Hi karthik sir...was waiting for ur reply more eagerly..haha..Thats just perfect..yes, If u go by saint sirs flow method..thats the perfect thin to stay profitable is the eyeball...Atleat 10 - 15 points make a differnce...But karthink sir..i feel for newbies who are still learning the flow method, the codes would be great..even thought they dont match perfectly..i feel atleast we can have an idea of what to do next...Both of ul are pillars of this forum..ofcourse including many others...a perfect combination...Thanks for both of ul for ur dedication and inputs...
Experiments in Technical Analysis
- Thread starter karthikmarar
- Start date
Ah.. My Friend Saint.
My post has served the purpose .....by pulling you out of your indefinite break
The Flow system can be done perfectly only by eyeballing the chart. No afl or coding can match that. The afl can serve the purpose of some guidance only if at all.
In coding we can different methods for calculating the pivots. the chart enclosed uses zig zag. We can also use a five finger method or even a three finger method. Each gives varying results. Also the Gap rule cannot be applied here... at least in AB. Also the add positions were delayed by a bar as i saw many adds happened towards the end of a move. Just experimenting
Again as I said before was not trying to prove anything. Just curiosity... as per my initial studies thought it could be a comparable system.
Nice to see you posting .. :thanx:
regards
Karthik
My post has served the purpose .....by pulling you out of your indefinite break
The Flow system can be done perfectly only by eyeballing the chart. No afl or coding can match that. The afl can serve the purpose of some guidance only if at all.
In coding we can different methods for calculating the pivots. the chart enclosed uses zig zag. We can also use a five finger method or even a three finger method. Each gives varying results. Also the Gap rule cannot be applied here... at least in AB. Also the add positions were delayed by a bar as i saw many adds happened towards the end of a move. Just experimenting
Again as I said before was not trying to prove anything. Just curiosity... as per my initial studies thought it could be a comparable system.
Nice to see you posting .. :thanx:
regards
Karthik
:cheers:
Saint
I have noticed here and in many forums, Indian and foreign, that traders who have software code writing skills have attempted to code many methods into a program and have tried to build in as many factors as possible of the price movement in their programs in a bid to mechanise the method. But as market is moved by humans and their perceived impression of the price, this attempt invariably gives results which are not satisfactory.
So instead, effort should be on devising a method on parameters which are easy to master and see (the logical and scientific part) and to develop skills like visual recognition of patterns (the art part) which will take care of the nuances of the price action which cannot be fully codified ever. This combination should work well.
The skill part -- the human intervention part --- is probably the most important part in trading -- and that is the area which should be concentrated on in our quest for perfection in trading. Dependence on mechanical indicators and systems/methods only will lead to disastrous results.
Codification and mechanical system devising have only academic relevance to a serious trader who has to develop skills as explained above.
Saint's above post depicting the various trades and their entry levels can only be done after developing those skills.
Bee
So instead, effort should be on devising a method on parameters which are easy to master and see (the logical and scientific part) and to develop skills like visual recognition of patterns (the art part) which will take care of the nuances of the price action which cannot be fully codified ever. This combination should work well.
The skill part -- the human intervention part --- is probably the most important part in trading -- and that is the area which should be concentrated on in our quest for perfection in trading. Dependence on mechanical indicators and systems/methods only will lead to disastrous results.
Codification and mechanical system devising have only academic relevance to a serious trader who has to develop skills as explained above.
Saint's above post depicting the various trades and their entry levels can only be done after developing those skills.
Bee
Like any other subjects Trading has many different schools of thought. Each has its own perceptions of things. There is no Holy Grail system here.
The most important thing is to make money in the market. One can make money with a simple MACD. Why MACD with proper money management one can make money by entering with a toss of coin. (Search this thread and you would find a nice little calculation to show this)
Another important thing is that one should be able trade on their own without dependence on others for levels, entry points and exit points.
Any Trading system whether visual or mechanical or automated has its plus points and minus points. All strategies like patterns or VSA or MP have advantages and disadvantages. To claim ones method is only workable and others as only academic relevance is only natural but it is also naive.
A traders journey is a long one. It takes time and effort to become a mature trader. Most learn the hard way going through many steps. Indicators and mechanical systems are streets one walks through in this journey. There are no short cuts here.
