Bulls, Bears & The Lion

[findvikas]

Today is going to be a fun day, US markets have closed down by 1.25% wherein S&P 500 has breached the critical support line coming from the March 2009s lows which could trigger a global sell off and further rally of dollar. My personal view is that Nifty is going to touch down 4500 in some time sooner than later and Big Boy Reliance will lead this correction and has a downside target of 985 ( mind you I suggested to sell at any price above 1080 )

I am very negative on Banking & Oil & Marketing companies.
Sector wise:
- SBI & ICICI will make the most denting to Banking sector
- BHARTI will drag entire telecom space
- RIL, ONGC will drag energy sector
- IT has some bit of strength for a short period and can outperform the broader market with USD value increase

The effect of US is visible on entire Asian markets, most of them trading below 1% and India should open around 4995-5000 level. Sustenance above 4994 mark is very crucial for further up move.. below 4994 bears will take charge of market and take you for a free ride to Kanyakumari or even Sri Lanka

If you are not a mid/long term player then I would advise to get aside and watch the fight between bulls & bears. Just be spectator and not try to trade in this choppy market unless we have a clear trend. If you are a long term investor then this is probably going to be your last chance when you will get to pick few best companies at the best bargain rate.

I am very bullish on RIL in long term and have a target price of above 1400 in a year or two, Maruti is going to lead the Auto pack and Bharti will once again outpace all others in Telecom space. I would prefer AXISBANK & DENABANK over other banks. Keep on accumulating these stocks on every fall and forget about daily market moves.

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- RIL tanked another 2.7% (7% from the suggested level, anything above 1080)
- BHARTI dip 2%
- ONGC down 1.3%
- SBIN down 1% , ICICI down 2%

IT on the other hand was holding gains TCS up 1% from suggested level, KFA also up 2 rs from suggested level

 

[findvikas]

I am long in DENABANK but it has corrected from 90 level to 82 level in past 4-5 days.........what's ahead ?........shall we again see 90+ level this month ?
Please post your detailed analysis on DENABANK.

I do not think so, what is your buying level? It had broken the support line below 84 and I do not think it will be able to bounce back anytime soon.

A retest of 73.8 is possible.

 

[findvikas]

NYSE Trading Surges to Record on Expiration, S&P 500 Changes
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2YAbZ0RMc5Y&pos=1

Friday being the last day of trading in FnO for NYSE it had a record high volume after 19th September 2008. It could turn out to be a precursor for a violent move on either side.

 

[stockBond]

I do not think so, what is your buying level? It had broken the support line below 84 and I do not think it will be able to bounce back anytime soon.

A retest of 73.8 is possible.

As per Motilal Oswal analysis report DENABANK is highly undervalued and proper valuation comes around 103


See the link for more information

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news_htm...Oswal_Bank.pdf

 

[findvikas]

I am not fundamental analyst, I can read charts and tell you the targets as per the charts.

Here is the monthly, weekly & daily chart... all of them shouting SELL

See the monthly chart making the Hammer and closing at the 23.6% retracement so far.
The hammer on monthly chart is very much similar to the hammer that you can see on the weekly chart. This hammer on a uptrending market means that selling pressure is coming at higher levels and a reversal in trend is possible. Weekly chart has already confirm this reversal. Now if you look at the daily chart it made a Dark Cloud pattern and confirm the trend reversal by making a outside bearish candle of 14th Dec.

Daily chart closed below 50% retracement.. which means more correction can be expected. Weekly chart suggest that a touch of 38.2% is very much possible to take you down to 78.33 and max at 50% which is 73.8. Monthly chart can take it atleast to the 74.7 level.

I am very positive on DENABANK in long term and its actually an accumulate from me till 70 and BUY below 70 till 60.. where you will just hold it for target of over 120-140 in long term maybe 1-2 years.

 

[findvikas]

The worst is not over yet for US and chart starts to show that in advance... seven more banks shut down (total 140 this year) and now Citadel will file for bankrupcy protection today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aA4tDKBIB6Ek&pos=2
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/citadel-to-file-bankruptcy-as-soon-as-sunday_431769.html

 

[findvikas]

Intraday Nifty Levels for the day : 12/21/2009

Opening around 4995
BUY above 5000, Target: 5015,5035,5050,5063 , SL: 4990
Sell below 4990, Target: 4950, 4935, 4900, 4895 , SL: 5000

If market sustain above 4995 for initial 15 minutes then there is possibility of further up move, fail to hold on to 5000 mark will confirm the weakness & fear in the mind of bulls.

Overall market mood is bearish

 

[findvikas]

Intraday Nifty Strategy

Short @ 5006 , Avg till 5016 and SL at 5023 , Go long at 5023 if it sustains.
Long @ 4970 , Avg. till 4963 and SL at 4953 , Go short at 4953 if it breaks and sustain.

Expiry Options Strategy
Short 5100CE around 5015, Avg till 5050, SL @ 5110
Short 4800PE around 4965, Avg till 4900, SL @ 4880

 

[findvikas]

Market down but WIPRO, TCS & KFA all holding in over 1% gains.
WIPRO has target of 710 now.. suggested to buy 680CA @ 9 on 16th Dec... trading at 22 now...

Liked it ?

 

[findvikas]

Intraday... Buy Ranbaxy above 537.10, sl 530.60, tgt.549.90
Can be applied to Futures or ITM Options..