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sinks on a close below 16855
If v apply traditional trend following methods, the med trend stays +tive. But.... the manner in which the index has been dragging its feet over the last 3 months suggests that the rally from March 2009 lows could be in its final stages..... If v extrapolate the move from the 8047 trough, first target occurs at 17867. Again, the first target of the move from 13219 low is at 17971. Sub-minor wave counts narrow down the target further to 17789 (that was achieved on January 6).
In other words, the index could already have formed a medium-term peak at 17790. But v need confirmation in the form of a strong close below 16855 !