diary of a day trader

[VIKAS 21]

Just a observation:

1.In daily chart most of the stocks take support at 200SMA.

2.In weekly chart most of the stocks take support at 30SMA.

 

[Smart_trade]

ST da,

I read from Larry Connors book that VIX is dynamic indicator and not static one. So how to know levels of VIX that are considered to be low/high? Just static values such as 10-17 may not work, need some different criterion for this. Can you suggest one?

Regards,
Gaur_Krishna

QUOTE=Smart_trade;805296]For me such signals are much more powerful than any support/resistance levels break.

Increase in VIX as important event is coming near and uncertainty building up as the market going up.

ST

[/QUOTE]

Yes VIX is a dynamic indicator. So it is very difficult to pin point the levels which could be considered high/low. Reference to the past levels could be misleading. But considering the factors which are moving VIX and then applying those factors to historical volatility levels may give some clue.

It is not uncommon to see VIX going very high when markets are rallying up or crashing down and VIX going very low when markets are consolidating after a bear market and no body seems interested in the markets. And as we all know , VIX too like markets has a tendency to spill over on either side.

Smart_trade

 

[Smart_trade]

In today's RBI policy, going by the the comments of RBI Governer yesterday,RBI is not likely to be very liberal in which case the markets will go down. But will it trigger a lintermediate downtrend ? I doubt very much. That is because this uptrend is fuelled by drop in commodity prices and pumping of money in the system by all central banks of the world. This is going to continue.

So after a drop , I expect the market to stabilise in 2-3 days and resume its upmove for next few days till the market starts factoring election uncertainties and problems associated with it.

But markets all over the world are running on liquidity ahead of fundamentals. So in the long term,caution is adviced.

Smart_trade

 

[ajeetsingh]

BankNifty Futures
If RBI cut 50 Basis Point then future will move 12850 to 13100 level
If RBI cut 25 Basis Point then futures will crash 12300 to 12000 levels
If Base point is unchanged then futures will see Fall upto 11800 level and ultimate target 11200

 

[soft_trader]

Please let me understand one thing. If there comes a rate cut the USDINR pair will go up or down? I mean Rupee will strengthen or become weak?

 

[arcus]

Please let me understand one thing. If there comes a rate cut the USDINR pair will go up or down? I mean Rupee will strengthen or become weak?

If everything else is equal, an interest rate cut will devalue a currency (Rupee will weaken).

More the interest rate cut (dovish), more will it weaken the Rupee.

Note that weakening the rupee will increase its price relative the the dollar. i.e. lets say it goes from 53.8 to 54 (Rupee is weakened).

 

[ajeetsingh]

Due to electricity failure i am late today

 

[TraderRavi]

buy 5500 put @ 6 rs, sasta maal hai..............:lol:

 

[ajeetsingh]

buy 5500 put @ 6 rs, sasta maal hai..............:lol:

Me, shorted nifty @ 5980

 

[ajeetsingh]

Nifty at crucial level of 5975 and option trend is up