Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGLORY]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.18.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is influenced today by key economic indicators from both the UK and the US. In the UK, the latest retail sales figures from the Office for National Statistics will be closely watched. Retail sales are a primary indicator of consumer spending and economic health; a better-than-expected result could boost the GBP currency. In the US, data from the Treasury Department on long-term securities purchases (TIC) and building permits provide insights into economic activity. Positive data from the US could strengthen the USD symbol, putting downward pressure on GBP USD forex pair. Additionally, the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller could offer clues about future US monetary policy, potentially adding volatility to the pair.


Price Action
The GBPUSD H4 chart reveals that the pair has been in a bearish trend for the past few weeks, although the most recent candles show some bullish recovery attempts. Out of the last candles, some of the last candles have turned bullish, indicating possible signs of short-term consolidation or retracement. The GBPUSD price is currently attempting to break above the lower boundary of the parabolic channel (in dark orange), which it has been trading below, indicating ongoing bearish momentum. However, if the price manages to break and hold above the 1.30204 level, further upside could be expected, leading to a potential shift in market sentiment.


Key Technical Indicators
%R Indicator: The Williams %R is at -57.93, which is mid-range and indicates that the price is neither overbought nor oversold. This suggests that while the price has some room for movement in either direction, the current trend remains bearish until further evidence shows otherwise.
Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): The Stochastic indicator shows a value of 80.92 and 76.87, indicating that the pair is nearing overbought conditions. This might suggest a short-term pullback or consolidation before any continued upward movement, especially if resistance levels are not breached.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots (in DeepSkyBlue) are currently positioned above the GBP USD price, confirming the ongoing bearish trend. The price is attempting to push through the lower boundary of the channel, indicating a potential breakout if momentum builds. However, traders should be cautious, as the overall trend remains bearish until the parabolic dots shift below the price.


Support and Resistance
Support: The immediate support level is at 1.29800, which aligns with a previous low and the lower boundary of the Fibonacci retracement level.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is at 1.30250, with a higher level at 1.30880, which corresponds with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and could act as a barrier if the price attempts to move higher.


Conclusion and Consideration
The GBP-USD currency pair is currently attempting to recover from its bearish trend on the H4 chart. Despite recent bullish candles, the trend remains predominantly bearish, as indicated by technical indicators such as the Parabolic SAR and Williams %R. Traders should monitor support at 1. 29800 and resistance at 1.30250 closely. A break above 1.30250 could lead to further bullish momentum, but failure to hold above this level may result in continued bearish pressure. Market participants should also keep an eye on the upcoming US and UK economic data releases for potential impacts on GBP/USD volatility.


Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and traders should conduct their own analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
10.18.2024

 

[FXGLORY]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.21.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD news analysis today is influenced by various fundamental factors, including news from both the Eurozone and the United States. In the Eurozone, the Producer Price Index (PPI) released by Destatis remains a key indicator as it signals potential inflationary pressures. An actual result above the forecast would support the Euro; however, the release is still pending. Simultaneously, ongoing IMF meetings in Washington, which cover global economic outlooks and policies, could add volatility, particularly if significant policy shifts are announced. On the US side, several speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Lorie Logan and Neel Kashkari, are anticipated. Given the potential hawkish tones, these discussions could bolster the USD, creating further downward pressure on the EUR/USD exchange rate.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD H4 candle chart, displays a consistent bearish trend with lower highs and lower lows, reflecting a continuation of selling pressure. The price remains below key levels, and attempts at a recovery are meeting resistance, as shown by several red candles indicating selling dominance. The pair’s price action shows that its price is currently hovering near a short-term support level at 1.0836, with a slight bounce observed; however, momentum remains weak, suggesting that further declines could be likely if this level fails to hold.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The Ichimoku Cloud shows that EUR/USD is trading well below the cloud, indicating the pair’s strong bearish sentiment. The Tenkan-sen (red) is below the Kijun-sen (blue), signaling ongoing selling pressure. Additionally, the leading span of the cloud remains thick and bearish, indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend.
MACD: The MACD indicator shows bearish momentum, as the MACD line is below the signal line and the histogram bars are negative. The distance between the lines is still widening, which reinforces the bearish sentiment and suggests that further downside movement may continue if the price remains below key levels.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 45.93, indicating bearish momentum but not yet reaching oversold levels. This positioning shows that while there is still room for further downward movement, the market might pause or consolidate before continuing the decline.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The immediate support is seen at 1.0836, with further support at 1.0800. If these levels are breached, it could open the way to deeper declines, possibly toward the 1.0770 zone.
Resistance Levels: Resistance is observed at 1.0896, followed by a stronger resistance level at 1.0930, which aligns with the top of the recent consolidation range. A break above these levels could suggest a reversal; however, given the current trend, this is less likely.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD fundamental analysis continues to show bearish tendencies as global economic events and speeches from key US Federal Reserve members keep the market under pressure. The pair’s technical analysis on its H4 chart, with the confirmations of the Ichimoku Cloud, MACD, and RSI, all point to ongoing bearish momentum, with the price struggling to overcome resistance levels. Traders should watch for further declines if support at 1.0836 is broken and remain cautious about potential EURUSD volatility from the IMF meetings and upcoming economic data. Effective risk management strategies, such as setting stop-loss orders and monitoring key fundamental news events, are essential in this current trading environment.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
10.21.2024