Forexyard.com analysis - USD Weakens and World Economies Strengthen?

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Forexyard.com analysis - Dollar Plunges and then Reverses Full Steam

The EUR/USD saw extremely high price volatility yesterday. When the pair reached its intra day high which coincided with the opening the New York trading session, it depreciated to its opening price for the day. Driving the appreciation for the Dollar was heavy losses in U.S. equity markets.

Economic News

USD - Dollar Volatility continues as Dow Hits 6-Year Low

The Dollar recorded another day of volatile trading on Thursday, as the U.S. equity market took a beating. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a six year low yesterday. One of the main reasons for this was the U.S. banking shares hitting a 17 year low. The shares of banks, such as Bank of America and Citigroup slid by 14% respectively. Equity markets can be used to measure the amount of risk in currency markets. This was reflected in yesterday's trading of the USD.


Throughout the Japanese and European trading sessions, the EUR/USD steadily appreciated, touching on a high of 1.2759. But as the New York markets opened, the pair began a sharp reversal, ending the day near close to its opening level of 1.2591.


The Dollar also closed up vs. the Pound from 1.4269 to 1.4214. Britain's currency is still very sensitive to developments in the U.S. This was also helped by a recorded swell in Britain's money supply earlier today, and an increase in the U.S. PPI. Both of these therefore helped support the greenback. Against the JPY, the Dollar rose over 65 pips to close at 94.10 as investors continue to back the greenback's safe-haven status vs. the JPY.


Traders are advised to pay close attention to Core U.S. CPI figures that are set to be published at 13:30 later today. The results of this may help keep the Dollar's strength going into next week's trading. It is also advisable to follow how Obama's meeting with President Harper of Canada is displayed in the media prior to the opening of U.S. markets. The reason why this is important is because Obama spoke about his opposition of protectionism, contradicting his campaign remarks. Therefore, the Dollar may go bullish as investors realize he is even more of a capitalist than his Republican predecessor.

EUR - EUR Recovers from 3-Month Low against Dollar, then Reverses

The European currency made bullish gains against its major currency pairs in yesterdays trading. The most notable event in EUR trading was the European currency's recovery against the USD as it hit a 3-month low in Wednesday's trading. The EUR's strength in early Thursday's trading was owed to a number of factors, including German Finance Minister Peter Steinbruck tough rhetoric that Germany would back emergency measures to prevent the Euro-Zone economic situation from deteriorating further.


The EUR rose significantly but then reversed by nearly 160 pips against the USD to close at 1.2591. This was also helped by the Dow and U.S. banking stocks hitting lows not seen in over 6 years. The Pound lost over 60 pips against the EUR in yesterday's trading to close at the 0.8858 mark. Some of this may be owed to Britain's sensitivity to America's weak banking sector. Against the JPY, the EUR rose by nearly 100 pips to close at 118.52. This comes about as Japanese equities declined and Japanese exporters reported that they may be shipping jobs abroad.


Today, there are many news events coming out of the Euro-Zone and Britain. From the Euro-Zone, investors are advised to follow the release of the Flash Services PMI and the Flash Manufacturing PMI figures set to be released at 9.00 GMT. Britain is set to release Retail Sales figures at 9.30 GMT. The results of these data releases may set the pace for the EUR and Pound going into the beginning of next week's trading.

JPY - JPY Safe-Haven Status Comes under Threat

The JPY's safe-haven status came under threat again yesterday, as Japan's economy has become increasingly volatile to the global recession. Japanese equities slid yesterday as exporters reported more bad news owing to the strong Yen. Japanese carmaker Nissan said that it may export 130,000 jobs to Mexico. Additionally, the Yen also reacted negatively to the U.S. Stock Market dive, leading the Nikkei to dive 1.2% too. In the last few days of trading the Dollar has made some big gains against the JPY. This is mainly due to the fact that investors and forex traders are of the view that the Dollar will be the number 1 safe-haven currency during the current global recession.


