Doubt Relief !!

[vachhanipm]

Hi Karthik,

very very thankful for quick reply. I didntexpected such a prompt reply. Thank u once again. I will wait for the results.

regards

vachhanipm

 

[koolprakash]

Hi Kool

Thanks. OBC had dropped a hundred points the last annual results. In fiscal ending March 2005 the operating income had dropped to 3873 Cr compared 3978 in 2004. The operating profit also droped to 974 Cr compared to 1214 Cr.
Since then it has been moving sideways in a range of 240 to 280. It has tough resistance in the 275 -280 region. This years performance has been better compared to last year. The Q3 results has been also better compared to the last ear. But today OBC has announced that it has scaled down its business target for the current financial year by 10000 Cr. This may be reason for the continued down trend. The sttock has good support around 250. below this would be 240. Amalgamation of GTB has really affect this one time zero NPA bank. It is going to take some time for it to get back to the front line. Banking stocks are presently considered to be under valued and the good investment oppurtunites are considered to be SBI, PNB, ICICI, UBI, HDFC.

It in the short to medium term you cannot expect good returns from this stock. Hence it may be better to exit on rallys and put the money in some good fast growth counter.

regards

Karthik

Thanks Karthik.

 

[ragh_ash]

hi karthik,
what are MA values for volumes do use. i mean one way is to look for patterns and again it should also work if v have something of cross over for MA of volumes.
i have tried MA crossovers for prices as well as volumes plus ADX and TRix reversal. followingstocks have generally shown sharp upward movement and many times with Gap opening.
for example: Alps industries, TTK prestige, KLG systel, Engineers India, and i can go on.
but again the enthusiasm dies down as quickly. is it something to do with extreme bull sentiment of overall market
regards

 

[karthikmarar]

Hi ragh_ash

As per my experience MA on volumes are not really helpful. I do not use any MA on volumes. Of course I also check the volume as it is to confirm the strength of the trend.

I opinion the sudden outburst are either operator manipulations or news driven. That is why the enthusiam dries up soon. The move is not back by the market.

I also use the same combination of indicators mentioned by you. MA, ADX and TRIX. Quite effective. In addition I have my own custom indicator , a TRIX histogram to catch the upward momentums. I have found it quite useful.

During my experiments I found another nice lesser known indicator sometimes called K-39 to provide nice entry points in up moves.


Best regards

Karthik

 

[karthikmarar]

Hi Karthik..
Can you please comment on the longterm prospects of Marico Ltd. and what can be expected of the scrip.
Thansk

Hi harmads

Sorry... had missed this one. Here is my view on the long term propects of Marico

Marico surged ahead in early December after a long period of inactivity. Last week it touch new heights after a very good Q3 results.
Marico's consolidated net profit rose 24% to Rs 21.91 crore. Sales rose 17% to Rs 303.77 crore. The growth in revenues was on the back of 15% volume growth in the Parachute Coconut Oil and 7% growth in the Saffola oil brand. On the other hand, the strong growth in profits was on the back of significant fall in the copra prices, the principal raw material for coconut oil.

About the company

Marico is the market leader in the hair oil segment, with its Parachute and Hair & Care brands. It is also one of the leading players in the branded edible oil segment with strong brands like Saffola and Sweekar. Besides hair and edible oil, the company has a presence in niche segments like Instant Starch (Revive), Anti lice shampoo (Mediker) and food products like jams and sauces (Sil). Marico also has a fee based marketing arrangement with Procter & Gamble (P&G) for marketing a few P&G brands through its own network. Parachute, Saffola and Sweeker are the key earnings drivers, contributing to almost 80% of Maricos turnover.

Fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) business is built on good brand equity and distribution network. Marico is strong on brand equity as it has already established brands like Parachute, Saffola, Sweekar etc.
It has been able to maintain its strong hold in the cocounut oil and edible oil market by a good strategy of coming out with variant so the same brand.
The market for branded edible oil is only 35% of the total and that of branded coconut oil is only 45%. Hence is enough room for growth. It is also making inroads in other hair oil segment like the Amla hair oil dominated by dabur.

Another future growth area could be the fabric care segment currently dominated by marico.

Marico is also concentrating on the international business concentrating on UAE, Bangladesh ( market leader in coconut oil) and even the US. Last year the overseas business contributed nealy 10% of the turnover.

Marico's Kaya skin care clinic has also done qute well. In over two years the number of clinics have grown to 34 numbers. Last year the turnover of this business was about 20Cr. This segment is expected to be a strong contributor for future growth.

Prospects

Overall a growth oriented company. It has transformed itself from a mere oil company to a beauty and wellness company. The FMCG sector is generally expected to do well in the coming year. This will be a very defensive investment with moderate growth. Dont expect spectacular returns. All the actions seem to be in the Construction sector. Manufacturing sector also will do well going by the talk of the FM in Davos.

Regards
Karthik

 

[harmads]

Karthik..

Thankyou very much for your time on my query. I really appreciate this detailed and elaborate opinion on Marico.It will help me.

Also, your comments on Construction and Manufacturing sector are valuable and I would appreciate if you could name a few good companies in these categories whose share could be picked up for a long term (1yr+) investment

Thanks & best regards

 

[anilsharjah]

Dear karthik


I would like to enter sugar stocks. Please post your views about this industry and some good performing companies. Now most of the sugar stocks are under correction. Good time enter or not? Please advise.


Regards


Anil

 

[xtiger]

As discussed in chat room yesterday i have send Gujarat Alkali report by Karvy to your yahoo id.

 

[abheesh]

Can pls help me

Karthik
I have brought Ankur durgs@172 by E Mathews reccom in power Trade and Narmada Chem@44, Lippi Systes@17, and Premier Auto@54 but all in very heavy loss right now what I have to do. I must book loss or hold or avarage it. give me a openion pls. And also if u can advice me some good stocks it will be helpful

Thanks
Abheesh A Azeez

 

[rajesh.sadhanala]

Look boss dont try to average out until u r sure that u r coming up back. I burned my hands by averaging out and holding it and still holding now.

I made a loss of around 50k. Still searching for knowledge in this forum. I hope someone transfer his little bit of knowledge to me.

I prefer u come out of it as early as possible as market looking to crash soon.
All the best

Raj