Charts for the Day

[amitrandive]

Dear nitinji,

Regular readers know here, i hate Reliance camp, stock charts every time deceive or may its management thats is not worth for...Leaving my sentiments here... Reliance Infra is in downtrend on weekly charts...

AnilJi

Feelings are mutual for all those who have been studying the charts of any of that group.

Under-performers of the decade.

Still people want to try and catch bottoms for those stocks.

Better spend time and energy elsewhere.More than 1600+ stocks in NSE and still people are obsessed with this group.

People trying to expect RIL break the barrier of 1200 for the "nth " time are disappointed and mind you market conditions are not the reason for this fall in RIL.

With crude breaking down most OMC's and crude oil raw material based companies gaining except Big Bro RIL.

Anyone who wants to invest in this group,please look at the monthly charts.You will know what AnilJi and I are talking.

 

[Sunnyraj]

Anil sir, you have pointed about accumulation in previous post. How do we identify that accumulation is going on ? Has it something to do with sideways move after a rally , or are volumes to be watched ?

Kindly explain

 

[nitingosavi]

Anil sir, you have pointed about accumulation in previous post. How do we identify that accumulation is going on ? Has it something to do with sideways move after a rally , or are volumes to be watched ?

Kindly explain

Anil sir, same question.. how we can identify accumulation or distribution on price chart. are there any rules?

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Anil sir, you have pointed about accumulation in previous post. How do we identify that accumulation is going on ? Has it something to do with sideways move after a rally , or are volumes to be watched ?

Kindly explain

Dear Sunny,

First have you taken effort in reading how previous bottoms made....No...Thats why i always say read price chart closely in initial years...practice as many charts as you can...and with that analysis you will take lesser time in analysing a chart, as you know what to look for in reading the chart.

Its not trendlines and drawing support/Resistance levels is the only thing. Analyse nature of price action going on, whether participants wants to take price higher or lower, all will reflect on chart. Every bar as i had said in original thread, 'Have story'...and always remember volume action accompanying it will always judge whether institutions hands is involved in it or not.

Many think 50 SMA and 200 SMA are bullshit. But my experience with chart says, 50 SMA is a fairly good indicator if you know how to read it, and believe me institutions will act at that level for sure...but if are reading it like layman, ' Buy when price crosses 50 SMA and sell when it crosses down' then its a recipe for disaster...watch from where price coming towards 50 SMA...

In good bull markets, in first leg price always retrace towards 50 SMA, for almost 3-4 times...always buy second or at the max 3rd touch...never try to caught 1st and 4th as it deceive and they are character point towards changing in trend may be.

For you query, my answer is on chart hope i am clear...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Wisdom from Paul Tudor Jones (PTJ)...

 

[amitrandive]

Dear Sunny,

First have you taken effort in reading how previous bottoms made....No...Thats why i always say read price chart closely in initial years...practice as many charts as you can...and with that analysis you will take lesser time in analysing a chart, as you know what to look for in reading the chart.

Its not trendlines and drawing support/Resistance levels is the only thing. Analyse nature of price action going on, whether participants wants to take price higher or lower, all will reflect on chart. Every bar as i had said in original thread, 'Have story'...and always remember volume action accompanying it will always judge whether institutions hands is involved in it or not.

Many think 50 SMA and 200 SMA are bullshit. But my experience with chart says, 50 SMA is a fairly good indicator if you know how to read it, and believe me institutions will act at that level for sure...but if are reading it like layman, ' Buy when price crosses 50 SMA and sell when it crosses down' then its a recipe for disaster...watch from where price coming towards 50 SMA...

In good bull markets, in first leg price always retrace towards 50 SMA, for almost 3-4 times...always buy second or at the max 3rd touch...never try to caught 1st and 4th as it deceive and they are character point towards changing in trend may be.

For you query, my answer is on chart hope i am clear...

Monthly Chart of Relinfra

Those who have seen 2000+ levels should not expect a miracle that it may bounce again from the lowest levels to those high levels again.

Many investors/traders do this mistake of setting the upper targets in buy and hold investing.

A good business is always a good buy at the lower levels/valuations.But an informed investor must always analyse what went wrong for the drastic price reduction.

Always good to buy strong stocks on dips ,but not wise to catch falling knives and especially non-performing businesses.

As a guide an investor can take help of fundamentals to understand what is wrong with the business.It is almost impossible to keep up manipulating the balance sheets for a long time.

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Monthly Chart of Relinfra

Those who have seen 2000+ levels should not expect a miracle that it may bounce again from the lowest levels to those high levels again.

