Charts for the Day

[anil_s_trivedi]

Anilji,

What's your view on ApolloHospital?
In Weekly chart it's near resistance zone. When do you tell it's BO (if any), above 1497.7 (Previous high) with high vol or above 1516 (on 7/10/2015).

What would be the SL? I think as per pivot method it's below 1330.

Regards,

Dear Paappy,

Apollo hospital is in uptrend, The recent pattern on daily is looking like a cup with handle one. entry point should be above 1497.7 as it is handle high point and yes volume should be above average on breakout bar.

If you want aggressive stoploss it should be at closing below 1416 low of latest bar, as it is high volume bar, price should trade below this on closing basis.

Conservative stoploss should be below 50 SMA, but preferably below 1355-65 zone.

 

[rangarajan]

Dear sunnyraj,









Regarding infosys, I am a trend follower so always looking for a stock with better relative strength. Here higher timeframe momentum means, for ex: infy had already given momentum indicator like MACD up on weekly, so daily swings should be look into buying. Not every MACD up is a buy, but here stock is moving up with breaking out of low volume consolidation and Relative strength is above recent highs of october when price was at highs.

anil Trivedi,

I am aware that you do not attach much importance to indicators in yr analysis, but with yrexpert knowledge, i would like to hear more from you as to how you interpret & trade MACD & what r the exceptions.

Also can u elaborate more on Relative strength & what one should look for here & what exactly you mean by this term? ( i presume it is not the RSI you r referring here).

Somewhere u had referred Reverse Bar. Are all RB tradeble or any exceptions

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

anil Trivedi,

I am aware that you do not attach much importance to indicators in yr analysis, but with yrexpert knowledge, i would like to hear more from you as to how you interpret & trade MACD & what r the exceptions.

Also can u elaborate more on Relative strength & what one should look for here & what exactly you mean by this term? ( i presume it is not the RSI you r referring here).

Somewhere u had referred Reverse Bar. Are all RB tradeble or any exceptions

Dear rangarajan,

Man i am no expert...Its only thing i am more inclined to price behaviour.
MACD is as we all know is a momentum indicator, good signals come in trending period & false in sideways.

1)Generally i take MACD readings confirmation with trendline break in price.
2) In bull markets range is MACD readings maintained above zero line(12EMA above 26EMA) and crossings below zero dont give much falls.
3) While shifting range to bull to bear, generally spike is seen MACD readings, indicating extreme reactions in price is nothing but reactionary spike
4) Strong trends dont abide MACD divergence signals, only confirmation from price will tell about correction id any.


In infosys case, Weekly MACD is maintaining bulls zone, so this crossing looking good. So any fall with price support at key level is good for longs.
Our analysis may be wrong, so it needs stoploss in place.


Relative strength here is nothing but ratio charts, mean stock/Index . How stock is performing w.r.t index. Rising relative strength indicates outperformance by stock, that can be maintained in uptrend as well downtrend.

IF stock is risng more than index it will have rising Relative strength, also if stock is falling lesser with index still it can have better relative strength.
Generally papers on relative strength says, A RS breakout is followed by price sooner, but not always...So a breakout in RS and price going sideways indicates stock performing better to index and loosing less, expect upside breakout sooner.

Secondly, trendline signals on RS also are good indicator alongwith trendline on price chart of stock for confirmation signals. One can also use MACD, RSI on Relative strength so that overbought/oversold readings can be gauged for.

For cnx500, i am building my own excel for Relative strength rankings. So that better stocks can be seen in top percentile and how they move, watching their behaviour. Its a project for me in coming months.

Reversal bars are good to trade in price extremes scenario. Such signals in sideways trend are not preferable. Generally they are more reliable when selloff with volume has been done and price testing the zone with lower volumes and then a follow up bar is generally a reversal bar.
All bar/candle signals are good in trending markets at extremes, in sideways it just a case for false signals.

