Experiments in Technical Analysis
- Thread starter karthikmarar
- Start date
Dear Forum Members contributing to this thread,
Am in the learning stage. I request assistance from you to understand how the open interest and the futures affect/help the prediction for the likely direction of a stock's movement. I am basically referring to the analysis regarding trading in stocks only, not in futures or options. Would be grateful for ideas on the subject.
Regards,
Am in the learning stage. I request assistance from you to understand how the open interest and the futures affect/help the prediction for the likely direction of a stock's movement. I am basically referring to the analysis regarding trading in stocks only, not in futures or options. Would be grateful for ideas on the subject.
Regards,
karthik sir,
please do believe me!
i am a damn hardcore fan of yours.......and the most impressive about u thing is that u are doing such a fine job by making newbies like me to understand things so beautifully......i keep reading yr threads.......
i just wanna a tell u one thing...........u r a gem of a person....coz .......in todays world there are a very few persons who believe in sharing!
never ever get dishearten when a few criticize your post.......just remember......100 of them wont affect coz........u have 1000 of appreciators like me....so the equation for u stands as
karthik sir = criticizers < appreciators
sir, i m not great inventor or writer like u.......i have one small inspirational story to dedicate u as against the valuable time and pains u must have taken to create those afl's for u......this story was posted 2day on our forum by milind857....i hope milind won't mind me re-posting it here! the story goes like this :-
Never give up on yourself or others!!
One day I decided to quit...I quit my job, my relationship,my spirituality... I wanted to quit my life.
I went to the woods to have one last talk with GOD.
"GOD", I said. "Can you give me one good
reason not to quit?"
His answer surprised me... "Look around", He said.
"Do you see the fern and the bamboo?"
"Yes", I replied.
"When I planted the fern and the bamboo seeds, I took
very good care of them. I gave them light.
I gave them water. The fern quickly grew from the earth.
Its brilliant green covered the floor.
Yet nothing came from the bamboo seed.
But I did not quit on the bamboo.
In the second year the Fern grew more
vibrant and plentiful.
And again, nothing came from the bamboo seed.
But I did not quit on the bamboo."
He said. "In year three there was still nothing from
the bamboo seed. But I would not quit.
In year four, again, there was nothing from the
bamboo seed. I would not quit." He said.
"Then in the fifth year a tiny sprout emerged
from the earth. Compared to the fern it was
seemingly small and insignificant.........
But just 6 months later the bamboo rose to over
100 feet tall. It had spent the five years growing roots.
Those roots made it strong and gave it what
it needed to survive.
I would not give any of my creations a challenge
it could not handle."
He said to me. "Did you know, my child, that all this time
you have been struggling, you have actually been growing roots?"
"I would not quit on the bamboo. I will never quit on you."
"Don't compare yourself to others."
He said. "The bamboo had a different purpose
than the fern. Yet they both make the forest beautiful."
"Your time will come", GOD said to me. "You will rise high"
"How high should I rise?" I asked.
"How high will the bamboo rise?" He asked in return.
"As high as it can?" I questioned.
"Yes." He said, "Give me glory by rising as high as you can."
I left the forest and brought back this story.
Reply With Quote
lots of wishes and regards
pratus
please do believe me!
i am a damn hardcore fan of yours.......and the most impressive about u thing is that u are doing such a fine job by making newbies like me to understand things so beautifully......i keep reading yr threads.......
i just wanna a tell u one thing...........u r a gem of a person....coz .......in todays world there are a very few persons who believe in sharing!
never ever get dishearten when a few criticize your post.......just remember......100 of them wont affect coz........u have 1000 of appreciators like me....so the equation for u stands as
karthik sir = criticizers < appreciators
sir, i m not great inventor or writer like u.......i have one small inspirational story to dedicate u as against the valuable time and pains u must have taken to create those afl's for u......this story was posted 2day on our forum by milind857....i hope milind won't mind me re-posting it here! the story goes like this :-
Never give up on yourself or others!!
One day I decided to quit...I quit my job, my relationship,my spirituality... I wanted to quit my life.
I went to the woods to have one last talk with GOD.
"GOD", I said. "Can you give me one good
reason not to quit?"
His answer surprised me... "Look around", He said.
"Do you see the fern and the bamboo?"
"Yes", I replied.
"When I planted the fern and the bamboo seeds, I took
very good care of them. I gave them light.