The JPY dived against the Dollar by 60 pips to close at 94.10. The Yen lost over 100 pips vs. the EUR, marking its second straight loss against the European currency. Against the GBP, the JPY lost over 60 pips to close at 133.97. There is a possibility that the Yen's behavior against its major currency counterparts in recent days may be partly owed to a correction in the value of the Yen. Therefore, this may not be as bad as it first seems. If things continue like this, however, then the Yen may help Japan's economy recover quicker out of recession. Today, forex traders are advised to follow events coming out of Japan, the Euro-Zone, and the U.S., as these may help set a price level for the Yen against its major currency crosses going into the middle of next week.

OIL - Crude Oil Spikes on Better Inventory Data

Oil prices went to as high as $40.23 in yesterdays trading. However, by the close of trading the black gold was trading near $39.466, holding gains of nearly $2 from Wednesday's closes. One of the main factors contributing to Oil's gains was the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Data. Crude stocks declined by 0.2 million barrels last week. Analysts had forecasted a rise in inventories by 2.9 billion. The other 2 factors that may have played in to Crude's strength on Thursday were the Dollar's weakness in early trading and a possible price correction in the black gold.


Crude prices may extend their gains today as investors may perhaps pursue take profits. This volatility of Oil in today's trading is strongly dependent on Euro-Zone and U.S. data releases. Also, Crude may go bullish if investors feel that President Obama can handle the complex U.S. recession. The highest that Oil prices could reach by the end of today's trading may be $41.00. If prices do hit this mark, they are likely to drop very quickly below $39 a barrel, as there is not enough confidence and physical demand to uphold this price level.

Technical News

EUR/USD
The Daily chart's showing that the pair is still in bearish configuration. However, a bullish cross on hourly chart's Slow Stochastic implies that an upwards correction might take place in the nearest time frame. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

GBP/USD
Narrow range trading continues as the pair did not make a significant move in either direction, and is currently traded around the 1.4220 level. The hourly chart's Slow Stochastic is showing a fresh bullish cross suggesting that upwards correction might take place in the nearest time frame. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

USD/JPY
The bullish trend is loosing its steam and the pair seems to consolidate around the 94.15 level. The daily chart's RSI is already floating in an overbought territory suggesting that a recent upwards trend is loosing steam and a bearish correction is impending. Going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

USD/CHF
The hourly chart is showing mixed signals with its Slow Stochastic fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, the hourly chart's RSI is already floating in the overbought territory indicating that a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. When the downwards breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

The Wild Card

Gold
Gold prices rose significantly in the last month and peaked at $975 for an ounce. However, daily chart's RSI is floating in an overbought territory suggesting that a recent upwards trend is loosing steam and a bearish correction is impending. This might be a good opportunity for forex traders to enter the trend at a very early stage.

 

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Forexyard.com analysis - High Price Volatile looks to Continue for the Second Week

Trading this past week of the EUR/USD was characterized by larger than normal price changes with the pair falling to a key support level and then dramatically rising. Traders this week are looking to gain from the continued bullishness in the pair amid tense market conditions that could continue through the middle of the week.

Economic News

USD - Mixed Signals coming from the U.S Economy are affecting the USD

Last week was an extremely volatile trading session for the greenback. The Dollar first depreciated against most of the major currencies, however just before the week ended, the USD saw bullish trends at all fronts, driving it back to former levels vs. the majors.

One reason that could explain the vexed trading is the contradicting economic publications that took place this week. On one hand the housing sector and the employment condition aren't giving even the slightest clue that the economy is stabilizing. The Building Permits indicator dropped to merely 0.52M new residential building permits issued during January, and the Housing Starts indicator showed that only 0.47M new residential buildings began construction during January. Just to help you understand the severity of these figures, during June 2008, 1.09M new permits were issued, and 1.07M new buildings began construction. In addition, the weekly Unemployment Claims reveled that once again, over 600K people have filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. However, on the other hand, it seems that the price of goods and services in the U.S. is stabilizing. The Producer Price Index gave a surprising positive result, reflected in 0.8% rise in prices during January, and the Consumer Price Index rose as well, by 0.3%. The fact that producers are willing charge more, and that consumers are willing to pay more is one of the best signals to detect that the economy is getting healthier. However, one good month does not prove anything, and next few months will tell if the Obama administration is succeeding in stopping the financial crisis.

