of the crude passing through this route, one can understand the possible gravity of the situation, if this oil was to be held ransom. The US's 5th fleet is located in nearby Bahrain to protect against such eventualities and also to protect the interests of UAE and Oman.

While you could possibly make Iran see reason or place Niger Delta rebels, there is no way you can stop Mother Nature form hurling hurricanes into the Gulf of Mexico between June and November each year.

Each tropical depression is formed off the western coast of Africa, which then travels westwards. In this journey some of them develop into a tropical storm, which is then given a name and tracked. Each year around 12-18 tropical storms could be formed and around 6 to 10 of them could graduate into a hurricane as they move further west in the Atlantic Ocean. While most of them do not make a landfall, some of them actually do anywhere in the West Indies, Yucatan peninsula of Mexico or anywhere in the giant arc between Texas and Florida.

The problem is that Gulf of Mexico, home to the largest concentration of off-shore rigs in the world, lies in the path of hurricanes. A round 23 per cent of the US oil production happens from these platforms. Hurricanes can destroy these platforms and create shortage, which has to be met through increased imports.

Another big concern for the markets is the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, or LOOP, is also situated here on the Gulf Coast. LOOP handles bulk of the imported crude, as this is the only deepwater port. Hurricanes in the region even if they don't hit the rigs, hamper oil downloading as VLCCs have to stay anchored temporarily for days together.

This year, researchers at Colorado State University forecast a busy hurricane season. They expect 15 tropical storms and expect eight of them to turn into hurricanes. While the last two years have been rather tame, the probability of an intense season increases. So far only tropical storm has been born. Till November the vigil will have to be maintained and crude will be at the mercy of the weather gods.

Demand destruction

Now that Asian countries have begun to raise petroleum product prices, it could result into some demand destruction. Per capita consumption of crude is very meagre in the developing world.

While India and China are blamed for the rise in demand of the last few years, the world is barking up the wrong tree. The per capita consumption of crude at 0.89 barrels and 2.20 barrels for India and China respectively, is a fraction of that consumed by Japan and US which guzzle 14.40 barrels and 25.50 barrels per head respectively.

Indications are finally emerging that even developed countries are starting to feel the pinch. The number of vehicle miles traveled in the US fell in March on a year-over-year basis for the first time since 1979. There are other anecdotal evidences as well. The lane, which allows only shared cars is beginning to see a traffic snarl, indicating commuters are sharing cars to travel to work. Major US airlines have announced widespread capacity reductions, which could cut demand for jet fuel by 5 per cent or more later this year.

Due to the increased awareness about the green energy, a weakening economy and lower growth in income forecast for the next few years, one research house in the US expects the car population to decline by about 10 million by 2012.

In its Medium-Term Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency forecast global demand will rise to 86.87 million barrels a day in 2008, down 1.4 million from the 88.27 million barrels it projected in last year's report. It also lowered its demand forecasts for the years 2009 to 2012, citing weaker economic growth and the sharp rise in oil prices.

But a meaningful demand destruction will happen in the future and for that to happen, we need a sustained level of more than 130 barrels for months together.

Polar Bear

The Polar Bear was declared as an endangered species in the US in May. You might wonder how this could raise crude prices? When a species is declared endangered, it usually gets an earmarked 'critical habitat'. That usually means no human activity in that region.

The last of the biggest oil discoveries in the US, was in Alaska's Prudhoe Bay, home to the Polar Bear. Once a habitat is declared, all the exploration and drilling activities could stop, hurting any new prospects of discovery and hampering some current production. The Arctic is seen as rich in hydrocarbons and Russia has even put an under ground flag on the sea bed under the rapidly thinning ice cover at the North Pole.

Project Delays
The world is harping on two oil fields to meet the incremental world demand over the next few years. Kashagan field on the Caspian Sea in Kazakhstan, the largest oil find in the last two decades, will contribute around 2 million barrels a day, when commissioned. Second is the Tupi field in the South Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Brazil, which will contribute around 1 million barrels a day.