I gave them water. The fern quickly grew from the earth.
Its brilliant green covered the floor.
Yet nothing came from the bamboo seed.
But I did not quit on the bamboo.
In the second year the Fern grew more
vibrant and plentiful.
And again, nothing came from the bamboo seed.
But I did not quit on the bamboo."
He said. "In year three there was still nothing from
the bamboo seed. But I would not quit.
In year four, again, there was nothing from the
bamboo seed. I would not quit." He said.
"Then in the fifth year a tiny sprout emerged
from the earth. Compared to the fern it was
seemingly small and insignificant.........
But just 6 months later the bamboo rose to over
100 feet tall. It had spent the five years growing roots.
Those roots made it strong and gave it what
it needed to survive.
I would not give any of my creations a challenge
it could not handle."
He said to me. "Did you know, my child, that all this time
you have been struggling, you have actually been growing roots?"
"I would not quit on the bamboo. I will never quit on you."
"Don't compare yourself to others."
He said. "The bamboo had a different purpose
than the fern. Yet they both make the forest beautiful."
"Your time will come", GOD said to me. "You will rise high"
"How high should I rise?" I asked.
"How high will the bamboo rise?" He asked in return.
"As high as it can?" I questioned.
"Yes." He said, "Give me glory by rising as high as you can."
I left the forest and brought back this story.
Reply With Quote
lots of wishes and regards
pratus
Hi Friends
It has been a long time since I actively participated in the forum. The forum does look a lot different now. Tipsters are aplenty and we even have daily horoscopes. Looks like what is lacking is an agony aunt to answer personal problems
I was a little confused on whether there would be any point in continuing this thread. Anyway a little stuff for those who still believes in conventional TA.
Let us keep aside trading systems for a while and look at some indicators. First let me remind you that all my work is aimed towards positional trades and may not be applicable to other types of trades.
The most difficult question for trend followers is whether the stock is trending or ranging. We try to use many indicators like the ADX to judge whether the stock is trending or ranging. Let us try to add one more to our arsenal of Indicators.
We will use a statistical formula commonly known as the z score. The z score indicates how many standard deviation a data is above or below the mean value. In terms of stock prices the z score would indicate how many standard deviation a days price is above or below a the average price. The z score is calculated by dividing the difference between the close and average by the standard deviation of the close itself.
When a stock is trending up the z score is increasing and generally is above one standard deviations from the average. During a downtrend the z score will be below one standard deviations from the average. In a ranging market the z score would be between +1 and –1 standard deviation.
The z score normalizes the prices over a period. We will select three months as the period for normalization.( 60 days assuming 20 trading days per month)
So the z score formula would be C-MA(C,60)/ Stddev(C,60).
Of course, we have to christen this Indicator. I prefer to call it Normalized Price Oscillator or NPO.
We will plot the NPO with lines corresponding 1, 2 and 3 standard deviation. You will notice that during up trends the NPO is generally above the +1 line and in a downtrend the NPO is generally below the –1 line. During a ranging market the NPO wanders between the +1 and –1 line. Strong trends are indicated when the NPO is above or below the two standard deviation lines. I am enclosing a chart of the NPO. More on this later.
warm regards
Karthik
It has been a long time since I actively participated in the forum. The forum does look a lot different now. Tipsters are aplenty and we even have daily horoscopes. Looks like what is lacking is an agony aunt to answer personal problems
I was a little confused on whether there would be any point in continuing this thread. Anyway a little stuff for those who still believes in conventional TA.
Let us keep aside trading systems for a while and look at some indicators. First let me remind you that all my work is aimed towards positional trades and may not be applicable to other types of trades.
The most difficult question for trend followers is whether the stock is trending or ranging. We try to use many indicators like the ADX to judge whether the stock is trending or ranging. Let us try to add one more to our arsenal of Indicators.
We will use a statistical formula commonly known as the z score. The z score indicates how many standard deviation a data is above or below the mean value. In terms of stock prices the z score would indicate how many standard deviation a days price is above or below a the average price. The z score is calculated by dividing the difference between the close and average by the standard deviation of the close itself.
When a stock is trending up the z score is increasing and generally is above one standard deviations from the average. During a downtrend the z score will be below one standard deviations from the average. In a ranging market the z score would be between +1 and –1 standard deviation.
