Charts for the Day

[anil_s_trivedi]

NIFTY....... an observation
Looking at daily chart with Bollinger Bands, it is observed that Nifty has on several occasions in the past, smartly recovered from below the lower band, to move on to middle band, surpass it, and march on further towards upper band.
Would Nifty repeat the feat this time too ?
Middle band currently at 10833, upper band at 11604 !

Do you agree ?

This time bollinger bandwidth is too high... as the volatility expansion was on downside, a huge buying momentum needs to test upper BB.

As per your charts in earlier instances bb bandwidth is narrower...

So here volatility contraction led to expansion, while now there is volatility expansion going on so there is a need for contraction. So at all if its a strength move a sideways to up can be expected...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Strength above 35000 holding can chase to 200 sma @ 35400

Weak below 34700-730

Nifty levels strength above 10540
Weak below 10475

A intermediate term positive only above 10800...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Nifty levels strength above 10540
Weak below 10475

A intermediate term positive only above 10800...

10540 remains level of fight in short term....

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

The way markets got sold of on todays gap up, cements the logic that in downtrends smart players use gap up to sell while in uptrend they use gap down to buy....

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Raviji,

Stocks in business of broking/investment banking are a precursor to the whole market..since their revenues are tied up with market performance...In bull market their revenues get boost while they slumber in bear markets...If these broking stocks feeling heat in near term it means the much needed rest for the market is coming next...a lack of interest in broking stocks is a sign of caution...

The date of analysis is shown as down arrow in blue on charts...As i repeatedly pointed out there is rotation going on always in the market...and financial svcs stocks especially broking stocks are precursor to the top coming in...

Referring to charts many stocks just didnt test the jan highs of 2018 and falling repeatedly since then...The earlier fall in nifty in jan is precursor to the things setting up...after the fall the broking stocks continuous diverging from main index while the baton is given to other sector...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Nifty:

Short term trend down, intermediate trend down...
The immediate support levels coming in at 10530-550 zone only...where 50 SMA daily is also waiting...I am -ve till 10890-10910 levels are resisted on upside...

Selling since past 4 trading bars is above average and price too corrected significant from top...

For major bearish to come nifty need to break those support of 50 SMA of daily and 10550 zone...Then it will raise the bar to drop till 10000 even 9730-50 levels can be seen...

But we will take a step at a time...As in earlier posts in december months we had already said nifty going up on midcap/smallcap space and these names are overextended ones...also some broking stocks are complacent to make new highs...This all pointed to some cooling in near future...

What should be strategy now...??

Go with strong money management rules...As seen from stocks charts i am going through, a bounce back is imminent and it seems the amount of volume shedding done(more volumes come only from institutions) the rally now on will be utilised to 'Sell'...or lighten your positions...

On upside nifty levels expected for a bounce case are 11250/11350 levels...A failure there will reinforce the argument of sell on rally going on...This run up is big one now cooling will also needed on weekly charts, so the levels we see in february might be ( may be) will act as resistance throughout the year...

Again here on 3rd feb we analysed the things setting in...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

http://imgur.com/a/IjCcfNu

Short tern strength above 10140 level...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Metal pack struggling below 200 sma...With leading names below key moving averages its important to watch the pattern unfolding here...as more it stays below more the pain in coming days...

Importance of staying with leaders is clearly seen, watch jindal steel and jsw steel outperformed the metal pack...

Key stocks failed to make the strength up and failed badly in metal sector.... a simple analysis with 200 SMA and S/R levels...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Titan A big H&S breaking down gone sideways with heavy volumes coming in..more it stay below 200 SMA a lower targets coming in...
It is trading below key averages of 50 SMA and 200 SMA...

On weekly chart one can see the closing is almost at same levels since it breached the neckline of H&S also heavy volumes in at these sideways times, indicating huge institutional activity going on. So if price stays below 50/200 a weakness coming in...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Nifty still in long term downtrend as long as it is below 200 SMA on daily charts. What it is attempting is can be best said to be a pullback rally towards 200 SMA of 10765 levels...why..?? Many stocks from Nifty-50 camp are still not showing that good signs of bottoming.

Nifty hourly is in uptrend and as long as holding 10285 levels it is safe for bulls...But the errant nature of markets dealing in gap-up and gap downs it is not safe to carry intraday positions. Trade with levels only...

As long as market is staying below 200 sma it would be skeptical to be a perma bull.

Many are confused to take positions in stocks or not..??

There are approaches to be followed in market in different conditions. The strategy and risk management you had followed when nifty in uptrend didnt work in bear markets when nifty is below 200 sma... As rallies are quick ones and you need to be book profits immediately...Catching falling knives at monthly/weekly support zones is good strategy for some but you cant invest your full capital allocation on the same strategy...

I belong to camp which wait for proper base formation to be take place in stocks before venturing in. I know it requires days or rather weeks of patience to observe market sitting idle. But thats what i learned and better suited for me, and it helped me in 2008 fall also...It may require missing 15-20% of moves from bottom lows but it assures me what should be my stoploss in such scenarios...

I am not against catching falling knives totally. But you should not bet your whole allocation towards that strategy. No one knows whether market made bottom or not...I too trade 1-2 positions but followed it strictly...with tight SL and quick profit booking at targets spotted by moving averages or price action...