The bad news is that Kashagan field, which was supposed to go on stream by 2010, will now be operational by 2013. The field was initially planned to go on stream by 2005. This is despite the fact that ENI led consortium reads like a world cup team of oil, if there was one. Apart from ENI of Italy, which has bought Burren Energy's stake in Hindustan Oil, there are other world majors like Exxon-Mobil and ConocoPhillips of the US, France's Total, and Anglo-Dutch Royal Dutch Shell.

Tupi is technically challenging as first the sea bed is 2 km deep. Then there is 3 km thick layer of sand and rocks and then a 2 km thick layer of salt. It will start producing 1 lakh barrels initially by 2013 but may ramp up to a million barrels a day by 2020.

That leaves us with Iraq, which wants to increase its production and revitalise it's assets before giving large exploration contracts. In 2-3 years, Iraq could be pumping more. It is the only OPEC member, which has no quota limits.

The delay in the case of Kashagan is a big setback and has not got the attention it deserves in the media.

A declining Dollar

A weak dollar has been a fuel for crude. Buoyant crude has meant higher inflation, which in turn has made equities unattractive. Money has flown from equities into crude ETFs. That is also one of the reasons for the crude to do well.

But the fundamental issues like inability to raise production in the medium term, slim spare capacity and delay in the new projects is primarily responsible for the present hike. Crude is by no means a bubble.

There is suggestion that US, which holds 750 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves in bunkers should release 100 million barrels into the markets to torpedo crude prices. I don't think Uncle Sam will do that. How much is 100 million barrels. That is just 5 days of US consumption. Why would US want to risk that?

China and Russia are quietly building their reserves. India is only planning.

What can bring down the prices of crude? An appreciation of the dollar, sharp increase in trading margins and other regulatory steps could be possible reasons for the unwinding of positions.

But the basic fear of shortage is still to play out its full potential. Barring the Strategic Reserves of US, Russia and China, crude is not being hoarded. As the fear increases that crude shortage may happen going into the future, countries may start hoarding crude for future use. That is the time when prices could really shoot up. For that to happen, crude production need not come to a grinding halt. The spare capacity, which is at 1.2 million barrels, just has to vanish.

And as long as crude is going up, there is no need to take out your fishing rods for the equity waters.

(The author is wholetime director of Anagram Stock Broking Ltd)
Oil bubble nahi bubble gum
chabaate jaaooo:cool:;)
 
Re: CRUDE realities/INFLATION infection

Wasnt there Inflation in India.I have not seen Loan interest below 18% per annum all through out my student & past proffessional life.Me & my parents has lived & survived those Periods.
These are not in our Hands.We are here to earn Money,which is in our hands.Who has kept a sword dangling on our head that we have to Long always.Short & earn Money.
The only way retailers can thrive is to play their game- not an easy task by any means . Our previous generation were wiser did not live in a credit based economy. The ugliest form of capitalism is rearing its head now - socialism for the super rich. Is it not easy to "print" money and distribute it among themselves - cause food riots in many countries ; rising energy prices - and 99 % of people who have no clue what is happening?
I could go on and on...
 
U

uasish

Guest
Re: CRUDE realities/INFLATION infection

The only way retailers can thrive is to play their game- not an easy task by any means . Our previous generation were wiser did not live in a credit based economy. The ugliest form of capitalism is rearing its head now - socialism for the super rich. Is it not easy to "print" money and distribute it among themselves - cause food riots in many countries ; rising energy prices - and 99 % of people who have no clue what is happening?
I could go on and on...
Agreed,i can relate to your concern for the present Status,but tell me dont we have to Live with this presently.
Being a trader ,trading day in & out,how this effects me.This will (+)vely effect my Son's planning of taking a flat near Mumbai.
The educative value of these informations ,type of Gloom & Doom scenario will prepeare us for our Future planning,OK but does this effect our daily trading,yes it does in some way,like i can Short/Long more No of contracts now (as the instruments price has come down).:)
 
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