BraViSa TempleTree-India Market Calls

[d_s_ramesh]

GMDC & LOVABLE are under strong correction on the daily, while their weekly is strong, hence a low risk long trade on the way down has higher probabilities of a good winning trade.

There are chances of stop getting hit too, in such an event the next uptick will give us another opportunity to go long.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Report for OSWAL CHEMICALS & FERTILIZERS LTD.

Earnings Rank 97.14 out of 100.
Price Relative Strength Rank 99.77 out of 100.
Sales and Net profit Growth Rank 96.90 out of 100
Composite Rank is 86.66 out of 862 stocks taken into the BTT tracking Index.

2QFY12 earnings growth of 364% along with a consistent Net Profit Margins at 60.28% which has seen a growth of 305.39% over the same quarter of the previous year. Sales have declined marginally by 5.49% in the Q2 quarter.

Similarly the stocks Trailing Twelve Months report too shows high strength. Current quarter TTM has registered 583% growth on its EPS, 307% growth on its Net Profit Margin with a NPM of 49.46%, this followed by a Sales growth of 56.28%.

The stocks price has dropped 40% from its 52 week high and is yet holding the second position in Price Ranking making it one of the best stocks in the presently weak market. On the monthly charts the stocks price is reaching sweet zone after a very strong bullish move which topped at 101.25. On the weekly charts, price has formed a good flat base at 60 levels and has a resistance at 76.00 levels. The stock is attracting very less volumes at the current price levels which have shown a decline of 92% against its 50 week volume average. The stock has a good potential for a long trade on the breach of resistance with higher volumes.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Navin Fluorine A very strong stock for the moment.

Earnings Rank 97.38%.
Price Relative Strength Rank 93.98%.
Sales & Net Profit Growth Rank 97.38%.
Mutual Funds Holdings Rank 97.80%.
Composite Rank 97.69% out of the 862 stocks taken into the BTT tracking Index.

Navin Fluorine, a one kind of rare stock at the moment when the market is struggling to hold strength with all the big time stocks losing ground to their leadership positions. The FY12-Q2 earnings growth is a robust 996% increase in comparison with the same quarter the previous year. This stock has been giving triple digit earnings growth for the past 3 quarters now. The Net profit margins are steady and holding up above 30% since the two quarters now and Sales growth is again in triple digits for the last 2 quarters with a steady increase in Q2 to 144.87% against the same quarter of the previous year.

Trailing Twelve Month results too are showing good strength, the current quarter TTM has registered 290.38% increase in EPS, 26.07% increase in Net Profit margins and a 70.49% increase in sales growth. Almost all the ranking fields show top strength. The stock has been holding the top 90-100% slot in the BTT tracking Indexs Composite ranking since 28th Sept 2011.

On the technical side the stock is in a clear bullish trend on the weekly as well as monthly charts. As the stock is approaching value zone on the weekly chart volume is seen drying up, which is a good indication of a distribution as weaker hands are getting out of the stock. Once into the value zone take entry for both short term as well as long term gains.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

TVS Motors - a leading 2 & 3 Wheeler Industry stock.

TVS Motors is one of the strong stocks among the Auto 2&3 wheeler Industry. In the last quarter TVS gave an EPS growth of 40.03% against its same quarter of the previous year. Whereas Q1-FY12 showed a decline of EPS growth to the extent of 27.20%. Net profit margins are not very interesting which is at 3.84% and the NPM Growth is at 13.31%. Sales growth is 23.34% which is declining for the past 3 quarters, Q3-FY11 it was at 51.14%, Q4-FY11 it slowed down to 34.24% and Q1-FY12 it dropped to 25.35%.

Registering an EPS growth of above 40% with a declining sales growth is a good positive for this stock. But, net profit margins going so tight affects bullish strength.

On the TTM report we get a better picture too. Current TTM Quarter EPS growth is registered at 67.24%, NPM, 3.32% and NPM Growth 27.20% with Sales growth at 36.42%. There is no smooth uptrend seen in the growth percentages, it is showing volatility. If we have to trade a stock it should be a super strong stock belonging to the strongest sector and Industry groups. This stock some how does not come close to the super stock listing.

Rankings for TVS as on 8th Nov 2011 against 865 stocks in our BTT Index tracking list. The list is made using 1-100 as the ranking criteria.
EPS Rank 73.66. Price relative strength rank 60.76. Sales & Net profit growth rank 75.45. Mutual fund ownership 5% of the companies outstanding shares. BTT composite rank 71.30.

It is normally seen that stocks coming in the top 10% of the rankings only perform better and almost always out beat the market averages. TVS goes back in every listing below 90. Whereas on the technical side the stock is in a clear bullish trend, which gives us an opportunity to trade long for short term gains. The entry levels for the current week will be 61.25 for first entry, 60.15 for second entry and stop at 59.05 for a target of 70.45. This trade has a 4.87 time reward to risk.

