Candles, Volume, and OBV- Stay On the Right Side!
- Thread starter Linus
- Start date
Subjective analysis : Anything that can't be coded into a computer program as a "rule" and backtested with historical data.
Hope that clarifies the confusion,Sunil
Hope that clarifies the confusion,Sunil
Of course I know that dear, I will come back later, and would like to put the same question to Winstonn on his buy Monday sell Friday strategy. Was that not subjective? Besides, when I asked him whether this strategy was back tested, there was no answer from him!!
Anyway, I will surely come back on this tomorrow.
Good night Sir,
ss
Last edited:
Hi sunil,
Buy Monday Sell Friday was a not a good method, i admit. This was a thought of mine and i had framed objective rules for it if you go through those posts.
As i did not backtest it , i had clearly mentioned that we would be looking for the forward testing and would wait and watch for the performance of the strategy.
See , am not challenging your method, but for making real money one should have objective method that works consistently in any market for years and have atleast more than 60% success rate.
Any book can give me the kind of explanation you have given, but it is really challenging to design a objective based srtategy from your explanation.
Accept all this positively as a way to grow in this 5 % success rate Trading Business.
Regards,
Winston
Buy Monday Sell Friday was a not a good method, i admit. This was a thought of mine and i had framed objective rules for it if you go through those posts.
As i did not backtest it , i had clearly mentioned that we would be looking for the forward testing and would wait and watch for the performance of the strategy.
See , am not challenging your method, but for making real money one should have objective method that works consistently in any market for years and have atleast more than 60% success rate.
Any book can give me the kind of explanation you have given, but it is really challenging to design a objective based srtategy from your explanation.
Accept all this positively as a way to grow in this 5 % success rate Trading Business.
Regards,
Winston
Hi Winston,
Cool it boy! Yes, indeed, it is difficult and challenging, and my post is kinda a starter / for anybody who wants to know the basics behind filtering candlesticks with a volume based indicator. There are many newcomers on this board and they will I hope surely find this interesting.
This of course can be seen in any book, or articles, as you have rightly said, but then we won't need a forum like this in the first place.
Regards,
ss
Cool it boy! Yes, indeed, it is difficult and challenging, and my post is kinda a starter / for anybody who wants to know the basics behind filtering candlesticks with a volume based indicator. There are many newcomers on this board and they will I hope surely find this interesting.
This of course can be seen in any book, or articles, as you have rightly said, but then we won't need a forum like this in the first place.
Regards,
ss
U
Hi Winston,
Cool it boy! Yes, indeed, it is difficult and challenging, and my post is kinda a starter / for anybody who wants to know the basics behind filtering candlesticks with a volume based indicator. There are many newcomers on this board and they will I hope surely find this interesting.
This of course can be seen in any book, or articles, as you have rightly said, but then we won't need a forum like this in the first place.
Regards,
ss
Cool it boy! Yes, indeed, it is difficult and challenging, and my post is kinda a starter / for anybody who wants to know the basics behind filtering candlesticks with a volume based indicator. There are many newcomers on this board and they will I hope surely find this interesting.
This of course can be seen in any book, or articles, as you have rightly said, but then we won't need a forum like this in the first place.
Regards,
ss
System based trading is not the best.However objective view is 100% necessary to protect us from our Fear/Greed influenced clouded mind.No System based trading has been proved till date to be THE best,even the Neural Network based Logics ,(More objective becoz it constantly improvises,duplicating an objective human brain) for any Trade initiation
is yet to establish (even after 8 yrs of use in Capital Mkt) its supremacy.
Hence Devoid of Fear/Greed ,machines do not Trade better than
best.
Asish
60%? Most trend following systems have a 40-45% winning trades (I'm not using the term "accuracy" here) and yet generate a positive expectancy per trade. An example of a simple macd crossover test (which I had posted earlier)
http://www.traderji.com/attachments...e-people-macd-crossover1-combined-report-.txt
http://www.traderji.com/attachments...e-people-macd-crossover1-combined-report-.txt
Hi oxus,
40-45% success rate and yet profit per trade is good. But i hope this requires excellent money management since you 55-60% trades will be wrong!!!!
See the below simple mathematics:
1 * 1 = 1
1 * 2 = 2
1* 3 = 3
and now:
2* 1 = 2
2 * 2 = 4
and so on.
What i mean to say is that the profit you get from any trade is
success % * avg profit per trade.
now you have 40- 45 % success rate and good avg profit.
But world's best traders not only have good avg profit , money management,
but also incredible success rate.
Eg. Larry Williams made 1.1 million$ in a year with only $ 10,000.
Now this profit is not possible by your 45% success rate.
He has excellent success rate * excellent avg profit.= 1.1 million$ from $10,000 in a year.
When he could do so ( he also started from strach )
Why we could not???????
So in conclusion if your success rate is less than 50% , you will make avg profit ( not excellent ) and it is possible that you might miss the Big profitable trade ( it's probability is less than 50% ) because of whatever reasons and this could reduce your profitability.
So , we as trader should strive hard for excellent success rate + excellent avg profit.
Regards,
Winston
40-45% success rate and yet profit per trade is good. But i hope this requires excellent money management since you 55-60% trades will be wrong!!!!
See the below simple mathematics:
1 * 1 = 1
1 * 2 = 2
1* 3 = 3
and now:
2* 1 = 2
2 * 2 = 4
and so on.
What i mean to say is that the profit you get from any trade is
success % * avg profit per trade.
now you have 40- 45 % success rate and good avg profit.
But world's best traders not only have good avg profit , money management,
but also incredible success rate.
Eg. Larry Williams made 1.1 million$ in a year with only $ 10,000.
Now this profit is not possible by your 45% success rate.
He has excellent success rate * excellent avg profit.= 1.1 million$ from $10,000 in a year.
When he could do so ( he also started from strach )
Why we could not???????
So in conclusion if your success rate is less than 50% , you will make avg profit ( not excellent ) and it is possible that you might miss the Big profitable trade ( it's probability is less than 50% ) because of whatever reasons and this could reduce your profitability.
So , we as trader should strive hard for excellent success rate + excellent avg profit.
Regards,
Winston
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