problem: Failure to take responsibility
trading can be characterized as a pure, unencumbered personal choice with an immediate outcome.
Remember, nothing happens until we decide to start; it lasts as long as we want; and it doesn't end until
we decide to stop. All of these beginnings, middles, and endings are the result of our interpretation of
the information available and how we choose to act on our interpretation. Now, we may want the
freedom to make choices, but that doesn't mean we are ready and willing to accept the responsibility
for the outcomes. Traders who are not ready to accept responsibility for the outcomes of their
interpretations and actions will find themselves in a dilemma: How does one participate in an activity
that allows complete freedom of choice, and at the same time avoid taking responsibility if the outcome
of one's choices are unexpected and not to one's liking?
The hard reality of trading is that, if you want to create consistency, you have to start from the premise
that no matter what the outcome, you are completely responsible. This is a level of responsibility few
people have aspired to before they decide to become traders. The way to avoid responsibility is to adopt
a trading style that is, to all intents and purposes, random. I define random trading as poorly-planned
trades or trades that are not planned at all. It is an unorganized approach that takes into consideration an
unlimited set of market variables, which do not allow you to find out what works on a consistent basis
and what does not.
Randomness is unstructured freedom without responsibility.
when we trade without well-defined plans and with an unlimited set of variables, it's very easy to take credit for the trades that turn out to our liking (because there was "some" method present). At the same
time, it's very easy to avoid taking responsibility for the trades that didn't turn out the way we wanted
(because there's always some variable we didn't know about and therefore couldn't take into
consideration beforehand). If the markets behavior were truly random, then it would be difficult if not
impossible to create consistency. If it's impossible to be consistent, then we really don't have to take
responsibility. The problem with this logic is that our direct experience of the markets tells us
something different. The same behavior patterns present themselves over and over again. Even though
the outcome of each individual pattern is random, the outcome of a series of patterns is consistent
(statistically reliable). This is a paradox, but one that is easily resolved with a disciplined, organized,
and consistent approach.