Wait for the price to reach entry levels to trade in.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

GUJARAT GAS : Long trade on the Impulse system hit stop today, The trade had a target of 465.15, the stock fell short of target by 8 points and turned around to take off entry stop.

GOLD ETF : Long trade with first entry in progress on the Gold ETF charts, the weekly chart of Gold is retracing a clear bearish divergence for the running week. There are possibilities of the index going further ahead, but bearishness is confirmed. So, be prepared for some weakness in Gold prices in the coming months.

OSWAL CHEM : This stock turned bearish on the weekly charts, built a good base at 60 levels & has taken off with a bang. The stock has registered 903% jump in volume against its 50 day average volumes. This stock has a long trade entry at 58.15 on the weekly charts. Lower levels attracted lower volumes and have strengthened the base for the next run. This stock is the Number one stock in our market in composite ranking since 1st August 2011. There is a pivot buy for long term positions at 76.40 in this stock. With the huge surge in price combined with volume support there is all likeliness of the entry getting filled in the coming days. Unfortunately all our Mutual Funds have missed out on this wonderful stock, None of them have any exposure in the stock.

Some stocks that look attractive for long trades are ARVIND, M&M, NAVIN FLUORINE & TVS MOTORS.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Any stock to invest in this falling market?

Markets are tumbling every day, with some issues surfacing and posing tough challenge to the investors. With such prevailing weakness, are there still some good stocks left for investors to hold on with or get into new positions?

There are few and the sad story is that not even a hand full of them come out to bear the richness in them to give a buy call. Apart from Oswal Fertilizers and Navin Flourine among the top 10% of the ranking list non of them qualify entries. Stronger stocks like Adithya Birla Nuvo, Lumax Industries, Arvind Mills etc though have their price strength ruling high & are giving good numbers in the combined rankings, they do not show accelerating growth patterns.

Some of them have even reported losses in the current quarter. Buy into a stock a stock that is a real winner, having its current and the past quarters with accelerating EPS growth of above 30%, Net profit shows growth and all these are supported by equivalent Sales growth. If either one is going in the opposite direction, it is inviting trouble if we invest in those stocks.

Among the Blue Chips, that many brokerages have been recommending for investments, there is none which shows any kind of strength. Taking the advice of so called big time brokerages, Fund houses or Hedge Funds please do not commit precious capital which almost likely to go south ways.

As much as possible get out of your positions when weakness sets in, wait on the side lines to find a real great opportunity to trade in. After all we are here to make money, not do charity by funding the greedy fund managers or brokerages. In the past month none of the Mutual funds have added any stock into their portfolio, this in itself is a clear indicator that all is not well int he markets. When Mutual funds are moving into either cash or shifting their positions to safer bets like debt and money market instruments, there is no point for prudent investor to be in the market only to watch your capital eroding.

Oswal is one of the best stocks at present, it has formed a resistance at 71.50 levels, the stock has also formed a clear base pattern at 60 levels. On the move up trade long at 71.50 break with a stop loss of 8% from your entry price, this stock should give fabulous returns.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Markets at 2-year low. Is this a good time to start buying shares?

This was a question raised in the money control website today and the votes received were to 'buy'. This is how lay investors think and get caught up in losing precious capital. Markets are down and there is a reason for it, it is like catching a falling knife to buy stocks now. There is not one single good reason to think of buying stocks now. Just for the sake that the markets are at lows if we go bottom fishing, we will not get fish but will surely loose the net.

Second quarter results of almost all the front line corporates have showed declining performance. Most of the Industries themselves are showing poor performance, there are very few stocks that are showing strength in results, and even in them price is not in a hurry to give any reasonable buy signals.

Price of many so called Blue chips have almost eroded above 50% from their high's. If at all any buying is happening in the markets these days, it is because of those investors buying with the same answer that they have chosen for the question today.

Mutual funds who are a much more informed lot than the individual investors in the markets are not buyers now, FII transactions record shows a very clear decline, they have been net sellers for quite some time now. When all those who know what is the market are not investing how will the market or any stock for that matter give any good returns?

Any investment should earn returns after we invest, it should not deplete. Trading or investing is not always a win-win game, but knowing for sure you are going to loose or at least 80% chance of loosing, if we take positions, it is literal gamble. Then after they loose all the savings, brand the market activity itself as gambling.

With the way the economy, Industry and the Global situations are now, there are very less chances that any markets world over will see any good returns, It is best to liquidate positions when markets offer a small relief rally and stay on the sidelines till there are some clear signs of strength in both the economies growth as well as growth in the companies that you will want to invest in.

 

[rkkarnani]

Markets at 2-year low. Is this a good time to start buying shares?

