hi Friends,
While pondering over the year gone by from Diwali to Diwali, a host of events happened ranging from political to economy related. Some are mixed signals to market some are like shot in the arm. We in this thread always search for the next thing and ride it with the Mr. Market. In the process we have some tumblings too, afterall we dont have 'HolyGrail' as proclaimed by TV analysts and some of online marketeers (perhaps well known).
So what is this fuss all about. Its nothing but reading in between, which i always enjoyed. Since the journey from diwali to diwali, many sectors, many scrips got rewarded and many got punished. If i just looked down to this thread many of our findings are like star in the sky, we realised only when it materialize.
My approach to market is already discussed in the thread, and i dont have any hidden indicators. No fool proof study, but yes over the years i will agree i had devised some objective analysis in my readings. Thanks to shutting the idiot box.
Anyways, lets once again use simple methodology which many missed(perhaps almost 95%) in the market, to have a clue about whats going on.
First lets see this chart, a previous november to this november review of performance of sectors.
Now interesting thing is, splendid outperformance by FMCG, followed by HC, IT, TECK, AUTO.
Notably IT and TEck just seen as laggards till june, but thanks to Dollar, almost a vertical rise is seen both.(See chart below). So thats the pure luck play or still you can make it, is upto you to answer.
Now, in same year review...The underperformance was dominated by oil&gas, Metal, power and realty. So this culprits prevented a bull run...hmmmm...
Dont make noise still. Now focus on Metal turning point almost august start, whereas Nifty did started to rise end august.So yes there was a leading indicator turning up, and clues of whats coming in SENSEX.
Now lets focus on rally from august end, where Nifty made roughly 51xx. And we climbing higher and higher. So Now you will be amazed to see the chart and performance. Just hold your breath.
Oops, those struggling below Sensex are now leading in. Capital goods, Bankex, Auto still in fray. Metals and PSU stocks.
IT and Teck loosing flavour, but is it end of the game.
No. Whats in store nobody knows, whats is coming in , nobody knows, but yes we can have a simple tool called ROC to see, whats in favour. Nothing wrong in getting the feel.
Just scan regularly with a basket of stocks, and get the pulse by exploring on ROC over 1day/5day/1 week/ 1 month to see whats coming in whats going out.
Its a simple, but required your time and effort.
I always tried to develop investment manager mindset, and in the process learned few things, which i will share in the due course of time, if time permits.
Over the years, i come down to one point, you can have good objective analysis when you dont have position. But once you are into, your mind waver. so i am still learning to develop that objective thing in them mind. If you know something, please feel free to share.
Happy Diwali and have a wonderful time with Friends and Family.