Backtesting and trading camarilla pivots

[praveenpious]

There are various versions of camarilla equation floating on the internet. Only one among them produces the most accurate values.

Furthermore, the breakout targets listed in the formula (found online) is merely an approximation.

 

[razx5]

There are various versions of camarilla equation floating on the internet. Only one among them produces the most accurate values.

Furthermore, the breakout targets listed in the formula (found online) is merely an approximation.

googled thoroughly regarding camarilla..most of them saying the same..i need some thorugh xplanation regarding trading btwn h3 and l3 levels..i do not agree at all with the concept of going long above l3 for a tgt of h3..8 oyut of 10 times it is not achieved..same way vice versa..i fell buy above H1 for at tgt of H3 and sell below L1 for atgt of L3 gives some what ok results...anyways if u come across any good article regarding camarilla please pst it here

 

[tools&tradingideas]

I have done a lot of calculations using these Camarilla levels. I ended up using the H3, H4, L3, L4, (H3+H4)/2 and (L3+L4)/2 levels. Standard rules, 5 minute timeframe. I used it on a single contract for a few US futures like TF, EMD and Oil (CL). Results in 2008 were very good, in 2009 good and in 2010 starting to give worse and worse results that I became too scared to use it. Unfortunatelly it is still the best working system I found and it seems to give a bit better results this year. I am reexamining it and found this article => PDF can be downloaded via this link: http://www.onlinetradersforum.com/showthread.php?t=437813

today I programmed this in. Using a scaleout type system. Buying 3 contracts and scaling out as the article suggests. Only for the breakout long and short modes I used levels 5,6 and 7 as targets. Results are not too bad bad when the market is not moving it can hurt pretty bad.

Any other systems out there that give good results?

 

[Nihilistic]

Document not accessible, can you post it here?

Regards,

 

[praveenpious]

- post -

The attached PDF is nothing but the one found in sourabh's (radha55's) website. Same old strategies, which most of the members of this forum are already aware of ..

 

[tools&tradingideas]

The attached PDF is nothing but the one found in sourabh's (radha55's) website. Same old strategies, which most of the members of this forum are already aware of ..

ok. As mentioned the US futures that I traded and tested, YM, ES, TF, EMD, NQ, CL, NG clearly show that if the volatility drops the system performs badly. Currently in the USA with all the money printing, every day pumping these fake dollars in the market the volatility in futures like ES and YM is very low, the market just can't go down, except for an orchestrated flash crash. NQ, EMD, TF and CL however still work although in 2009 they worked nearly twice as good. Not sure but I believe the money printing will halt in June 2011. I expect the volatility to increase. This year the results are starting to get better again and I will resume trading this system on Monday.

To get smoother results I trade a portfolio of futures.

Camarilla is still the best system, which is available for all, I tested. Any other known systems that people are enthousiastic about?

 

[praveenpious]

I have posted "something" which is conveniently "not taken into account" by the members who post in this particular thread. I stated that the system works flawlessly on "certain" markets.

Try to find out the major difference in between those markets and Indian markets - once you understand that simple "aspect" you will realize that camarilla works (to a significant extent) on this market too.

I have a firm belief system that in order to be successful in this business, one has to start thinking "outside the conventional realms". Being spoon-fed might help you temporarily - in the long term you will realize that day-trading is not meant for everyone!

Good Luck ..

 

[Nihilistic]

Very well said, Praveen. I have a little doubt about the statement of 'outside the conventional realms.' I read it somewhere few days ago that one must adapt a herd mentality which usually helps catching up well with the trend. At the same time, I've read many successful(?) traders mentioning to not think the way the group of commoners think. Quite tricky to understand, at least for the rookies like me. Shed some light.

Regards,

 

[praveenpious]

@Nihilistic

I am no professional in the markets. I have a lot to learn; yet, I strive hard only to succeed in this business of day-trading.

According to me, day-trading is very simple if you stick to the basics. As some of the experienced members (of this forum) have stated on countless occasions, it is us who try to complicate the things. While day-trading, you just need to know when to stay away from the markets, when to jump in to make profits and when to cut your losses (i.e. if the anticipated move does not occur). People swear by their pet indicators without even realizing that they are merely taking things to a much more complicated level. But hey if the objective stays the same (i.e.to make some dough), I find no fault in them trying to complicate things. I only do it in a more simpler and effective way!

What I am trying to imply here is - stick to the basics, experiment with them (not just on the Indian markets, but also with the International markets) and come up with your own customized solution to make profits regularly from the stock markets.

If I can do it, anyone can. It is just that people aren't looking at the right direction.

 

[Nihilistic]

Good words of encouragement when you said, 'if you can do it, anyone can.' I understand how complicated it gets using all sorts of indicators, as I do it myself. Even though the objective remains the same, it loses out most of the times and such complications make the situations even worse.

Please shed some more light on being simple and straight. What sort of analysis you do, and how do you know when to go ahead and when to stay out. My intention is definitely not to make you reveal your entire personal system whatsoever, just to keep learning from someone better known than myself, little by little, wherever and whenever I can.

Thanks again,