U
abhijeet,
I know you may again come after few days,but could not restrict myself.
All the countries in our World political map,spends money on weather forecast,becoz not only it helps in Crop production mirroring econmic growth but also in Disaster management.
Summing up the toal quantum of money globally in $ terms is phenomenal.The developed countries Mustur & Leverage their knowledge & reach in doing so.
No nation can claim to do it accurately,may be they will accurately deliver a Bomb through the Chimney of any body's home sitting 5000 km away,but Montek Singh Aluwalia or Nandan Nilkeni or US Fed can forecast to nearest Whole Nos (they may falter about the Nos after the decimal points).
This is not written in a book ,but small time traders like you & me who try to forecast everyday will be in a better position to focus to the Focci in right dimension & perspective.
Asish
I know you may again come after few days,but could not restrict myself.
All the countries in our World political map,spends money on weather forecast,becoz not only it helps in Crop production mirroring econmic growth but also in Disaster management.
Summing up the toal quantum of money globally in $ terms is phenomenal.The developed countries Mustur & Leverage their knowledge & reach in doing so.
No nation can claim to do it accurately,may be they will accurately deliver a Bomb through the Chimney of any body's home sitting 5000 km away,but Montek Singh Aluwalia or Nandan Nilkeni or US Fed can forecast to nearest Whole Nos (they may falter about the Nos after the decimal points).
This is not written in a book ,but small time traders like you & me who try to forecast everyday will be in a better position to focus to the Focci in right dimension & perspective.
Asish
U
Jesse,
Real world gyrations are to be accounted for is a basic pre-requisite for simmulation tests.
Still i am not comfortable until a test on actual mkt is made.Somehow when i saw in CNN,the simmulated testing of Patriots ,landing way out of tgt in actual Iraq war,dont get full satisfaction until the performance can be quantified in actual mkt.
Asish
Real world gyrations are to be accounted for is a basic pre-requisite for simmulation tests.
Still i am not comfortable until a test on actual mkt is made.Somehow when i saw in CNN,the simmulated testing of Patriots ,landing way out of tgt in actual Iraq war,dont get full satisfaction until the performance can be quantified in actual mkt.
Asish
C
Well unlike the missiles you are testing on real data and with proper assumptions it can be totally replicated in real life.The problem with actual market testing is that it will not account for the performance change during different market conditions.A system tested on real-time data during last week wont necessarily work in the same manner going forward.
Forget what is written in the Books.Why we put Stop Loss orders ? Becoz we know that the outcome of my Trade is not known before hand,the instrument i am trading may reverse its present direction of motion.
Now say i make 10 trades with Rs 1.00 SL ,70 % goes against ,i loose Rs 7.00 ,hence in balance 3 trades if the Reward is less than Rs 3.00 i loose a portion of my equity capital.
So i put SL to check drainage of money in those trades which has gone against me.
Now what should be the module to determine that SL price level ?
A price level ,from where the Direction changes.If i know that !!!! (the direction changes from that level ) then should not i be reversing the trade in Double Qty.
We dont KNOW that hence ; ATR / % / below Supp / below Fib / below Trendline etc etc.
So we are back to square one ,we do not KNOW the reversal price level.
Here enters Simple / Complex all type of Money mgmnt / Risk Mgmnt etc for Less drainage of equity capital.
Now would not the approach be to test & find the actual effectiveness of these MM / RM on Random Entry basis ONLY.
Hence before all these our effort should be to find that Price Level,Impossible task ,OK then let us find out a way to overcome this,like Break Out ,Pivot etc.
Why Jesse was trying HH & LL , Saint on Pivot , we are breaking our head on lenghty discussion of Stop Loss & its module.
.............
another gem of post from asishda
Now say i make 10 trades with Rs 1.00 SL ,70 % goes against ,i loose Rs 7.00 ,hence in balance 3 trades if the Reward is less than Rs 3.00 i loose a portion of my equity capital.
So i put SL to check drainage of money in those trades which has gone against me.
Now what should be the module to determine that SL price level ?
A price level ,from where the Direction changes.If i know that !!!! (the direction changes from that level ) then should not i be reversing the trade in Double Qty.
We dont KNOW that hence ; ATR / % / below Supp / below Fib / below Trendline etc etc.
So we are back to square one ,we do not KNOW the reversal price level.
Here enters Simple / Complex all type of Money mgmnt / Risk Mgmnt etc for Less drainage of equity capital.
Now would not the approach be to test & find the actual effectiveness of these MM / RM on Random Entry basis ONLY.
Hence before all these our effort should be to find that Price Level,Impossible task ,OK then let us find out a way to overcome this,like Break Out ,Pivot etc.
Why Jesse was trying HH & LL , Saint on Pivot , we are breaking our head on lenghty discussion of Stop Loss & its module.
.............
another gem of post from asishda
I dont have to go as far as CV. The Buddha (not old as in buddha, but the enlightened one 
) would ask you a simple question - are you simulating to forecast (as in patriot missiles hitting) or doing backtest? Backtest involves data and events that have already occurred. If you ise the same parameters 100s of times, you'll get the same results. Anyone can now say how many patriots had hit the targets...and the answers will be the same. So if you had obtained 78% using correct parameters-algorithm combination, it *will remain* 78% unless you change one of them.
If you are talking of forecasting, noone will do it accurately as conditions keep changing. You can oly talk about scenarios.
Anyways, going back to the bodhi( forgot, the banyan tree, will be named bodhi tree after my enlightenment!!) tree now.
) would ask you a simple question - are you simulating to forecast (as in patriot missiles hitting) or doing backtest? Backtest involves data and events that have already occurred. If you ise the same parameters 100s of times, you'll get the same results. Anyone can now say how many patriots had hit the targets...and the answers will be the same. So if you had obtained 78% using correct parameters-algorithm combination, it *will remain* 78% unless you change one of them.If you are talking of forecasting, noone will do it accurately as conditions keep changing. You can oly talk about scenarios.
Anyways, going back to the bodhi( forgot, the banyan tree, will be named bodhi tree after my enlightenment!!) tree now.
| Thread starter | Similar threads | Forum | Replies | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M | Dodging After-effects of Corporate Actions | Data Feeds | 2 | |
| P | What is Haircut? How It Work? What is its effects? | Introductions | 4 | |
|
American Shutdown Effects | Forex | 2 | |
| F | Are "calendar effects" for real? | Equities | 0 | |
| T | Ex-rights - CUB. Effects on Shareholders??? | Equities | 0 |