Looking ahead to this week, the most crucial publication could be on Friday when the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product for December will be announced and is forecasted by analysts to deliver a rather disturbing figure; it is predicted to decline by 5.4%. Such a result could lead to an angry trading day, just before the week ends. Until then, the Housing Sector indicator and the weekly Unemployment Claims should play the leading role in this week's fundamental publications. Make sure you'll watch closely after each of them if you want to make the biggest profits possible from this week.

EUR - EUR/USD Aims to Breach a Significant Resistance Price Level

The European currency underwent a jumpy weekly session. With the beginning of the trading week, the EUR strengthened against all the major currencies, however a batch of unfortunate publications has eliminated most of it. During last night, the EUR appreciated sharply against the Dollar and the EUR/USD is currently testing the 1.30 level.


Last week took off with an extremely surprising indication as the German Economic Sentiment dropped by 5.8 points, beating expectations for a 26.5 slide. Although the figure was still negative, it significantly better than expected and managed to spark a strong bullish trend for the EUR. However, by the end of the week both the French and the German economies have delivered some disturbing data. The French Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 35.4 marks, failing to reach expectations for a 38.0. The German Services PMI declined to 41.6, well beneath expectations for a 45.0 mark.


As for this week, the most significant data expected from the Euro-Zone is the German Business Climate, published by the Institute for Economic Research. This indicator tends to have a massive impact on the market, and is expected to give an 83.2 mark. This forecast is well under the levels seen only few months ago, which were always above 100. Such result will probably support the current bearish trend of the EUR.


Other data to look after this week are the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI), the German Unemployment Change, and the European Core CPI. All are expected to deliver relatively positive result, which could very much initiate an uptrend for the EUR before the week ends.

JPY - Yen May Continue to Depreciate in the Long-Term

Last week the Yen continued to weaken against the major currencies. Its sharpest drop was against the EUR; however it saw bearish trends against the Dollar and the Pound as well.

Last week was filled with significant data economic data from Japan. The Japanese Preliminary Gross Domestic Product dropped by 3.3%. The contraction was the third quarter in a row of negative economic growth. This is the broadest measure of economic activity and as long as it continues to deliver negative figures, the JPY will most likely depreciate further. As expected, the Bank of Japan ruled to keep the Interest Rate at 0.10% - the lowest rate in the western world. It seems that the Japanese leaders will do anything they can to prevent the JPY from strengthening further. Traders should consider using this opportunity to open long-term short position on the JPY.

In the meantime, on Tuesday night the Japanese Trade Balance is expected to slide to -0.49T. The Japanese economy is largely dependant on its exports and such result is devastating for it. If this figure is accurate the Yen could drop sharply as a result. Also interesting will be the Japanese Retail sales and the Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index that will be published on Thursday night, and traders are advised to follow them.

OIL - Stock Markets Trends Dictate Crude Oil Prices

Crude Oil is continuing to trade around $40 a barrel. It appears that investors have correlated their investment on Crude Oil with the leading global stock markets. As long as the leading economies will continue to deliver worrying news that will damage equity markets, Crude Oil will probably retain its low price level.

In addition, Oil consumption predictions for this year are decreasing over and over again in light of the deepening global recession, and rumors that OPEC will decide to make another production cut has been circling once again.

This week traders should follow very carefully after data from the leading stock markets as they have proved to dictate Crude Oil prices lately.

Technical News

EUR/USD
The pair is in the midst of a very strong bullish trend, as it has just breached through the 1.2900 level. After a few failing attempts to test the 1.2940 level, the pair seems ready now to cross another psychological boundary. Should the breach occur, the pair will most likely see further bullish behavior

GBP/USD
The pair gained almost 150 pips since the weekend, and is now traded around the 1.4600 level. The bullish momentum was originated at the lower border of the Bollinger Bands, meaning that there is still more room left for this trend. Going long seems to be a good choice today.

USD/JPY
The 4 hour chart is showing that the pair's bullish momentum is reversing itself, and has turned to be bearish. The bearish cross on the daily Slow Stochastic strengthens the pair's downtrend, which might see a valid target price at 92.49.

USD/CHF
Ever since the pair reached its peak of over 1.1850, it's been showing bearish momentum exclusively. As all oscillators on the hourly chart are providing bearish signals, a breach through the 1.1400 level will probably validate another downwards move, with the new possible target price of 1.1300.

