Charts for the Day

[anil_s_trivedi]

Nifty previous week moved up on narrow range bars with small up closings indicating lack of upside momentum coming in, on friday it the volatility expansion took place and support gone for toss. Closing well below tuesdays lows indicating extreme short term weakness coming in.

With todays bar nifty is below support of 11790-11810 levels. And in meantime also trading below 11625 the previous months lows indicating weakness coming in higher timeframes. The more it sustains below 11625 more uncomfortable for bulls.

For any reasonable strength it can be seen only above 11790-11810 levels...

Lower levels can be seen till 11200 in case of bearishness continuing...

Nifty moving sharply down with breaching of 200 ema today at 11300...Problem is many got eyes only on mainline indices but carnage is going on in smallcaps and midcaps...overall beating is too harsh...leaving 10-15 large caps stocks rest stocks going through hell...

Go slow on longs dont be hurry, wait for your setups...and dont try to catch bottoms in stocks...buy only in strength...

For nifty first sign of strength would be recapturing 200 ema and move above 11390 is equally positive...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Nifty moving sharply down with breaching of 200 ema today at 11300...Problem is many got eyes only on mainline indices but carnage is going on in smallcaps and midcaps...overall beating is too harsh...leaving 10-15 large caps stocks rest stocks going through hell...

Go slow on longs dont be hurry, wait for your setups...and dont try to catch bottoms in stocks...buy only in strength...

For nifty first sign of strength would be recapturing 200 ema and move above 11390 is equally positive...

Nifty made low of 11210 on friday last week marking lower closing on weekly basis with increase in volume, which is not a good sign. Our modest levels was to test 11200 and its almost done...Now sideways move likely...With monthly closing due this week all action would be in the zone of to avoid closing near monthly lows of 11210 as of now...as more it closes near its lows for current month more is the difficult task for bulls to chase higher...A higher timeframe weakness is not at all good for bulls.

Again for stocks be selective go on for stocks in strength, watch out for stocks closer to 52 weeks high and loosing its ground in this fall...For bottom catchers its a difficult market you never know when your luck runs out of its course...so be in strength with tight risk management in place...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Coffee day moved below 200 SMA was a subtle warning for investors eyeing for bottom catching...Stock below 200 sma means no business for investors out there...

Very disturbing news of CCD owner Siddhartha came in morning, possibly man may have end his life...Still clarification from police authorities are awaiting. But reading his letter seen on social media, he cited reason as unable to generate profit and hiding some financial transactions.

Seriourly, if unable to generate profit is the criteria to end life then what to think of cash burning businesses like OYO to think of...Government need to come clean with laws on this cash burning business models, as it is hampering the interests of small businesses running ethically. Dubious models and transactions is the blood of these businesses. I had quoted example of OYO there are many just burning VC/PE money to garner share and destroying small scale and middle scale businesses...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Nifty closed at monthly lows and also closed below previous two months lows. Price action wise not a good structure as of now on monthly...Volume on monthly bar is too high as of now... I am not seeing any bar of that volume on my monthly charts since 2000...Plz cross check it...

On daily we closed below 200 SMA @ 11140 levels

We had lost faith in this leg of rally till 12100 odd levels as it was not a broad based rally and running on few engines, as soon those got out of fuel nifty became normal to test its lower zones...

Again watch out for stocks having better comparative relative strength vs Nifty...Keep tracking those stocks they are the one who will guide us for next leg of upside...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Nifty closed at monthly lows and also closed below previous two months lows. Price action wise not a good structure as of now on monthly...Volume on monthly bar is too high as of now... I am not seeing any bar of that volume on my monthly charts since 2000...Plz cross check it...

On daily we closed below 200 SMA @ 11140 levels

We had lost faith in this leg of rally till 12100 odd levels as it was not a broad based rally and running on few engines, as soon those got out of fuel nifty became normal to test its lower zones...

Again watch out for stocks having better comparative relative strength vs Nifty...Keep tracking those stocks they are the one who will guide us for next leg of upside...

