Comfortable profits from trading Nifty.

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
Exits and Position Sizing.

Exits and position sizing fulfill a traders vision. There is no right or wrong vision. A trader could earn 20% a month or struggle to beat the index. Either way it is his vision he is fulfilling.

A conservative trader will go about a defensive way in setting his exits. Every trading method is prone to Drawdowns. Spending countless hours fine tuning the trading method will not prove much fruitful. Instead he could set his exits to fulfill his conservative vision. One such way is as follows:

Entire position size be divided in two parts. The first part could be used entirely for defense. Its job is to cover the drawdown; A clear-cut task. As soon as half your position size is covering the current drawdown hit exit.

It is simple and has a very powerful meaning. It means, that half your trading method has a RR of 1:2 and the other half has no risk at all! This has a very powerful impact on a traders psyche. For a prolonged success, spanning decades, a trader is better off having a solid set of principles behind his trading rules as opposed to following trading calls or randomly making or editing rules.

An aggressive trader will want to use Position Size and Exits to the best. He knows that these two are the only aspects of his trading that he can control. So might as well break a leg.

One such approach would be to increase position size by, say, 10% after every two Stop Loss hits, for example. It also reflects that the trader is unfazed by string of losses. Needless to say aggressive trading requires several years of experience and an established trading account. There is a very clear distinction between being aggressive and taking the road to Boom and Bust.

Enjoy trading.
 

gmt900

Well-Known Member
Re: Exits and Position Sizing.

Exits and position sizing fulfill a traders vision. There is no right or wrong vision. A trader could earn 20% a month or struggle to beat the index. Either way it is his vision he is fulfilling.

A conservative trader will go about a defensive way in setting his exits. Every trading method is prone to Drawdowns. Spending countless hours fine tuning the trading method will not prove much fruitful. Instead he could set his exits to fulfill his conservative vision. One such way is as follows:

Entire position size be divided in two parts. The first part could be used entirely for defense. Its job is to cover the drawdown; A clear-cut task. As soon as half your position size is covering the current drawdown hit exit.

It is simple and has a very powerful meaning. It means, that half your trading method has a RR of 1:2 and the other half has no risk at all! This has a very powerful impact on a traders psyche. For a prolonged success, spanning decades, a trader is better off having a solid set of principles behind his trading rules as opposed to following trading calls or randomly making or editing rules.

An aggressive trader will want to use Position Size and Exits to the best. He knows that these two are the only aspects of his trading that he can control. So might as well break a leg.

One such approach would be to increase position size by, say, 10% after every two Stop Loss hits, for example. It also reflects that the trader is unfazed by string of losses. Needless to say aggressive trading requires several years of experience and an established trading account. There is a very clear distinction between being aggressive and taking the road to Boom and Bust.

Enjoy trading.
Hi jamit,
Good to read your post after a gap of two days.
I have been revising the basic rules of 315 system. I also am in the process of backtesting the system for nifty since Jan 2011.
I will post my doubts after I am substantially thr' the exercise.
Regards,
gmt900
 

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
Re: Exits and Position Sizing.

Hi jamit,
Good to read your post after a gap of two days.
I have been revising the basic rules of 315 system. I also am in the process of backtesting the system for nifty since Jan 2011.
I will post my doubts after I am substantially thr' the exercise.
Regards,
gmt900
The method is someone else's and it has to be made our own, hence the process of back-testing is very important.

Things you should note are
--------------------------
1) Maximum Drawdown
2) Maximum Profit coming from the highest price of the trend (It is always more than Profit from Signals). This figure helps us make sure whether DDs can really be covered by the method.
3) Total trades (winners, losers % etc)
4) Avg Number of trades per month.

After which you can decide whether the method fulfills your requirement or not.

One another method you could back-test is Gurmy's. Due to high frequency of trades it will train you well in taking Stop Loss, exits, Position sizing and entries. Plus gurmy is very welcoming to questions and doubts. You will be in good hands. :cool:

http://www.traderji.com/swing-trading/76776-nifty-swing-trading-ideas-without-ta.html
 
Last edited:

gmt900

Well-Known Member
Re: Exits and Position Sizing.