The Wild Card

GOLD
Gold is in the midst of a very strong bullish move, as indicators are pointing up on the daily and the 4 hour chart. The Slow Stochastic on the hourly chart also points towards a current bullish momentum. In addition, there is a very distinct bullish channel forming on the daily chart, which strongly supports this bullish notion. This might be a great opportunity for forex traders to join a very promising bullish trend.

 

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Forexyard.com analysis - Will the USD be Hurt by Falling Consumer Confidence?

With stocks dropping to record lows, currencies fluctuating in irregular patterns, and the price of Crude Oil continuing its free fall, it seems unlikely that consumer confidence will begin to rise in the near future. With the CB Consumer Confidence Report expected later today, traders should anticipate a negative release and price this in to the value of the USD.

Economic News

USD - Dollar Rises as Wall Street Tumbles

The Dollar rose against its main currency pairs in yesterday's trading while Wall Street recorded some big losses. The Dow Jones dived by a massive 250 points, reaching a 12-year low. This came about after federal authorities released information about the possibility of taking stakes in top U.S. banks. It is important to note that bank shares, such as those of Citigroup and Bank of America, increased as Barack Obama reassured investors that banks will remain in private hands.

The USD made large gains against the EUR as it climbed about 185 points versus the European currency to close at 1.2724. Against the JPY, the USD gained about 200 points to finish trading at 94.96. The USD, however, lost 31 points against the GBP to close at 1.4547.

One reason for the Dollar's gains was due to investors viewing the currency as a safe-haven. This is likely to continue in the coming months as the recession continues to destabilize the global economy. The JPY and EUR weakness against the Dollar yesterday can be explained by pointing to negative data coming from these 2 regional markets. Also, the JPY is starting to be considered as less of a safe-haven than the USD. Furthermore, European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet spoke about the intensification and severity of the recession as it hit all sectors of the Euro-Zone economy in recent weeks.

Looking ahead to today, the 2 main news events coming out of the U.S. are the release of U.S. CB Consumer Confidence figures. This will be important in determining the Dollar's value later in today's trading. It is important to take into account, as we have seen of late, even if the news from the U.S. is negative, it may even help lead to Dollar bullishness as investors continue to seek the safe-haven U.S. currency in the current recession.

EUR - European Currency Declines on Deepening Recession

The EUR declined as fears about an accelerating recession in the Euro-Zone took its toll in Monday's trading. The EUR recorded losses against most of its currency pairs, which was also compounded by Wall Street's record drop yesterday. The European currency's trading in recent weeks has been increasingly volatile, as the economic situation continues to dampen the Euro-Zone economy.

The main factor leading to a bearish EUR yesterday was European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet detailing more how hard-hit the Euro-Zone has been since the start of the recession, indicating that the ECB is likely to cut Interest Rates further in March. The EUR fell by a staggering 140 points against the GBP to 0.8739. The EUR/USD pair finished yesterday's trading down by nearly 185 points at 1.2724. However, against the JPY, the EUR closed up 90 points at 120.85.

Today, there will be a lot of news coming out of the Euro-Zone. The German Ifo Business Climate and Current Account figures are expected to be released at 9:00 GMT. Better-than-expected results may lead to a bullish EUR through the end of today's trading sessions.

JPY - Yen Declines against Dollar and EUR

The Yen recorded losses against all of its major currency crosses in yesterdays trading. This came about for several reasons. Primarily among them is that Japan's economy continues to decline at an alarming rate as the global recession continues to take its toll. The Yen declined by 200 points against the USD to finish Monday's trading at 94.96. Against the EUR it also lost 90 points to close at 120.85.

A few economic data releases are expected to be released from Japan later today. At 23:50 GMT there is the release of Japanese Trade Balance figures. This is likely to have an impact on the JPY in late trading. However, before this release there is likely to be a lot of action in the currency market. This is likely to be led by political and economic developments coming out of the U.S., Britain, and the Euro-Zone. If things continue in the same pattern for the JPY, then the USD/JPY currency cross may exceed 96.00 in tomorrow's trading. Additionally, if Japan shows more negative economic data in the coming week, then it is likely to sink to new lows against its major currency pairs.