Trying hard way to close above 11108 monthly low of May...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Looking at weekly chart it infers intermediate trend is down making lower highs and lower lows...a stiff resistance in place at 210-220...a strength above this zone only...

On lower side chances of testing towards 165-170 which is a good support zone for long term players to chip in...with SL around 150...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

TechMahindra a IT space looking ripe for topping process...be cautious a hefty -ve divergence getting in on weekly charts...

Yeah on daily its still in uptrend. I am cautioning investors who are trying to enter now seeing IT sector outperforming others...Also on daily too much volumes coming in and price is not making that much significant upmove, thats why it is raising doubt...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Nifty rally is driven by large caps and in initial legs midcaps & smallcaps also provided the needed steam...Still one needs to guard positions on long side...Its not a market to short but also if longs be selective since rally is not broad one...

Only concern is if there are more shorters it may witness a parabolic rise...Very difficult to trade stocks in this market...rotation is so fast among sectors that difficult to catch the fish out there...

I am cautious on this leg of rally, and trading in selective stocks only that too with tight stoploss...not getting carries away..required broader participation to have go for full bull run...

Nifty previous week moved up on narrow range bars with small up closings indicating lack of upside momentum coming in, on friday it the volatility expansion took place and support gone for toss. Closing well below tuesdays lows indicating extreme short term weakness coming in.

With todays bar nifty is below support of 11790-11810 levels. And in meantime also trading below 11625 the previous months lows indicating weakness coming in higher timeframes. The more it sustains below 11625 more uncomfortable for bulls.

For any reasonable strength it can be seen only above 11790-11810 levels...

Lower levels can be seen till 11200 in case of bearishness continuing...

Nifty moving sharply down with breaching of 200 ema today at 11300...Problem is many got eyes only on mainline indices but carnage is going on in smallcaps and midcaps...overall beating is too harsh...leaving 10-15 large caps stocks rest stocks going through hell...

Go slow on longs dont be hurry, wait for your setups...and dont try to catch bottoms in stocks...buy only in strength...

For nifty first sign of strength would be recapturing 200 ema and move above 11390 is equally positive...

Nifty made low of 11210 on friday last week marking lower closing on weekly basis with increase in volume, which is not a good sign. Our modest levels was to test 11200 and its almost done...Now sideways move likely...With monthly closing due this week all action would be in the zone of to avoid closing near monthly lows of 11210 as of now...as more it closes near its lows for current month more is the difficult task for bulls to chase higher...A higher timeframe weakness is not at all good for bulls.

Again for stocks be selective go on for stocks in strength, watch out for stocks closer to 52 weeks high and loosing its ground in this fall...For bottom catchers its a difficult market you never know when your luck runs out of its course...so be in strength with tight risk management in place...

Nifty views from late march to june top...warning signs of rally led by fewer stocks...Infact there is a report from edelweiss saying baring top 10 stocks rest of index is at 9000 levels or so...
This is carnage if you are holding those rest...

Here is the link...

https://www.financialexpress.com/ma...40-way-and-that-will-be-really-scary/1663946/

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Nifty analysis done on charts...Levels wise a better bar with gain of 1-2% plus will indicate bulls leading all the way...Rallies seen in many midcap and smallcap stocks from lows but still not seeing any good bases forming in large cap names...

Nifty may witnessed a sideways for few weeks before showing its true colours... capturing 200 MA on daily would give bulls impetus for upside...

Go for stocks having hold with strength in this index correction or having little correction...We witnessed close to 11% correction in Nifty, so stocks having 15-25% correction would do fine..but not more than that to bet on stocks for upside..

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

July month closing was pretty bad one, a big down red bar closing below previous 4 months closings...Also it was above average volume for red down bar...

We are now into august month closing, and as we know as higher timeframe closing approaches market internals behave in a quite errant way...

July months closing was at 11118 which is more important for current week, it will decide whether we are closing +ve or -ve on month on month basis...

So current month opening of 11060 and previous month low of 10999 alongwith closing of prev month of 11118 is now rule till month closing...

More we sustain below previous low of 10999 more market accepting lower levels...as it also denotes closing was a weak here...