Demand and Supply zone trading

Tavnaz

Well-Known Member
See the example chart below :-

Blue line is the complex pullback on right side 5 TF chart


Even before i continue,i hope you do know by now why bar high or low are ****** up places.
If you haven't,i will repeat again.
The bar on one time frame can be a swing on a lower time frame.
So if a 1 hour is stopping at, dropping from the last 1 hourly bar high,it is not magic,it is just pure supply and demand,that high or low is a supply zone or demand zone on some lower time frame.
A candle being just a mere tool recording the lower time frame recorded entire move of the smaller time frame and presents what happened on to the higher time frame candle.
Since most big moves happen in minutes,you can be sure to say that 10 minute or 1 hour candle will definitely record the supply or demand zone,in the form of high or low.
Take an example of a 1 hour candle,if it has a 5 min supply zone inside it and price drops and rises it will stop at the zone again,so that zone will be recorded as high or low of the bar.
That is why i say,given enough time say 1 hour or 15 min or 5 min you can be sure price will record the places of orders in the candle as high or low.
High or lows are not just random thing,they are valuable,they show how are orders in the market like.

In short high lows of bars are bad places to buy or sell on,70 percent of the time high/low wont break that easy.

 
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Tavnaz

Well-Known Member
Market can only do three types of things up,down sideways,but that is not all that characterizes the market movement,
I have found that we can fit almost every move made by market into 4 types of movement categories,The following image represents those types.
You can reverse them and use them as a resistance or down move you catch my drift.
Image A:
The image A represents a fast move,almost all pinbars,and rejection and touch and go bars fall into this categories.
Amandeep asked sometimes we don't get any PA and price just shoots up these are that type of bars.
My answer to go about them is simple,we don't try to catch the immediate reversal instead we let price shoot from the point and knock sideways into a range and place our entry in the second test in sideways range.
Pretty simple just let price shoot up,and start dropping at some point and make a low and let it rise,then buy at the second test marked by black lines.
Continue to check the higher time frame for how the bar looks like ,only then consider buying on second test in the range
If price never goes sideways,then bad luck you don't enter,move is too fast for you to take.

Example of nifty and how it has a stride and ranging periods:
In nifty while i did my TA on it i figured that it actually moves too fast,it trades once a day for 6 hours and it has a stride in one direction.
So most of the time nifty moves like a fast move with pivot highs cracking in the direction decided by the higher time frames.
But one most striking observation i noticed is the ranging periods in each day in nifty,which is related to what i suggested in the image A and D.
Market opens with the breakout pressure close to 915 and goes sideways by the time till 1030 which then further breaks close to mid day then market ranges again by 1330.
I typically observe the periods when price ranges so i just observed it,because ranging periods give chance to enter in a trend,


Following image shows a few considerations while trading types of bars that fall into image A category.

Normally trading it:


When higher time frame doesn't agree with it,you see both of the below actually are not that fast,you have to see them and it will all come to you.
Anyone can tell they are not fast anymore they are slow.
The Key is to know what higher time frame looks like they will decide what will happen and what PA will form.





Image B

Image B is Double Bottom or Top
Price moves in the zone reacts with good bullish engulfing bar and pattern on higher time frame starts looking bullish,and then you trade the second test with stop below first bullish engulfing.
In here you also have to be careful if the price while approaching second test isn't too bearish and how does higher time frame looks like ,when price first reacted from the zone price should look good on the higher time frame ,bullish enough to break the high of last bar on higher time frame,and while going back to zone price should be less bearish.

The Pattern officially resolves when neck line breaks in one bar and price moves up above neckline.
If pattern breaks below first bullish engulfing strongly in a single bar, it is no longer valid.
If pattern rejects below first engulfing bar and frms another bullish engulfing you do the trade again at your own risk thresh hold.

Image C




Image C shows a support.
They don't necessarily look strong as they don't always form engulfing bars on all tests but they still can drop price if the price stays in them for long time.
We trade them as close to high or low(in case of uptrend high vice versa for down trend),when price is approaching the zone and is forming a support we let price drop ,then trade second test if good pattern is there on second test(price should stay in black line after rejection)second test and all subsequent test must always cause price to reach same lows.
If price is not reaching same lows it can be bad,and it may not be support it can be a triangle or breakout formation.
Alternatively you can trade the support to trade in direction of trend rather then reverse it,if you feel support is going to fail,just buy/sell on the exact opposite side.

If you don't want to trade the support at high or lows just trade the support after neck line breaks,but your stop will be big and chance of getting caught in rejection high.