Oil - Oil Tumbles on Falling Demand

The price of Crude Oil tumbled $2.31 to $38.01 a barrel in yesterday's trading, as OPEC foresaw demand falling faster than the cartel's production cuts. OPEC has cut its oil production by several million barrels a day since September, and is expected to cut further when they meet again in March. One of the main issues that is affecting Oil's volatility is the U.S. economy. It seems that the only way for Oil to make a mini-recovery is if the U.S. shows that it is resilient when it comes to the recession. However, facts on the ground seem to contradict this.

With over 500,000 Americans losing their jobs each month, the collapsing car industry, and with the closure of factories in the U.S., it seems unlikely that Oil prices will recover at all, at least in the next few weeks. This is increasingly valid as Japan, China, and the Euro-Zone are also increasingly feeling the heat of the global recession. It seems that only daily U.S. stockpile increases or a string of positive economic figures coming out of the U.S. may push-up Oil prices in the short-term. In the long-term, traders should look for a continuance of this steady price depreciation.

Technical News

EUR/USD
A bullish cross appears to be imminent on the 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic, signaling a bullish correction may take place shortly. However, a bearish cross may be forming on the hourly chart's Slow Stochastic, indicating the opposite. Weekly momentum appears to be leveling which means the pair may lack direction at the moment. Waiting for a clearer signal might be the right choice today.

GBP/USD
It appears a bearish cross is imminent on the hourly chart's Slow Stochastic, indicating a downward correction may occur soon. As the price begins to approach the over-bought territory on the 4-hour chart's RSI, the downward correction becomes more imminent. Going short with tight stops might be the right choice today.

USD/JPY
This pair has recently entered a sustained upward trend. With the Slow Stochastic on the 4-hour chart indicating a bearish cross has recently formed, and the hourly chart's Slow Stochastic signaling that one may be imminent, a downward correction may indeed be occurring in the near future. Going short with tight stops might be the preferable strategy today.

USD/CHF
After last Friday's significant drop, the pair now appears to be in a steady uptrend. With the recent bearish cross on the 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic, a downward correction may be imminent. However, most other oscillators show a lack of direction. Waiting for the correction to finish its course then buying on lows may be the right strategy today.

The Wild Card

Oil
The price of this commodity appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the hourly chart's RSI, signaling an upward correction may take place later today. There appears to be a bullish cross forming on the 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic as well, which supports this notion. Forex traders should wait for a leveling off in the price of this commodity then anticipate the upward correction to earn large profits during this imminent price movement.

 

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Forexyard.com Analysis - USD Stabilizes as Obama Proclaims America Will Recover

Addressing Congress yesterday, President Barack Obama made an effort to boost confidence in the economy by stating that America could recover and emerge from this crisis stronger than ever. His recent stimulus plan, he says, is meant to preserve or create at least 3 million jobs and increase infrastructure spending, but the amount of stimulus money will likely need to be increased in the near future. Meanwhile, the USD has been stabilizing as a result of positive news, and the anticipation of even better news expected today from the housing sector.

Economic News

USD - Dollar Fundamentals May Generate High Volatility Today

The greenback completed yesterday's trading session with mixed results versus the major currencies. The USD fell against the EUR yesterday, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 1.2866. The dollar experienced similar behavior against the CHF as the pair dropped from 116.70 to 115.80 by day's end. The USD did see some bullishness as well as it gained over 150 points against the JPY and closed at 96.70.

The most influential economic data coming from the U.S. yesterday was the consumer confidence report. Consumer confidence hit a record low in February as Americans feared an already deep recession was likely to get even worse. The impact of the financial crisis over the last several months has clearly taken a toll on consumer confidence. In assessing current conditions, consumers rated the labor market and business conditions much less favorably. President Barack Obama is trying to mend the breach in confidence with a stimulus plan that he says will save or create more than 3 million jobs, cut taxes and boost infrastructure spending.

USD trading will be interesting today as a number of important economic data is expected to be released. Similar to yesterday, the news will start at 15:00 GMT with a series of economic indicators being released starting with Existing Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories. Surprisingly, almost all of these releases are expected to be higher than their previous figures meaning the USD could show relatively high levels of bullishness today. Traders should stay close to the market as there is a strong chance to capitalize on the fluctuations which will likely follow these releases.