 

[rangarajan]

Dear rangarajan,

Reversal bars are good to trade in price extremes scenario. Such signals in sideways trend are not preferable. Generally they are more reliable when selloff with volume has been done and price testing the zone with lower volumes and then a follow up bar is generally a reversal bar.
All bar/candle signals are good in trending markets at extremes, in sideways it just a case for false signals.

anil Trivedi,

Can u pl have a look at the 5min chart( 11.25-30 bar esp) of Justdial Today & discuss your observation wrt Reversalbar in isolation.

If i combine with MACd & Stochastic, it is weak, O/S & the Tgt should be below 536 & possible 521 as per Fib

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

anil Trivedi,

Can u pl have a look at the 5min chart( 11.25-30 bar esp) of Justdial Today & discuss your observation wrt Reversalbar in isolation.

If i combine with MACd & Stochastic, it is weak, O/S & the Tgt should be below 536 & possible 521 as per Fib

Dear rangarajan,

Trading on 5min with bars patterns is difficult for me. I generally trade on lower timeframes with levels from higher timeframes. Bars are secondary for me on 5min.

Yeah its a reversal bar, but wick is too long below body. A critic of mine says, closing above 50% of previous bar is good signal for going long.

Looking at price it seems climax is done here, a retest of low is possible, likely bounce seems to be in the region 505-520 zone...REtest requires on lower volumes and bounce from there will tell a about bottoming done or not.

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

L&T (CMP:1132.5) looking good for the moment, although in steep downtrend. For short term good trade looking at price action.

A steady upmove above 1150-55 levels, see support at 1095-1100 zone...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Stop system hopping and master a given system.

This is friendly advice to all the person/s who are searching new system without mastering any system lets see what is system hopping ??

“System hopping” is essentially going from one system to another in an attempt to find a profitable strategy for trading.
While the idea of looking around for various trading strategies makes sense, the reality is that very few traders will give a trading methodology the appropriate amount of time to prove itself worthy or not, and will simply move onto other systems in the never ending search for profit.

Take example the MM of a system requires 1 to 1.5 Lakh for one lot of nifty aim for 5 to 10 % per month ,another also having same capital rules then what is the meaning of jumping to another one if the first one is working.

Trading systems are not like cakes With a cake, you can take a bite and you’ll know if it tastes good or not, but a system must be traded for a reasonable time before you know if it’s profitable or not, you can’t just take one trade and decide on its overall profitability. Furthermore, if you trade a system for a long period, chances are you’ll get better at it and your trading accuracy will increase. Changing systems everyday makes you shallow as a trader and you’ll end up going through 50 systems without mastering any. Settle on one, learn it well and stop hopping.

Rightly said...:clapping::clapping::clapping:

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

If i analyzed my trades ended in loss, many of them are due to 'Taking early positions on gut Feel' disregarding system laid rules or rather trying to prejudge system rules.

There is a chain to lead this way...

First when i analyzed chart, it goes as per my expectations then i see my rules, yes its going as per my plain chart reading analysis. This factor imbibes overconfidence in me.
So i try to preempt my trading signal with my overconfident analysis, and this is where it kills my trade...

Why we just cant follow rules laid by us...Really this needs to improve...this is just not good in long term...

 

[rangarajan]

L&T (CMP:1132.5) looking good for the moment, although in steep downtrend. For short term good trade looking at price action.

A steady upmove above 1150-55 levels, see support at 1095-1100 zone...

anil Trivedi,

I am of the opinion that every pull back is an opportunity for short because it is O/Sold in weekly, likely to breach 1070 in the coming days to c 1008/928 depending on how far it pulls back( 1125-1253( s/l).

Here i will take guidance of R/Bar for short from yr post as well as ADX & MACD.
Right now ADX very strong for existing D/Trend in Wly & Dly charts

I also note T/L rest in Dly.

But, the stock should first come out of O/Sold zone in wly which means yr Price action Tgts.

But why the share has become weak from 1900 levels, a Reputed co losing more than 50%.

 

[anilnegi]

anil ji

can we trade this rangebound stock now or is it going toward downside.

thanks

anil negi