Advice - Caution
Indian Equities - Downside Risks Building
Domestic inflation is rising rapidly and the central bank has been tightening policy. Money growth is already slowing sharply, which typically heralds a slowdown in Indian's business cycle. With the P/E ratio at 22 (among the highest globally), stocks offer very little valuation cushion to protect against deteriorating monetary conditions and slowing growth.
More technically, the advance/decline line for the Indian stock exchange has peaked, which typically serves as a warning signal for a rollover in share prices. Banking issues appear most vulnerable as they are directly exposed to rising interest rates and the ensuing slowdown in credit demand. Bottom line: long only investors should stay clear of Indian stocks, while hedge funds should watch for shorting opportunities.
Thanks and Regards
Supratik
Indian Equities - Downside Risks Building
Domestic inflation is rising rapidly and the central bank has been tightening policy. Money growth is already slowing sharply, which typically heralds a slowdown in Indian's business cycle. With the P/E ratio at 22 (among the highest globally), stocks offer very little valuation cushion to protect against deteriorating monetary conditions and slowing growth.
More technically, the advance/decline line for the Indian stock exchange has peaked, which typically serves as a warning signal for a rollover in share prices. Banking issues appear most vulnerable as they are directly exposed to rising interest rates and the ensuing slowdown in credit demand. Bottom line: long only investors should stay clear of Indian stocks, while hedge funds should watch for shorting opportunities.
Thanks and Regards
Supratik