EUR - EUR Strengthening from Global Economic Weakness

The EUR experienced a bullish trading session yesterday, as it appreciated against most of its major currency pairs. The EUR gained about 150 points versus the USD during yesterday's trading session, and closed at 1.2866.

German business confidence slipped in February, with a grim economic situation weighing on sentiment even as a government stimulus plan helped invigorate firms' outlook for the future. The Ifo institute's monthly index declined to 82.6 points in February from 83 last month. This wiped out the slight gain made in January, which followed seven consecutive months of decline and defied economists' predictions that the index would remain static or rise slightly.

Germany's economy, Europe's biggest, went into recession last fall as the global economic crisis sapped demand for its exports. The recession deepened in the fourth quarter, when the economy shrank by 2.1%.

Looking ahead to today, the most important financial indicator scheduled to be released from Europe is Germany's Final GDP. Analysts are forecasting this figure to be unchanged from its previous reading. Traders will be paying close attention to today's announcement, as a stronger than expected result may continue to bolster the EUR.

JPY - Japanese Economy Faces Severe Depression

The Japanese Yen saw a bearish trading session yesterday, losing ground against all of its currency crosses. The JPY fell against the USD after several days of recovery, while the EUR/JPY cross also rose to around 1.2443. The only economic events out of Japan yesterday was Trade balance; a little changed from forecasts as volatility was kept to a minimum

Japan's exports plunged by a record in January, as recessions in the U.S. and Europe smothered demand for the country's cars. The government has been unable to pass a stimulus package that could help encourage domestic spending in the absence of export demand. Prime Minister Taro Aso is struggling to get approval from the opposition-led upper house to spend 10 trillion yen to aid companies and households, whose sentiment is near a record low.

There are no economic data releases expected from Japanese economy today; however there will be a nice amount of data from the U.S, which will affect the Yen's major counterparts. Traders might look for further bearishness for the JPY.

Oil - OPEC Producers asked to Lower Crude Oil Output

Crude Oil prices rose again yesterday as the U.S. stock market advanced, signaling that fuel usage in the world's biggest energy-consuming country may rebound. Moreover, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may begin to cut output by 3.8% a day in February in order to stabilize prices.

However, traders should be eyeing news of key U.S. economic indicators, including a government report on Crude Oil Inventories due today. Worries that weakened international economic growth will depress Oil demand remains a key dampening influence on Oil prices. If the global economic condition deteriorates more aggressively, Crude Oil prices may extend their decline faster than expected.

Technical News

EUR/USD
A pennant formation appears to be forming on the 4-hour and daily charts, signifying that a continuation of the recent uptrend may occur and push this pair higher in the near future. The weekly Momentum oscillator also shows the direction of this pair has begun to change course. Waiting for the breach and then placing long positions might be a wise strategy.

GBP/USD
The price appears to have just entered the over-bought territory on the hourly chart's RSI, indicating a downward correction may occur shortly. The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart also appear to be tightening in anticipation of an impending volatile price movement. Going short with tight stops might be the right choice today.

USD/JPY
The price of this pair currently floats in the over-bought territory on the RSI of the 4-hour and daily charts, signaling strong downward pressure. A bearish cross appears to have just formed on the 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic as well, supporting the notion that a downward correction is imminent. Going short might be the right choice today.

USD/CHF
This pair appears to be consolidating at the 1.1620 price level and is expected to make a breach in the near future. With recent indications of downward pressure, this pair may turn the corner in the near future and enter a downward correction. Going short with tight stops appears to be the right choice today.

The Wild Card

GBP/JPY
The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the 4-hour chart's RSI, signaling a downward correction may take place soon. The recent bearish cross on the 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic supports this notion. With a bearish cross beginning to form on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic, forex traders may be confident with the idea that a downward correction is imminent and capture profits by entering short positions now and riding out the impending movement.

 

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Forexyard.com Analysis - USD Safe-Haven Gains on Negative Housing Data

Despite forecasts for a depreciation of the Dollar, many economists are now saying that the negative housing data released from the United States yesterday may actually bolster the USD. These contradictory claims are a result of the recent economic recession which has many investors going against forecasts in exchange for a safer investment. The USD appears to be the safest investment, as traders are moving en masse to buy into the greenback.

