BraViSa TempleTree-India Market Calls

[d_s_ramesh]

Yet another nail biting session closes with an up tick on the hourly chart. Swing shorts need to exit here above 5010 spot. Spot future discount which was nearing 15 points while the trade got filled, narrowed to 8 points towards close.

As the market closed near our short cover levels, any adverse opening in the next session will have an impact on our position. That is range markets on the trend following systems.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Inside day on NIFTY

A day of inside range for NIFTY with its close, edging up marginally. Range market continues to get tight. 5050 levels seem to be giving a strong resistance on NIFTY, range markets oscillate between high and low of the range. The present range being 5100-4950, NIFTY is trading at the bottom of the range with MACD having a bullish crossover before any clear divergence. Histogram forming a peak above zero is contradicting one another, indecision continues.

NIFTY needs to re-test 4800 level lows again to gain any bullish strength, if it turns up without strength it would only result in a false up move adding strength to the next bear phase of the market.

With daily charts going tight, hourly has started giving streaks of whipsaw trades. It was a dramatic day throughout the session today. As the trend opened out, a short call failed to get triggered & with NIFTY closing above EMA, Long signals came through. Even the long call was not triggered; instead it took to strong bearishness. Finally shorts got triggered, but were not having good strength further, it kept oscillating at the lows and closed giving an uptick on the hourly charts.

Strength of the Index rating towards its trendiness in the market is very weak.

An uptick when there is a short running position means a short cover signal, it has come on the closing bar. With gaps ruling the roof in present turbulent times, it is going to be a wild guess where the markets will open in the next session.

At the time of this writing Europe is trading positive, what will be the closing of the US markets is too early to judge now. Gold prices taking a dip after giving anal time high yesterday and stock markets looking positive at the moment is a bullish sign. We will exit swing short positions at the opening price in the next session, while trend positions will hold to stop losses until further signals come out.

On the other hand if weakness continues and we open gap down, 5010 on spot is not taken off, please hold to shorts in swing for further exit signals
It is a testing time of patience for trend traders, like in a single trade where we give back earned profits to stay with the trend; a system too operates in the same way. It was a joy ride for the past 16 months for the trend followers, so we need to give back some of our gains in following the system. This may tempt the new entrants to search for a new system or move to return to mean trading systems, caution is advised here, as return to mean systems just keep spitting out loser after loser in a trending market.

Trust your system; be with it on its ups and downs, long runs will prove the efficiency of it.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

The chart of today's calls

Today we had 3 calls on the NIFTY hourly chart of which 2 were not triggered and one got filled. The summary of it in the hourly charts.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Swing short covered, Trend open

Short position on swing system gets covered on the breach of yesterdays last bar high as market opens up. Trend goes off screen, hence no reversal to the long trade here. Trend short trade is open and needs to be covered above 5036 spot. Both positions are at loss, indecision in the market continues.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Long Nifty Futures above 5034 on trend position. Stop 4970 on future.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Move stop below 5007 on futures for the running long position. Market is changing direction with every unfolding hour.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Bullishness sets in......

NIFTY breaches 5050 resistance with power,trend long position gains strength. Take off exit stop, hold with entry stop. Watch the drama being played on the Global arena, Europe is sinking and with that news we are roaring.

Has India got its own direction? For quite some days now we are above China and now this news adds more euphoria, rejoice buddies INDIA is going to be a super power one day. Now it may be a distant dream, but sure to happen.

NIFTY futures moving to premium is an added bonus too.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

NIFTY starts rocking

NIFTY starts rocking by the hour. Close to its next resistance 5100, the speed and strength with which is is moving shows that it will eventually break through.

Swing system yet to open trades as the market struggled quite a bit in the value zone to break out, it may take some time for NIFTY chart to trend and only then will the swing system get activated for trades.

With the hourly histogram gaining more strength, the up move is likely to continue unless if there is a serious break on the global arena. Though Europe is stamped out the big fat guy US is laughing loud. Let's see what he has in store.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

NIFTY is flying

NIFTY is flying, brokerages all around are spewing buy calls on various stocks from different sectors. It is great to watch life coming back into the markets.

To be frank even posting lacked enthusiasm when markets sunk, joy returns now.

UTILITIES, METALS, AUTOMOBILES, PHARMA, TELECOM it is amazing to watch every one joining the rally. Above 4% gains on many index stocks. Trendfollowers enjoy the ride.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Strong trend .should we believe?

Daily chart of NIFTY closed up turning bullish within the broad range. Present range is 5150-4950, 200 points of maneuvering space in between to oscillate with. Daily chart is not in trend, price is coiling between EMAs, which is not a good sign for trend followers, while return to mean trading systems get a fairly good opportunity. It is left to the type of trading signals they use; it should be prudent enough to catch the bottom and tops for reversal. The market at present does not have small ranges when it turns around. So, the gains are likely to be very low and risk/reward not favorable on any trades.

With both Weekly and Daily in non-trend, no trades in the daily chart are likely to give any profits. The same goes with daily/hourly. Hourly is opening out and is likely to go into trend very soon. Will it break the 5150 resistance? As of todays closing there is tremendous strength, but sideways market loose all their charm when they hang behind the Dow, FTSE, CAC, DAX etc., the probabilities are high; reality is to be seen in the next session. On the hourly chart 35 stocks from the NIFTY component list are in strong trend, this is an indicator that the index will open out to trendiness.

At present we are running a Trend long position on the hourly chart which got filled at 5034 with a stop of 4970 on futures. Spot/ future difference turning to premium was an added advantage to this trade and the markets too. Trend traders hold on to your longs till further directions come from the charts.
As we are writing have the US markets having a fantastic bout on their exchanges. Above 2% gains on all the indices are seen and all are gaining strength too. WE trade the charts as they pan out, there are bound to be losing trades with any system, the same we have kept as an open book for every one to witness here. We have run a streak of losing trade just recently and the running long trade too has open profits, we do not know where it will close. But disciplined approach to the markets pays handsome rewards in the long run. It is a real life experience.