The most important thing is to make money in the market. One can make money with a simple MACD. Why MACD with proper money management one can make money by entering with a toss of coin. (Search this thread and you would find a nice little calculation to show this)
Another important thing is that one should be able trade on their own without dependence on others for levels, entry points and exit points.
Any Trading system whether visual or mechanical or automated has its plus points and minus points. All strategies like patterns or VSA or MP have advantages and disadvantages. To claim ones method is only workable and others as only academic relevance is only natural but it is also naive.
A traders journey is a long one. It takes time and effort to become a mature trader. Most learn the hard way going through many steps. Indicators and mechanical systems are streets one walks through in this journey. There are no short cuts here.
Another of those based on Range.
The original concept of SR based system was inspired by Saint's work but the code is based on the system posted by Karthik.
The example above is one of the ideal cases, we do get lots of wips.
You can see from both the charts that use of the buffer / filter or room make a big difference in getting right reversals and avoiding wipsaws.
Also the moneny management lesson of the flow method have been an eye opener for me, the adds will make all the difference, I have incorporated the filter concept buy yet to fully get the adds in.
I have posted a question to Karthik earlier on this thread, if you do find some time plz get back on that.
How to optimize a system/method to get a smoother equity curve? If you want I will upload examples / test runs based on the system you have shared on your blog (also posted here at later date). If that helps I can also ask you specific questions based on those backtests.
Regards
PK
The original concept of SR based system was inspired by Saint's work but the code is based on the system posted by Karthik.
Range based SRs
Saint Flow
(no adds, no gaps, no wrbs or BO failures, no lots of other things)
(no adds, no gaps, no wrbs or BO failures, no lots of other things)
The example above is one of the ideal cases, we do get lots of wips.
You can see from both the charts that use of the buffer / filter or room make a big difference in getting right reversals and avoiding wipsaws.
Also the moneny management lesson of the flow method have been an eye opener for me, the adds will make all the difference, I have incorporated the filter concept buy yet to fully get the adds in.
I have posted a question to Karthik earlier on this thread, if you do find some time plz get back on that.
How to optimize a system/method to get a smoother equity curve? If you want I will upload examples / test runs based on the system you have shared on your blog (also posted here at later date). If that helps I can also ask you specific questions based on those backtests.
Regards
PK
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Hi Pk
Excellent. Nice to see that you are experimenting and learning.. :clapping:
To be frank I am not a real fan of back Testing. I always get confused when I do a back test. When I run the back test on nifty stocks i would get acceptable results. When I run it on Midcaps the results would be pathetic. Even on testing in nifty particular stocks would come out big winners. I have played around with different setting and come out more confused. Hence I am not the correct person to advise on equity curve smoothing.
In my opinion over optimization generally produces a very smooth equity curve. This sort of curve fitted equity curve would look nice but necessarily produce results in real time. Other methods I have come across for smoothing the equity curve are adjusting the position sizing and increased trade frequency. You can play with position sizing and see.
Another important thing to see in the results of back testing is the distribution of profit. I mean a large number of stocks making decent profits is much better than a few stocks making huge profits while the remaining lot ends up loss. I trading system which is more consistent on large of stocks is any day better.
Using a walk forward optimization is always better. I think this is available in the latest version of AB.
Please do post the results / test of the system posted by me and also your question. We can learn a lot from that.
warm regards
Karthik
Excellent. Nice to see that you are experimenting and learning.. :clapping:
To be frank I am not a real fan of back Testing. I always get confused when I do a back test. When I run the back test on nifty stocks i would get acceptable results. When I run it on Midcaps the results would be pathetic. Even on testing in nifty particular stocks would come out big winners. I have played around with different setting and come out more confused. Hence I am not the correct person to advise on equity curve smoothing.
In my opinion over optimization generally produces a very smooth equity curve. This sort of curve fitted equity curve would look nice but necessarily produce results in real time. Other methods I have come across for smoothing the equity curve are adjusting the position sizing and increased trade frequency. You can play with position sizing and see.
Another important thing to see in the results of back testing is the distribution of profit. I mean a large number of stocks making decent profits is much better than a few stocks making huge profits while the remaining lot ends up loss. I trading system which is more consistent on large of stocks is any day better.
Using a walk forward optimization is always better. I think this is available in the latest version of AB.
Please do post the results / test of the system posted by me and also your question. We can learn a lot from that.
warm regards
Karthik
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