Economic News

USD - USD/JPY Climbs Back to November 2008 Prices

The greenback was traded near the highest level against the Japanese Yen since November. This came about from speculation that the U.S. durable goods report may show a decreasing figure, adding to the drop in home sales which boosted the currency's appeal as a refuge from the global slump. Analysts expect the Dollar to remain the safe-haven currency of choice in the coming days, as investors are still concerned about the global economic outlook.

The USD traded at 97.53 Yen from 97.39 Yen late in yesterday's New York trading hours. Against the EUR, the USD was at 1.2716, from 1.2723 yesterday, losing some of its momentum against its primary currency rival.

Contrary to forecasts, the greenback may rise against the EUR and GBP after an unexpected reduction in last month's U.S. Existing Home Sales report led to an appreciation of the nation's currency. The National Association of Realtors reported yesterday that purchases of existing homes in the U.S. fell 5.3% in January to an annual figure of 4.49 million, the lowest level since 1997! Apparently, the negative housing data has triggered more USD buying, especially against the EUR, keeping the U.S currency in demand as the safe-haven depended on during this global economic uncertainty and risk aversion.

However, any optimism that the global economy could be recovering might prompt investors to sell the Dollar and buy riskier assets and currencies. Several market players expect the USD to fall sharply once demand for Treasury and agency debt eases and the U.S. current account deficit swells. Once this happens, traders will start investing in other regions, such as Europe.

EUR - GBP Drops on Signs the British Recession is Deepening

The Euro-Zone currency fell more than 1% against the Dollar on Tuesday after European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet stated that the financial system was under severe strain, hampering an economic recovery. The economies which make up the Euro-Zone contracted by the most in at least 13 years, pushing the region into a deeper recession. The German economy also contracted the most in 22 years, a government report showed today.

The British Pound dropped against the USD and EUR fueling speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) will likely cut Interest Rates next week. The GBP weakened 1.7% to 1.4238 against the USD. Against the EUR, the Pound depreciated 0.9% to 0.8953. The Pound also slipped from the highest level in almost three months versus the Japanese yen as the Office for National Statistics said Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted the most since 1980!

The Pound extended losses after one of the BoE's policy-makers, David Blanchflower, stated that Britain's recession may intensify significantly in the coming months. Analysts say that the underlying fundamentals remain weak and that is having a short-term impact on the Sterling. The BoE meets to decide its Interest Rates next week. Policy-makers already cut the benchmark rate to 1%, a record low, and signaled they're willing to create money to help stimulate the U.K economy, which will likely drive the value of the GBP lower in the short-term.

JPY - Yen Declines as Japanese Economy Gets Worse

Japan's currency slid to a 3-month low against the USD after Japan's trade deficit widened the most in more than two decades, denting its allure as a refuge from the financial crisis. It also weakened versus the EUR after the government said exports tumbled 46% in January, signaling the slump in the world's second largest economy is deepening. It depreciated to 124.43 per EUR, the lowest level since Jan. 9th. Against the Dollar, the Yen continued to drop to 97.75, the weakest level since Nov. 11th.

The Japanese economy's contraction last quarter was the worst since 1974 and analysts predict the slump may drag into the next fiscal year. Output may shrink a record 4% starting April 1st, according to some economists. Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials said last week that the economy will remain in a severe state next quarter and companies will struggle to obtain financing as investors shun risk. The bank, which lowered the key overnight lending rate to 0.10% in December, last week said it will buy corporate bonds for the first time in order to stem the credit squeeze.

Oil - Crude Oil Rises Above $42.50 a Barrel

Crude Oil climbed 6% to above $42 a barrel on Wednesday, after a U.S. government report showed a sharp drop in gasoline inventories in the world's top energy consumer. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 1.7% rise in demand for fuel over the four weeks prior to February 20th. Further support for Oil prices came from reports this week of high compliance by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) with deep production cuts agreed last year to stem the slide in oil prices. The 11 OPEC members with quotas, excluding Iraq, reduced output by 3.8% to 25.3 million barrels a day in February.

