Daily Nifty Analysis

[Dusant]

Daily Nifty Analysis as on 14 Aug 06

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the chart, check the link below.
Again, there isnt much to add from Fridays chart. I have just stepped back a little, and shown where the Nifty was receiving resistance. I have marked out the zone and also the specific points.
The bulls are doing their best to keep the Nifty from correcting downwards. They do not want the fence sitters to now enter at lower levels. The fence sitters have still not entered the market in a buying frenzy.
In due deference to the 400+ points rise from 24th, I would suggest that those among us who have indeed entered at lower levels, could tighten stops, to lock in profits. That would allow us to keep the market from taking out our profits back.
Unfortunately, from all the messages I am reading on various blogs, groups and websites, I perceive that traders are getting more and more engrossed in day trading, rather than stepping back and looking at the larger picture.
The Nifty has come out from a huge resistance zone between 3170 and 3200. Which could imply more confidence on the bullish bias.

 

[srisara]

Dusant (or Dushyanth?)

either way.. A Very good analysis from you. keep posting..

Satya...

 

[Dusant]

Dusant (or Dushyanth?)

either way.. A Very good analysis from you. keep posting..

Satya...

Hello Satya,

Thank you for your kind words.

The name is Dushyant but when I was trading forex, a foreigner "named" me as Dusant (very French name), and my analysis started appearing on various places with my pseudonym.

Better than trying to fight it, I adopted the name Dusant as my nom-de-plume.

I know .... I know ... there are some among us who are not familiar with French phrases, so I have included links for those words.

Dusant

 

[kuldeep49]

Hello Satya,

Thank you for your kind words.

The name is Dushyant but when I was trading forex, a foreigner "named" me as Dusant (very French name), and my analysis started appearing on various places with my pseudonym.

Better than trying to fight it, I adopted the name Dusant as my nom-de-plume.

I know .... I know ... there are some among us who are not familiar with French phrases, so I have included links for those words.

Dusant

Hey, I like Dusant better ... carry on friend, you are doing a great job. I really appreciate your succinct analyses.
Flicitations!
Kuldeep

 

[Dusant]

Daily Nifty Analysis as on 16 Aug 06

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the chart, check the link below.
In intervening holiday seems to have brought strong bullish emotions to the fore. The Index broke out up with a large gap. The breakout is more significant because it has moved out of an ascending triangle, which is considered to be an extremely bullish pattern. The high of today hit a roadblock due to profit booking. This profit booking is understandable, as a previous swing low on 16 May at 12:00 hrs registered a low of 3383. The previous demand zone normally exerts a supply resistance, as those who would have bought at higher levels, would be trying to exit at breakeven.
The turnovers on both BSE as well as the NSE were extremely good, again reflecting strong pent up demand. My personal trending indicators are still showing no weakness. True, the short term indicators are in overbought region, but that does not mean that the Index will collapse. It is natural to expect some mild correction.
The climb up of the Index over the last nine weeks has been laboured, no doubt, as it had to break through a lot of resistances. Now these very same resistances would turn as supports.
This brings as back to our mantra of buying on dips. And keep tight stops to lock in profits.

 

[aca_trader]

Re: Daily Nifty Analysis as on 16 Aug 06

The breakout is more significant because it has moved out of an ascending triangle, which is considered to be an extremely bullish pattern.

In the ascending triangle pattern, the resistence or the upper boundry is flat, is not it?

Should not we call it a rising wedge?

Best Regards,
--Ashish

 

[Dusant]

Re: Daily Nifty Analysis as on 16 Aug 06

In the ascending triangle pattern, the resistence or the upper boundry is flat, is not it?

Should not we call it a rising wedge?

Best Regards,
--Ashish

Hello Ashish,

Thank you for giving me this opportunity to clarify my analysis. Call it whatever we like, we also need to understand the psychology of the pattern. The pattern suggests that buying pressure keeps on coming in at higher levels, and selling pressure also comes in at higher levels.

Which is ideally suited for a bull.

Rather than get embroiled in the intricacies of "proper" labelling, let us see what the market is telling us, that is my very simple funda.

Trade happy.

Dusant

 

[aca_trader]

Re: Daily Nifty Analysis as on 16 Aug 06

Rather than get embroiled in the intricacies of "proper" labelling, let us see what the market is telling us, that is my very simple funda.

Trade happy.

Dusant

I am not getting embrioled into anything.
The reason I had put it 'coz no doubt it's your own analysis but when it's put on a public platform, very certainly the public is going to view it and it may cause confusions for some inexperienced hands like me when they read somewhere else as to what is wedge and what is ascending triangle alongwith assertions that rising wedge have a bias towards bearishness while ascending triangles have a bias towards bullishness.
That's why need to use standard definitions is stressed, was felt and shared. Else, as bard did put it "What is in a name?" Be it Bull or Bear.

So far as psychology is concerned, thanks for sharing it.

Regards,
--Ashish

 

[Dusant]

Re: Daily Nifty Analysis as on 16 Aug 06

Hello Ashish,

I did not mean to accuse you of your being embroiled personally. It was just a general statement, because as you said, this is a public forum.

I take your point that I should stick to the more accepted nomenclatures of labelling.

Trade happy,

Dusant

 

[aca_trader]

Re: Daily Nifty Analysis as on 16 Aug 06

Trade happy,

Dusant

Thanks & same to you.
Looking forward to more of your analysis.

Best Regards,
--Ashish