The z score normalizes the prices over a period. We will select three months as the period for normalization.( 60 days assuming 20 trading days per month)
So the z score formula would be C-MA(C,60)/ Stddev(C,60).
Of course, we have to christen this Indicator. I prefer to call it Normalized Price Oscillator or NPO.
We will plot the NPO with lines corresponding 1, 2 and 3 standard deviation. You will notice that during up trends the NPO is generally above the +1 line and in a downtrend the NPO is generally below the –1 line. During a ranging market the NPO wanders between the +1 and –1 line. Strong trends are indicated when the NPO is above or below the two standard deviation lines. I am enclosing a chart of the NPO. More on this later.
warm regards
Karthik
Last edited:
Hi Friends
It has been a long time since I actively participated in the forum. The forum does look a lot different now. Tipsters are aplenty and we even have daily horoscopes. Looks like what is lacking is an agony aunt to answer personal problems
I was a little confused on whether there would be any point in continuing this thread. Anyway a little stuff for those who still believes in conventional TA.
Let us keep aside trading systems for a while and look at some indicators. First let me remind you that all my work is aimed towards positional trades and may not be applicable to other types of trades.
The most difficult question for trend followers is whether the stock is trending or ranging. We try to use many indicators like the ADX to judge whether the stock is trending or ranging. Let us try to add one more to our arsenal of Indicators.
We will use a statistical formula commonly known as the z score. The z score indicates how many standard deviation a data is above or below the mean value. In terms of stock prices the z score would indicate how many standard deviation a days price is above or below a the average price. The z score is calculated by dividing the difference between the close and average by the standard deviation of the close itself.
When a stock is trending up the z score is increasing and generally is above one standard deviations from the average. During a downtrend the z score will be below one standard deviations from the average. In a ranging market the z score would be between +1 and 1 standard deviation.
The z score normalizes the prices over a period. We will select three months as the period for normalization.( 60 days assuming 20 trading days per month)
So the z score formula would be C-MA(C,60)/ Stddev(C,60).
Of course, we have to christen this Indicator. I prefer to call it Normalized Price Oscillator or NPO.
We will plot the NPO with lines corresponding 1, 2 and 3 standard deviation. You will notice that during up trends the NPO is generally above the +1 line and in a downtrend the NPO is generally below the 1 line. During a ranging market the NPO wanders between the +1 and 1 line. Strong trends are indicated when the NPO is above or below the two standard deviation lines. I am enclosing a chart of the NPO. More on this later.
warm regards
Karthik
It has been a long time since I actively participated in the forum. The forum does look a lot different now. Tipsters are aplenty and we even have daily horoscopes. Looks like what is lacking is an agony aunt to answer personal problems
I was a little confused on whether there would be any point in continuing this thread. Anyway a little stuff for those who still believes in conventional TA.
Let us keep aside trading systems for a while and look at some indicators. First let me remind you that all my work is aimed towards positional trades and may not be applicable to other types of trades.
The most difficult question for trend followers is whether the stock is trending or ranging. We try to use many indicators like the ADX to judge whether the stock is trending or ranging. Let us try to add one more to our arsenal of Indicators.
We will use a statistical formula commonly known as the z score. The z score indicates how many standard deviation a data is above or below the mean value. In terms of stock prices the z score would indicate how many standard deviation a days price is above or below a the average price. The z score is calculated by dividing the difference between the close and average by the standard deviation of the close itself.
When a stock is trending up the z score is increasing and generally is above one standard deviations from the average. During a downtrend the z score will be below one standard deviations from the average. In a ranging market the z score would be between +1 and 1 standard deviation.
The z score normalizes the prices over a period. We will select three months as the period for normalization.( 60 days assuming 20 trading days per month)
So the z score formula would be C-MA(C,60)/ Stddev(C,60).
Of course, we have to christen this Indicator. I prefer to call it Normalized Price Oscillator or NPO.
We will plot the NPO with lines corresponding 1, 2 and 3 standard deviation. You will notice that during up trends the NPO is generally above the +1 line and in a downtrend the NPO is generally below the 1 line. During a ranging market the NPO wanders between the +1 and 1 line. Strong trends are indicated when the NPO is above or below the two standard deviation lines. I am enclosing a chart of the NPO. More on this later.
warm regards
Karthik
Is it AB? If so can we get the afl for this?
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