Charts for the Day

[mindgames]

TCS breached key support zone, now safe only above it...else avoid...

Long term holders?

 

[mindgames]

Dear Anil,

I have a question on execution of entries. Once you have decided to enter, what do you use as a trigger for getting in?

1/ Do you enter only after seeing daily close?

2/ Do you enter seeing 'probable' close - eg. around 3.20, if it looks like stock will close above your level...

3/ Do you wait for shorter TF (eg. hourly with daily charts) to close above resistance?

If you can explain with some charts, will be very helpful. Please do so only if you are comfortable

 

[mindgames]

Dear Anil,

I have a question on execution of entries. Once you have decided to enter, what do you use as a trigger for getting in?

1/ Do you enter only after seeing daily close?

2/ Do you enter seeing 'probable' close - eg. around 3.20, if it looks like stock will close above your level...

3/ Do you wait for shorter TF (eg. hourly with daily charts) to close above resistance?

If you can explain with some charts, will be very helpful. Please do so only if you are comfortable

Why I'm asking is to avoid catching a falling knife on pullbacks / breakout retracements.

Or, when a stock has arrested its fall at a support level during a range based movement - how do we ascertain that it has started it's move to other end of the range (i.e. relatively safe to enter - what is the trigger/confirmation).

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Long term holders?

Dear mindgames,

TCS attained all time high in October-2014, after that is broken its long term support trendline, also got retested but failed again...since then price going sideways in a bigger channel...At first sight it seems to be a Flag undergoing...

The horizontal support zone is coming in at 2440-60 zone... if prices more time below this, its a sign price acceptance is there in this region...so price more prone to test lower support levels...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Dear Anil,

I have a question on execution of entries. Once you have decided to enter, what do you use as a trigger for getting in?

1/ Do you enter only after seeing daily close?

2/ Do you enter seeing 'probable' close - eg. around 3.20, if it looks like stock will close above your level...

3/ Do you wait for shorter TF (eg. hourly with daily charts) to close above resistance?

If you can explain with some charts, will be very helpful. Please do so only if you are comfortable

Dear mindgames,

I dont wait till the EOD or for 3:20 price level...If i am going for a breakout trade, then probable entry point is right at above resistance zone with tight stoploss below it (if aggressive trade- then pivot low on lower timeframe, since i trade on daily, i prefer pivot swing low of hourly/15min)...
If its a conservative trade, then daily pivot swing low is the SL...So that price can have its space to move up/down...

Its my observation, if i got buy on some specific setups, then if price unable to breach its highs(in case of long) then its gives early hint of probable its a trap...high of setup bar need to be breached to confirmed its a good trade...else be prepared for opposite move...And we know, the movement from failed breakout pattern is more fierce in opposite direction...

Also, volume confirmation is necessary, if its not above average , atleast it should be higher than previous bar or better previous 5-bar highest volumes...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Why I'm asking is to avoid catching a falling knife on pullbacks / breakout retracements.

Or, when a stock has arrested its fall at a support level during a range based movement - how do we ascertain that it has started it's move to other end of the range (i.e. relatively safe to enter - what is the trigger/confirmation).

Dear mindgames,

Its really a good question...and it tells you had feel this when you enter a trade...no one really asked this till now here in this thread...

If one is trading in a range, and price is landing close to support...it will have few of action...the range of bars is generally narrow before price tested the support...implies price is coming out of narrow range, and in range expansion it tested the desired support zone...so volume should be more if its a move 'down' coming in , but if its a support then probably it would have lower volumes...

Again, its a risk to enter in anticipation of support coming in, so for conservative wait till hourly bar takes high of previous 2-bars...what the old traders used to called it as 2-bar swing highs-lows...it tells strength coming in...Old traders who trades only with price use it more prominently than any other methods...

For conservatives, wait till EOD and initiate action only if high of these support bar is taken out...

 

[mindgames]

Dear mindgames,

I dont wait till the EOD or for 3:20 price level...If i am going for a breakout trade, then probable entry point is right at above resistance zone with tight stoploss below it (if aggressive trade- then pivot low on lower timeframe, since i trade on daily, i prefer pivot swing low of hourly/15min)...
If its a conservative trade, then daily pivot swing low is the SL...So that price can have its space to move up/down...

