Are Markets Random?

[throwawayacc123]

Hi All,

Based on the research done so far, I find that people claim that 90-95% of the traders are losers (in intraday trading). My confusion is that, how can the vast majority is always wrong each single day. Are we all fools? Isn't this a pattern??? and a system kept in place to make people lose money. I doubt there are some privileged elites having access to high level market data and making money each single day and the vast majority always keep complaining about the trading system, sometimes the software, sometimes psychology and what not.....

Please guide me here as I am in a great confusion to continue trading. I have stopped it for sometime now and just watching markets.

This is a very good question asked by a beginner. I generally don't like answering such questions , but i can sense the frustration in your question. So here goes.

My advice to beginners and newbies is don't waste your time asking questions that don't help you reach your target. In this case , this question does not help you because you are doubting the very foundation of trading. If markets are random , every single trader would either break even or lose in the long term, but we can see successful traders all the time.

What you should do is think how the other 5% are doing it? That is a better question to ask IMO.

and yes keep thinking to find answer to that question. No one will give you the answer to that on a silver plate.The answer to that question has to be earned. No mentor/magic strategy or some post on the internet will give an answer to that.


If you are getting frustrated and have not quit, you are going in the right direction..

Good luck on your journey!!

 

[deba72]

No risk control is the reason...many times the losing positions are kept hidden from the RMS to avoid losses and liquidation.

ST

Yes, exactly.

IMO, nothing is random in this world. The laws of nature acts as the greatest barrier against randomness. Even if something appears random apparently, there is some pattern playing out in the background. Microscopic randomness slowly emerges as a pattern when a macro view is taken. Lower timeframe 'chaos' becomes 'order ' in a higher timeframe. At nano level, movement of molecules follow Brownian random motion.. but mechanical and chemical properties of the element remains same and predictable.. e.g melting point of Iron or boiling point of water does not change because of the randomness of their molecular motions.

Question is who can recognizes the pattern and who can't...

I am a Bengali and almost all Bengalis regard themselves as good poets ! And a famous Bengali poet wrote " Sobai kabi noy..Keu Keu Kabi.. " which roughly means..not everyone is a poet..but few of them are...

I believe, same applies to trading... Not everyone can become a "successful" trader... only very few can... but like we read in calculus " limit x tends to zero "... we always tend and strive to become successful traders.. but many of us can't... and there is no shame in it.. just like not every doctor is a great doctor or every lawyer is not a great supreme court lawyer.. And Charles Darwin explained it long back why it is so...

The reason lies "within" ourselves..so before pointing fingers at others and circumstances and operators and Fed and ECB and Brexit and RBI and ALGO and HFT and conspiracy theories... we must point finger at ourselves..

And only those who can find the answer "within"..will go on to become successful traders !

 

[Smart_trade]

When I was a losing/breakeven trader, even then I never had even a thought that I should quit trading . I knew that trading is profitable and I have to make some improvements in me to make it happen.I find that without this passion it is difficult to succeed in this business. I have not found a single successful trader who is not passionate about the markets.

Smart_trade

 

[throwawayacc123]

When I was a losing/breakeven trader, even then I never had even a thought that I should quit trading . I knew that trading is profitable and I have to make some improvements in me to make it happen.I find that without this passion it is difficult to succeed in this business. I have not found a single successful trader who is not passionate about the markets.

Smart_trade

Thats the main problem with most wannabe traders ST, people are more passionate about money than markets.