Daily Tryst with Nifty

MurAtt

Well-Known Member
#94
WoW is only what one can say -- a one way ride -- (made up a lot of losses I had made from the rise of 4300-4700)

What a change of perception - Bull to Bear ---
Now everyone will be crying 4200-4000-3500 (gap filling etc) :)

No profit booking at EOD -- are we to expect a Gap Down 2morrow!!!!
 

arnav_rulz

Well-Known Member
#95
Arnav, it has also closed the INTRADAY gap of today!!!
And Look where it ended...

Now everyone knows that Unfilled gaps sometimes act as resistance and supports.. But according to me.. Just another tukka type thing but noticed a lot from me..

Before starting a Very strong upmove or downmove, Nifty starts leaving unfilled gaps and once the move is near an end.. It starts filling all the gaps (not the previous ones but the new ones which are formed everyday due to gap up/down)

So Since past many days nifty also started filling all its gaps and thus an indication that the Upmove may halt now and thus the only reason i started shorting when the gaps started to fill up..

Also while going down, nifty is filling the gaps thus according to me this should not be a heavy downmove like a downward trend for nifty.. It should consolidate now..
 
#96
Arnav: Great stuff!

While change of trend is mentioned as filling of recently created gaps...so it might be possible that after changing direction.. it might catch up momentum with gap downs & start filling unfilled gaps EOD?

I am a big fan of gaps and trying to understand how the index behaves around them!

There are huge gaps left by NF on EOD and as per gap theory they would be filled sooner or later but the question is can we start a new bull run before filling them?

We have unfilled gaps at 6045-6055, 5691-5700, UC and all lower we all know.

Higher ones are understandable as we can take them out in new bull run but what abt the lowest one starting with 2637-2650! :)

As per Gap theory they should all be filled :)

Looking forward to your response!

Regards
 

MurAtt

Well-Known Member
#97
Reason for the downmove -- Maybe

In a move that could make foreign institutional investors (FIIs) rethink their investing plans in India, the finance ministry has suggested a lock-in for such investments.

The Ministry babus may be biting more than they can chew in their effort to keep a clear-cut distinction between foreign direct investments from institutional money through FIIs.
It now wants a minimum lock-in for such money flow.
The letter written to the committee of secretaries headed by the cabinet secretary says, “Keeping in view the volatility of capital flows associated with large withdrawals by FIIs, a minimum lock-in period for FIIs could be prescribed."

While one extreme view may support a lock-in, this could definitely end up being a huge sentiment dampener.
In 2008 FIIs pulled out $13 billion, taking the stock market down by half. Even as that can be blamed on global conditions, market players say that any form of a lock-in for stock market investments is impractical
Abhay Aima, an investment analyst said, “This is a part of the ongoing discussion on guidelines for treatment of foreign investment on the same matter.”

The commerce ministry has recommended uniform investment conditions for both FII and FDI in sectors that have FDI caps and other entry route restrictions.
The finance ministry has opposed this move saying that FII investments should be treated differently and shouldn't be subjected to same norms as FDI. It has even opposed need for FIPB approval for FII investments.
But strangely enough, while it supports the cause of FIIs vehemently, it has also countered its entire stand by proposing a lock-in clause for FII investments.

The proposal to lock-in FII investments will now be taken up by the committee of secretaries, which will chart out the final path for a decison on this, but if the government decides to bring in a lock-in clause it may impact FII investments severely.
 

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