The method is someone else's and it has to be made our own, hence the process of back-testing is very important.

Things you should note are
--------------------------
1) Maximum Drawdown
2) Maximum Profit coming from the highest price of the trend (It is always more than Profit from Signals). This figure helps us make sure whether DDs can really be covered by the method.
3) Total trades (winners, losers % etc)
4) Avg Number of trades per month.

After which you can decide whether the method fulfills your requirement or not.

One another method you could back-test is Gurmy's. Due to high frequency of trades it will train you well in taking Stop Loss, exits, Position sizing and entries. Plus gurmy is very welcoming to questions and doubts. You will be in good hands. :cool:

http://www.traderji.com/swing-trading/76776-nifty-swing-trading-ideas-without-ta.html
Dear Jamit,
I have attempted to backtest 315 system for 2011 & 2012, based on the rules discussed by us.
I have skipped four trades after a big move in the direction of trend. Number of trades were as follows :

2011 : Positive trades 8
Neagative trades 3
Skipped trades 8

Total trades 19

2012 : Positve trades 5
Negative trades 10
Skipped trades 4

Total trades 19

There were two big moves in 2011 , one of 530 points and the other of 524 points. There was one big move in 2012 of 532 points.
The average number of trades per month comes to 1.5.
Total profit in 2011 comes to 1576 points, while that in 2012 so far comes to 489 points.
Maximum profit from the highest price in the direction of trend comes to 737, 1100 and 858 points .
Maximum drawdown comes to 184 points.
Obvious conclusion from the above is that it meets our requirements. Having said that, however, there is a lot of fine tuning required to be done.
For example, since Dec 13 2012 to Dec 28,2012, the difference between EMA3 and EMA 15 is too close to decide whether to reverse the trade or let it ride. It is easier to backtest than take a trade.
One more question that comes to my mind is, what is the advantage of using a software like Amibroker over TAME of nse ?
I have gone long on 6100 C Jan series @ 62 on Dec 20. As we discussed I have not put a stop loss and it is trading at 36 now.
Thanks and regards,
Gmt900
 

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
Re: Exits and Position Sizing.

The average number of trades per month comes to 1.5.

Total profit in 2011 comes to 1576 points, while that in 2012 so far comes to 489 points.

Maximum profit from the highest price in the direction of trend comes to 737, 1100 and 858 points .

Maximum drawdown comes to 184 points.

Gmt900

As you see, there are very few... too few trades.

DD is 184 points and Maximum profit potential is much much more... that is nice. So as soon as your target is met and DD is covered take all your money out... :) This will ensure much more gains than waiting for a SAR signal.

No fine tuning is possible; it will come with an expense. If it is signal you gotta take it. In the end you will be profitable, cuz YOU have a system.

The only problem I see is that, I would like to get more experience first. Trade more aggressively. Get used to the realities of trading. Having only 1.5 trades a month is not enough.

You will have to switch to Futures soon. As soon as you believe that SL must be taken.
 

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
So Jamit can you share how much you have made this year so far? I would love to see some contract notes.....

You need to trust the system... not some virtual entity. Devise any trading system, learn the correct psychology that market rewards... that is time well invested. You could join gmt, he is on the verge of getting a profitable system not me.... :)
 

aditya14

Well-Known Member
I was thinking of starting my own website and the first thing ill show ppl is my tax return of past 4 years so that people know iam not a virtual entity making up stuff hence i thought maybe u have some similar thing.....

Nothing personal don`t take offense but how can someone take anyone seriously when that person doesn`t have any track record...?
 

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
I was thinking of starting my own website and the first thing ill show ppl is my tax return of past 4 years so that people know iam not a virtual entity making up stuff hence i thought maybe u have some similar thing.....

Nothing personal don`t take offense but how can someone take anyone seriously when that person doesn`t have any track record...?
What is there to take offense. I am only publishing what I have in mind. I do not consider this a source of income. In return, what I get is to meet folks like parttime, Gurmy, gmt900 and other like them.... I end up learning.

In fact, I am considering putting a format on my trading system and publishing it here along with my trades so that folks could give feedback..... but in due time... (if that is what you were hinting at :)