The stock markets have been having a ball for some months now, ever since they smelt a change in government, and especially after the installation of the Narendra Modi government with a clear BJP majority. The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex is hovering below 26000 and an Economic Times roundtable ?of market mavens predicts that the index could head for 31,000 by March 2015 - that is, an upside of another 20 percent from here.
Is this going to happen? Or are the markets over-optimistic on what Arun Jaitley can deliver in his very first budget scheduled for 10 July?
There are two contradictory forces at work right now, and the chances are the markets will probably fall after the budget before beginning a climb again in the run-up to the next budget in February 2015.
The factors which point to a fall after the budget are the following.
One, no matter what the budget does, the short-term prognosis for growth is weak and inflation is not going to be tamed in a hurry. Arun Jaitley is not Superman who can reduce subsidies, raise taxes and non-tax revenues, and find resources for investment in infrastructure - all in one budget. Some degree of economic realism will set in after the budget, even if it is overall in the right direction.
Two, the market has risen almost without a pause since mid-2013, rising almost 50 percent from its lows of August 2013. This year, over Rs 64,000 crore has been invested in equity by foreign institutional investors (FIIs). Both FIIs and the market have to stop some time for breath; ie, the markets have to correct at some point. The logical point is the budget, once irrational exuberance is tempered by economic reality.
Three, there is the demand-supply issue. This year may be a big year for the supply of fresh equity. If the budget announces a huge increase in disinvestment targets, and many companies plan IPOs or rights issues to tank up on equity and reduce debt, there is going to be a phenomenal increase in equity on offer to investors. A Reuters report says the budget is pencilling in revenues of Rs 70,000 crore from disinvestment, "almost equal to all proceeds over the last four years."
The Economic Times reports that "the number of companies planning to hit the street with primary offers is increasing with every passing day", both because private sector promoters are planning to raise fresh equity and because listed public sector companies have to raise public holdings to a minimum of 25 percent of the total equity under a new Sebi regulation. The ET Intelligence Group estimates that public sector companies will have to "issue shares worth Rs 62,000 crore to comply with the Sebi mandate."
The point is the stock market is going to be flooded with equity over the rest of the year. When supply of equity rises, unless demand also rises, prices will weaken. If government is going to raise around Rs 80,000 crore, the private sector raises, say, half that amount, and public sector companies raise another Rs 20,000 crore, that's a huge overhang of Rs 1,40,000 crore of fresh equity in the markets. Usually, when the IPO market booms, investors sell secondary market stock to invest in new issues. This points to some potential for weakening this year. However, the medium-term bull factors remain strong too .
First, the global markets continue to be awash with liquidity, and the Dow is continuing to rise. When global markets perform well, India follows suit.
Second, the stock markets, despite a year-long bull run, are currently valued at less than GDP - around 90 percent of GDP. According to the Warren Buffett thumb-rule , one should be wary if the market is valued above GDP. India's is well below current GDP levels, and if GDP rises even 5 percent in 2014-15 after the budget, the market may have another 15 percent to rise by March 2015.
So, what are we saying net-net? Two things: the market may correct after the budget due to its recent breathless rise, but, as long as the budget is not a disaster, the Sensex will resume its climb after a correction. From October 2014, the index could head north once more. The writer is editor-in-chief, digital and publishing, Network18 Group