Many investors/traders do this mistake of setting the upper targets in buy and hold investing.

A good business is always a good buy at the lower levels/valuations.But an informed investor must always analyse what went wrong for the drastic price reduction.

Always good to buy strong stocks on dips ,but not wise to catch falling knives and especially non-performing businesses.

As a guide an investor can take help of fundamentals to understand what is wrong with the business.It is almost impossible to keep up manipulating the balance sheets for a long time.

This is the true picture of company when it goes from honeymoon days to divorce...A sad story for those holding at highs...i myself told one guy to buy Rcom @ 700 something to one guy in 2008, and the same guy failed to take SL hit...he is still into it...Till this date it hurts me...it itched in my memory, only solace is quantity he got is 20 only...from that day onwards, i choose my words carefully advising on shares...learned a lesson...

 

[pegasus70]

This is the true picture of company when it goes from honeymoon days to divorce...A sad story for those holding at highs...i myself told one guy to buy Rcom @ 700 something to one guy in 2008, and the same guy failed to take SL hit...he is still into it...Till this date it hurts me...it itched in my memory, only solace is quantity he got is 20 only...from that day onwards, i choose my words carefully advising on shares...learned a lesson...

Today's ADAG is tomorrows Jaiprakash (Associates) ..Trust me ..their employees is their biggest non performing assets. These firms are run only to endow those employees who don''t care two hoots about the customers. Think RCOM, Reliance Capital .they all have been known to have the bitterest of spats with own customers. Even a miracle can't be enough miraculous to save these sinking ships ..Just alight if you are aboard ....before it's too late of course.

 

[Sunnyraj]

Dear Sunny,

First have you taken effort in reading how previous bottoms made....No...Thats why i always say read price chart closely in initial years...practice as many charts as you can...and with that analysis you will take lesser time in analysing a chart, as you know what to look for in reading the chart.

Its not trendlines and drawing support/Resistance levels is the only thing. Analyse nature of price action going on, whether participants wants to take price higher or lower, all will reflect on chart. Every bar as i had said in original thread, 'Have story'...and always remember volume action accompanying it will always judge whether institutions hands is involved in it or not.

Many think 50 SMA and 200 SMA are bullshit. But my experience with chart says, 50 SMA is a fairly good indicator if you know how to read it, and believe me institutions will act at that level for sure...but if are reading it like layman, ' Buy when price crosses 50 SMA and sell when it crosses down' then its a recipe for disaster...watch from where price coming towards 50 SMA...

In good bull markets, in first leg price always retrace towards 50 SMA, for almost 3-4 times...always buy second or at the max 3rd touch...never try to caught 1st and 4th as it deceive and they are character point towards changing in trend may be.

For you query, my answer is on chart hope i am clear...

Yes Anil sir, you are right. Although i start analysis with monthly/weekly, but i need to watch closely every time how price behaves when it touches that zone.Just marking support/resistance zones is not enough.

Regarding accumulation what i understood from daily charts is volumes are to be watched.

Plz tell if i understood it correctly: Bullishness is when price rises with good volumes and bearishness when price falls with big volumes.

Here, near that support zone, sell off has low volumes , while bullish bars have good volumes.

And all this is happening at crucial support zone which was tested several times on weekly chart.

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Yes Anil sir, you are right. Although i start analysis with monthly/weekly, but i need to watch closely every time how price behaves when it touches that zone.Just marking support/resistance zones is not enough.

Regarding accumulation what i understood from daily charts is volumes are to be watched.

Plz tell if i understood it correctly: Bullishness is when price rises with good volumes and bearishness when price falls with big volumes.

Here, near that support zone, sell off has low volumes , while bullish bars have good volumes.

And all this is happening at crucial support zone which was tested several times on weekly chart.

Dear Sunny,

Yes volumes are important to move the stocks up/down. Yes you are right there are many nuances to look into. How price trading, is it trading in tightly mean with lower range bars and closing coming in tightly at same level, implied Accumulation/distribution going on.

Also is there enough result for effort taking place, if volume coming in and price refuses to budge then be prepared for opposite move which can be quite sharp.

There are many things, it needs a quite detailed article to cover whole lot of things. Or we need a checklist to mark it. That will be easy.

For now, analyse many charts how bottoming or topping process goes on. Remember all these are going on in base formation. They can be any H&S, WEdge, Triangles, Flags, Rectangles etc...so your study is to analyse how/which pattern taking place.