This was a question raised in the money control website today and the votes received were to 'buy'. This is how lay investors think and get caught up in losing precious capital. Markets are down and there is a reason for it, it is like catching a falling knife to buy stocks now. There is not one single good reason to think of buying stocks now. Just for the sake that the markets are at lows if we go bottom fishing, we will not get fish but will surely loose the net.

Second quarter results of almost all the front line corporates have showed declining performance. Most of the Industries themselves are showing poor performance, there are very few stocks that are showing strength in results, and even in them price is not in a hurry to give any reasonable buy signals.

Price of many so called Blue chips have almost eroded above 50% from their high's. If at all any buying is happening in the markets these days, it is because of those investors buying with the same answer that they have chosen for the question today.

Mutual funds who are a much more informed lot than the individual investors in the markets are not buyers now, FII transactions record shows a very clear decline, they have been net sellers for quite some time now. When all those who know what is the market are not investing how will the market or any stock for that matter give any good returns?

Any investment should earn returns after we invest, it should not deplete. Trading or investing is not always a win-win game, but knowing for sure you are going to loose or at least 80% chance of loosing, if we take positions, it is literal gamble. Then after they loose all the savings, brand the market activity itself as gambling.

With the way the economy, Industry and the Global situations are now, there are very less chances that any markets world over will see any good returns, It is best to liquidate positions when markets offer a small relief rally and stay on the sidelines till there are some clear signs of strength in both the economies growth as well as growth in the companies that you will want to invest in.

A very well written piece of Post... good guidance for lay investor who just look at the price and NoT at the value!!! Thanks!!

 

[d_s_ramesh]

If Nifty manages to close with its MACD histogram having an uptick this week, it will form a classic bullish pattern. There will be a relief rally coming soon, those who were late to exit losing positions or even had missed good target exits in the previous run up, can take the opportunity now to exit long trades.

A bullish pattern on the weekly charts would mean a good move upwards for NIFTY to reach the next resistance close to 5200 levels. For new long trades in the coming rally, it would be prudent to select the strongest Sector, the Strongest Industry in that sector and the best stock from that Industry.

As of today Financial sector is the leading sector ranking number one in the 10 Sectoral indices order. Financial Services is the strongest Sub-Sector in this sector. Term lending Institutions Industry is the best in the Financial Services sub-sector. which ranks 4th among the 137 Industry groups that the economy is divided into at the moment. In this Industry, IDFC is the stock that has the top ranking.

Now we have to check with the stocks chart and its fundamentals, this stock had a 72.21% growth in its EPS over the corresponding quarter of last year. Sales growth is at 50.97%, Net profit margin at 32.05% which amounts to 14.32% growth over its same quarter of the previous year.

The weekly chart of the stock has hit multiple bullish divergences which have failed in the previous attempts to generate a good long trade. In the current bear run, the stock has managed to keep above its previous lows. With the MACD Histogram showing good strength, an uptick in this weeks close would generate a good bullish direction for the stock. In the up move we can expect to have the target at 140-145 zone.

In the days left for this weeks close, we will have the opportunity to follow the best sector every day and have a minimum of 5 stocks to select from, by this week end, for the next bull run, in case the major Market Averages give a bullish direction.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

TTK Prestige for a long trade.

This stock has its EPS and RS ratings above 80 which gets us a reason for an analysis to find a possible trade on the long side. EPS Rank 85.00 and RS rank 97.46 as on 30th Nov 2011, followed by SNG 83.45, ADR 73.70, Fund sponsorship B & Industry group rank E-.

TTK Prestige, belongs to the Domestic Appliances group which lagging down in the industry group order, a rating of E- puts the industry at the lowest order of ranking. Fund sponsorship rank is B which is in the 61-80% funds sponsorship band, the latest monthly report show good accumulation by funds. Among the 12 fund schemes holding the stock 5 were sellers which were marginal while, the rest 7 have added their holdings. Among them HDFC Mid Cap opportunities fund has added above 41500 shores to its already existing holdings. The stock has 30% of its capital in free float which puts lesser number of shares in the hands of the public to hold. Accumulation is being done at a slow pace; there are chances for some more days of sideways movement.

The company is managing to have double digit NPM growth which is still at the lower end and needs improvement. Sales growth was robust at 51.85% and EPS growth at 54.30% against the same quarter of the previous year. With the Q2 result doing very badly on the growth front almost for whole of the economy, the growth percentages achieved by TTK Prestige puts it above the rest of the poor performers.

Technically the stock is in the correction mode going into sideways moves for the past 3 months which has now formed a good pivot at 2900 levels. Weekly MACD histogram has retraced a good bullish divergence while the monthly trend is bullish and very strong. Long trades can be established on pivot break, if it happens with high volumes, which at present is getting lower on the base formation, it will add more strength to the trade. While most of the prominent stocks in the market have corrected more than 40% from their highs TTK Prestige has been able to maintain at 16.60% off high at the time of this writing. There are higher chances of the stock recording further new highs in the next run.