Charts for the Day





Dear Esse,

BPCL is in long term uptrend. Looking at chart and the little i know about elliott waves, it seems '3'rd got completed and '4'th underway. Likelyhood of '4'th testing is done, but if its a complex correction, it will take time and will resist every rise at 605-610.

A prominent confluence zone is coming at 515-525. A support exist there, i will try to go long there with small stoploss.

On weekly charts, prominent support at 480 only. Buts thats the worst if stock correct there.

Now, your question is giving timeframe of 3-4 weeks, it means if '2'nd is taking two months, then '4'th may take atleast 1 month time to consolidate here. Rest you can trail your stoploss with position.

Just keep in touch will update here regularly.
 
Anil ji

I have read your thread religiously and its quite educative.

If you are not too busy please answer my query when time.

My style of trading is buying during a fall at support levels, buy more if the support is breached. I buy only large and large mid cap so that a certain level of safety is there and I have 6 to 1 year kind of timeframe. Does this strategy makes any sense for a semi active trader cum investor makes any sense or is it catching a falling knife.

Also with this strategy I generally miss the stock when they are on fire for example in the current bull run I failed to add on to my portfolio because it was a one way ride. I am yet to zero in a strategy for the rising markets.

Thanks
 
Dear sabharwal ji,

When you buy at support levels makesure trend is UP, else it will be same as catching falling knife. And as a trader trading on stocks on delivery basis, it will hurt badly.
First make sure trend in UP, Then trade on pullbacks or on strength as reading from charts.
For ex. lets define a mkt as UP when its above 50 SMA, then my observation is strong stocks in uptrend corrects till 21 EMA only, and turn UP again. So this is quality of fast moving stocks.
On other hand, some slow moving stocks correct till 50 SMA and then bounce up, this goes on, till trend matures inn the eye of prefessional.

How trend matures, generally i have seen, there are period of consolidations on daily charts. These consolidation come at 50 SMA or like. So i always avoid fourth consolidation in uptrend. And i follow strict rules on third too.
why..???
As i have seen this goes well with thinking with eliiott wave too. Remember, first consolidation is '2'nd wave then second consolidation is '4'th wave. Afterwards if its an extended third wave you may see one more, but not fourth one. It should alert you, this is going too much. So if prices then pullback towards 50 SMA or like, then alert trend may be maturing, you can have that added clue from divergences on oscillators.

Now, for current run, yes i agree stocks riding in one side without much pullback. But thats the way mkt goes. It implies there are impatient buyers going in for every 5-10% fall in stocks. During such times, just trail your position with 21 EMA, or sit out if you miss. But dont try to jump.

Infact we in this thread, are continuously looking for longs since market was at sub 6000 levels.

Never, ever compromise with your rules...Market will be there forever, no single move should influence you.
 


Hi,

On request of fellow member, posting REC analysis.
REC is in long term uptrend, and stock looking good on weekly too. It seems power reforms on corner.

Momentum wise:
Monthly- UP
Weekly - Sideways
Daily - Sideways but down if closes below 336

What to do now..??

- By looking at RS weakness and volumes, it seems stock can correct till 310-315 if its a strong uptrend, else it can dragged till 300 levels. So ideal position to go long is to see behaviour near 310-315 then go long, or near to 300 if it comes.

What if stock didnt correct till..310-315..??
-Then price action will show strength if we closes below 355 level. Then it can go till 390 minimum first.

So we have plan for both, if prices move upwards from here nowon, or if it corrects till 310 levels.

Tgts can be 390 first, then we will trail it.
 





Hi,

Posting another one Dish TV.
Stock in downtrend, and vying to close above 57-58 is positive for stock in intermediate term with TGts of 72 first.

A monthly close this month above 58.5 will give intermediate up signal with Sl on closing basis below 47 levels.

If trying to go long in this, then try to closer to 51.25 with small stoploss or closer to 47.5 with SL below it on closing basis.

Till 57-58 not taken out decisively stock will remain range bound, with contraction in ranges.
 

amitrandive

Well-Known Member