Its my observation, if i got buy on some specific setups, then if price unable to breach its highs(in case of long) then its gives early hint of probable its a trap...high of setup bar need to be breached to confirmed its a good trade...else be prepared for opposite move...And we know, the movement from failed breakout pattern is more fierce in opposite direction...

Also, volume confirmation is necessary, if its not above average , atleast it should be higher than previous bar or better previous 5-bar highest volumes...

Thank you Anil.

Does that mean you have to scratch a lot of trades at low loss? For instance, there are lot of trades where it looks like a good break-out on breakout day but after about a week, price falls back into previous trading range trading range. Very few breakouts seem to move fast (without pullback or neat pullbacks without tails extending below previous pivot low).

That brings another question to my mind - i think you use stops on closing basis (sorry, i made this assumption based on reading of your thread). Do you wait until bar closes or do you exit on breach and then re-enter if price closes above the SL? - Because it is psychologically tough as you don't know if after 1 test, price will again test and push lower the next day. Also, if you wait for close, there is a possibility that price just drifts lower through the day and you have to close at much lower than SL - this issue mainly arises when price has opened well and during the day due to news, tests support and hangs around that area for sometime to slowly push lower.

In your opinion, how long (say, no. of bars so that TF is not a constraint) does it take to form and idea on whether price has accepted overcoming of previous resistance / support?

Thanks in advance for your clarifications

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Thank you Anil.

Does that mean you have to scratch a lot of trades at low loss? For instance, there are lot of trades where it looks like a good break-out on breakout day but after about a week, price falls back into previous trading range trading range. Very few breakouts seem to move fast (without pullback or neat pullbacks without tails extending below previous pivot low).

That brings another question to my mind - i think you use stops on closing basis (sorry, i made this assumption based on reading of your thread). Do you wait until bar closes or do you exit on breach and then re-enter if price closes above the SL? - Because it is psychologically tough as you don't know if after 1 test, price will again test and push lower the next day. Also, if you wait for close, there is a possibility that price just drifts lower through the day and you have to close at much lower than SL - this issue mainly arises when price has opened well and during the day due to news, tests support and hangs around that area for sometime to slowly push lower.

In your opinion, how long (say, no. of bars so that TF is not a constraint) does it take to form and idea on whether price has accepted overcoming of previous resistance / support?

Thanks in advance for your clarifications

Dear mindgames,

Yes thats the price you need to pay for playing breakouts...its better to take small stoploss...thats why majority of my trades are on breakout & retest kind...

Price after breakout will have clean run, good up bars with volumes...also for every effort(volume coming in) , result(price moving up) should be better...thats the footprint price leaves...when one stop seeing result of grest efforts, you should be cautious...

Regarding placing stoploss, i place on price testing my SL levels...many times price test it, spends hour and also got closing below it, i feel great of my SL positioning...but towards EOD price climb back above SL level...so i again initiate my position...thats the rule i defined for myself...I cant miss trend for that whipsaw...

But, my trades are mostly clear...if it hits stoploss then generally price moves lower...you can say the positioning of stoploss is better...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Thank you Anil.

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In your opinion, how long (say, no. of bars so that TF is not a constraint) does it take to form and idea on whether price has accepted overcoming of previous resistance / support?

Thanks in advance for your clarifications

These is no short cut to tell price has accepted the new region after overcoming support/Resistance ....but there are few things you need to observed as a chart analysts...whether this weakness/strength is getting transformed into higher timeframes or not...for example...whether this weakness resulting in price closing below previous week lows, previous month lows...then treat it as price showing acceptance to trade below support zone...as higher timeframe players allowing this weakness till that point...here too you can mix that idea of swing hgihs/lows...whether price breaking 2-week/2-month swing high/lows....And treat is as weakness....its a sheer case of more weakness coming in, as the weakness of daily timeframe is now getting spread on weekly/monthly...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

TVS motors cleared earlier ATH in april but didnt sustained and fall back into the range...Stock just hovering near Trendline support...Expect weakness below this...

TVs motors, still going weak in relative strength way...keep tracking...Bulls need to do a lot of work here, else stock slowly gripping under bears territory...

Stock trading inside big selloff bar of 3rd may-2016 since past two months...