Strategy which I am trying to put together i.e. to make a profit without doing anything in between from start to end of expiry.
Sell
3500CE May is 160, 3500PE is 176 – so total premium recd is 336/-
(So we are covered till 3836 on the higher side and 3164 on the lower side. if naked shorts of the above)
Supposing mkt moves above or below these levels then just by this trade we are in deep trouble as losses will be huge above 3800 and below 3200 – therefore to protect ourselves from this,
Buy – 3400 PE @ 133 and 3600 CE @ 114 thereby decreasing our income by 247/-.
Ultimately our premium credit now arrives to 336 – 247 = 53+36 = 89 pts.
Now -
A. Say mkt expires at 3500 then
Total profit remains @ 89 credit premium.
B. Expires at 3600 then
89-100=11 pts loss
C. at 3700 then
3500CE = -200, 3600CE=+100, Premium credit = +89; Total = 11pts loss.
D. at 3800 then
3500CE = -300, 3600CE=+200, Premium credit = +89; Total = 11pts loss.
E. at 3900 then
3500CE = -400, 3600CE=+300, Premium credit = +89; Total = 11pts loss.
So wherever the mkts close at or above 3600, we are at loss of 11pts.
For the downside :
A. Say mkt expires at 3500 then
Total profit remains @ 89 credit premium.
B. Expires at 3400 then
89-100=11 pts loss
C. at 3300 then
3500PE = -200, 3400PE=+100, Premium credit = +89; Total = 11pts loss.
So wherever the mkts close at or below 3400, we are at loss of 11pts.
Conclusion :
If mkts close nearabout 3500 (which by itseff is wishful thinking), we are profiting 89pts on an investment of 1sold call and 1 sold put i.e. 2 lots Nifty which would come to approx Rs. 30000 and need some more for M2M, say 15000/-. The buy call and buy put would be paid from the premium recd.
i.e. 4500 on 50000 inv, comes to 9% ROI.
If mkts move otherwise then max loss is 11 pts or 550 Rs.
Now dear members,
1. Is this ROI good? Considering that we will NOT BE DOING ANYTHING AT ALL INBETWEEN.
2. Any flaws in the logical end result of the profit/loss generated, something which I may have missed and IS a silly mistake
3. A possibility of loss making means failure and does not give the end result I am looking at therefore would suggest members to give a suggestion to improve end result.
Wishful thinking
Another possibility is that say after 7-10 days, the premiums would have reduced and ending the trade there would result in a better profit and/or ROI, depends on the market at that point of time and the sentiments which make the premiums a bit wayward..