Image D

This is just a Bull move or a bear move,
Price moves in one direction makes range which you can call support then support breaks,then move continues.
You always enter on second test of the ranged move.
As with the fast move you need to be careful not to buy second test if pattern is bad on higher time frame.
Simple isn't it


The Characteristic moves


 
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wisp

Well-Known Member
Starting with the most simplest query.
Yes wisp i would buy as close to the pink line which you have marked.
Me being just a human and not god so, i can't actually buy at the exact low of the second bullish engulfing marked by your pink line,but once i see price is approaching close to the the low of the very first bullish engulfing,i place my order there with sops behind first engulfing bar.
So price is still dropping while i buy ,and price finally turns into bullish engulfing later on.

A tip only buy or sell after bar close has happened close to the second test.
in this image in quotes once price hit the nearest supply zone price made a bearish engulfing and we know bearish engulfing can make a price drop so we wait for another 15 min bar to complete then we buy.

image A

Some times we just buy randomly while the bars are approaching low of the first engulfing bar (in case price wants to move fast ).
image b



Ultimate purpose purpose however totally being to buy as close to the low of the first engulfing bar.

Reason why we don't buy the first bar that forms of the zone is simple we don't want to get caught in the possibility of catching a dumb bounce,so we wait for first bar to form,see how much strong it looks and what has it done to the higher time frames,if the first reaction as we approach the zone was good enough,and it made good bars on higher time frame, we can trade the second test or higher low vice versa for down trend.

Word of caution :
1. Please remember this i never buy on engulfing highs,ie i don't trade the engulfing bar itself,i wait for it to form and rise then make the pattern on the higher time frame bullish enough,then when the price pulls back(after hitting nearest supply zone or nearest lower high what ever you can call it) and makes a higher low ( image scenerio),we buy then.

2. Engulfing bar is not a god bar,remember we are traders nothing is certain,but if you spot one good bar and they have made the higher time frames bearish enough or bullish enough then you can trade them on second test or higher test.

3. I would prefer to trade the demand and supply zones in a trend only.
So a trend is up and price pulling back we buy on last demand zone formed on the way up.

4. If indeed you cannot resist to pick ends of trend, wait for price to start a cycle of lower highs and lows first in an uptrend vice versa for downtrend.
In this case trade the supply zones formed on the way down after the cycle changed.
Wait for higher time frame to top out
Tavnaz Bro, Thanks for the very nice and clear explanation. You have solved for me a puzzle that has confounded me for years (to be precise since 2011!! - it was about exits at that time, but the same principle) thank you!! :clap::clap::clap::thanx::thanx::thanx:
 

wisp

Well-Known Member
Even before i continue,i hope you do know by now why bar high or low are ****** up places.
If you haven't,i will repeat again.
The bar on one time frame can be a swing on a lower time frame.
So if a 1 hour is stopping at, dropping from the last 1 hourly bar high,it is not magic,it is just pure supply and demand,that high or low is a supply zone or demand zone on some lower time frame.
A candle being just a mere tool recording the lower time frame recorded entire move of the smaller time frame and presents what happened on to the higher time frame candle.
Since most big moves happen in minutes,you can be sure to say that 10 minute or 1 hour candle will definitely record the supply or demand zone,in the form of high or low.
Take an example of a 1 hour candle,if it has a 5 min supply zone inside it and price drops and rises it will stop at the zone again,so that zone will be recorded as high or low of the bar.
That is why i say,given enough time say 1 hour or 15 min or 5 min you can be sure price will record the places of orders in the candle as high or low.
High or lows are not just random thing,they are valuable,they show how are orders in the market like.

In short high lows of bars are bad places to buy or sell on,70 percent of the time high/low wont break that easy.

Hourly bar on 3 min Nifty

 
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Tavnaz

Well-Known Member
Tavnaz Bro, Thanks for the very nice and clear explanation. You have solved for me a puzzle that has confounded me for years (to be precise since 2011!! - it was about exits at that time, but the same principle) thank you!! :clap::clap::clap::thanx::thanx::thanx:
Just out of curiosity tell me, what puzzle was it wisp bro.
 

wisp

Well-Known Member
Just out of curiosity tell me, what puzzle was it wisp bro.
Exiting or entering near S/R. My exits/entries in these situations have always been at pivot low/high because I did not understand the logic behind exiting or entering right near S/R, often resulting in losing some profit or the losing trade becoming more painful when sl hits after entry. I couldn't get my head around it at all for years. Most recently I had tried to get this cleared here http://www.traderji.com/general-tra...68-general-trading-chat-2649.html#post1118291 Thanks a LOT again bro!!
 

Tavnaz

Well-Known Member
Bro, curiously waiting to learn about this..What is it?
I will add notes to that image by editing it.
Notes make it a mechanical process as amandeep created a flow chart it will clear out the ambiguity after all we need to trade those pattern in real time not just read about them.
I can vouch for the fact that Double tops and bottoms and supports are real,but most tech analysis books and silly traders make them just a thing to be mentioned,nobody tells us how to really go about them.
Nobody told me,i gotta see them then learn about them more.
So i will add notes to it.
It will answer the complex pullback that amandeep mentioned,and other things.
 

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