The rise in Crude prices came despite a drop in the equities markets, with European shares hitting a new 6-year low. U.S. stocks fell after U.S. President Barack Obama's first address to Congress shed little new light on how he plans to stabilize the U.S economy and shore up banks. Analysts expect that Crude Oil prices will probably start rising in the second half of the year as a drop in demand starts leveling off and OPEC cuts supply further.

Technical News

EUR/USD
Yesterday's pennant formation apparently has not finished its development as the pair continues to consolidate towards the 1.2800 price level before making a significant breach. For the time being this pair continues to float between a distinct price-range. Buying on the lows and selling on the highs in this range appears to be a wise strategy today.

GBP/USD
There appears to be a bullish cross on the 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic, signaling an imminent upward correction to the down-trend seen throughout this week. With the weekly Momentum oscillator shifting into a sharp upward direction, it appears this pair may be due for a trend reversal. Going long with tight stops might be a good strategy today.

USD/JPY
The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the RSI oscillators of both the 4-hour and daily charts, indicating a downward correction may occur in the near future. With a bearish cross forming on the daily chart, this downward move may take place later today. Going short with tight stops might be a wise choice.

USD/CHF
After two violent breaches of the upper border on the hourly chart's Bollinger Bands late yesterday, this pair now appears to be settling down into a more neutral position. However, the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are beginning to tighten, indicating that another violent movement may occur in the near future. Traders may want to wait for the breach then swing.

The Wild Card

EUR/JPY
For the past two days this pair has been trading in a very solid range, with distinct highs and lows. However, the 4-hour and daily chart are beginning to signal that this pair is due for a downward correction. The price appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the RSI of both charts; and, the daily chart indicates that yesterday's trading ended with a doji formation, signaling relatively strong pressure for a reversal of the recent uptrend. Forex traders can benefit from this knowledge by entering their short positions early and riding the impending wave.

 

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Forexyard.com Analysis - U.S. Budget Deficit Set to Hurt the Dollar

President Barack Obama's announcement that the budget deficit is set to hit $1.75 trillion or 12% of GDP is likely to lead to a bearish Dollar in the medium-long term. Meanwhile, forex traders are advised to follow constant daily developments coming out of the U.S. economy, such as the release of today's quarterly U.S. GDP figures at 13:30 GMT. These figures are likely to determine the Dollar's bullishness going into next week's trading.

Read the in depth analysis of today at FOREXYARD News Center

 

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Forexyard.com Analysis - As the Global Economy Sinks the Dollar Rises to the Top

The USD may continue to strengthen on global economic weakness. As equity markets maintain their bearish momentum, the Dollar has shown considerable strength. The trend of buying Dollars over other major pairs could continue into this week as the global economy continues to suffer and risk aversion remains high.

Read the in depth analysis of today at FOREXYARD News Center

 

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Forexyard.com analysis - Additional Bailout for AIG May Prove to be USD-Positive

The USD rose to its highest level in 2 years against all of its major currency counterparts on speculation that the U.S. government would pour a further $30 billion into American International Group (AIG), fuelling safety buying of the USD. With recent gains, the USD has obtained a momentum that some say will last at least through the rest of March 2009.

Read the in depth analysis of today at FOREXYARD News Center

 

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Forexyard.com Analysis - European Rate Cuts in the Foreground for Forex Traders

European rate cut decisions, like those expected tomorrow by the ECB and BoE, typically result in traders pricing-in the impact a day or two ahead of schedule. As such, we may be seeing the depreciation of the EUR continue through the day as most traders are near 100% positive that the ECB will in fact slash rates by 50 basis points tomorrow around noon. This weakness will likely continue throughout today's trading.

Read the in depth analysis of today at FOREXYARD News Center

 

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Forexyard.com Analysis - European Rate Cuts to Determine Today's Market

One of the most important events for forex traders is a decision on short-term interest rates by central banks. Today, not 1, but 2 central banks are set to decrease interest rates by 50 basis points. The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) will likely decrease their rates around noon today (GMT), leading to depreciation across the boards for the EUR and GBP. This will no doubt be today's market mover.

Read the in depth analysis of today at FOREXYARD News Center