Formal Studies in Technical Analysis

[uasish]

Omkar,

Metastock reads .csv files of Excell,if you simulate (using RANDOM for O,H,L,C) in excell & save as .csv & later on with Downloader change to Metastock format,that will look like this.

Asish

 

[omkarmango]

Asish,

Thanx for the info. (I never used simulators OR random number generators.)

I dont have the particular data series also. but when overlayed the image file on my AB, strangely I found some essential elements of a real chart in it.

Too much of a coincidence...

either oxy genearated it taking the elements in to account (a possibility as he renamed the file initiating with zz.. coincidently I have the same habit)
OR its real data.

Omkar

 

[trader111]

Which elements of a real chart have you found, please explicate.

Have uploaded a XL sheet which generates random chart:
http://www. 4 shared .com/file/54643162/65afeeac/random_chart.html
(copy-paste link but remove spaces before hitting enter)

 

[oxusmorouz]

Asish,

Thanx for the info. (I never used simulators OR random number generators.)

I dont have the particular data series also. but when overlayed the image file on my AB, strangely I found some essential elements of a real chart in it.

Too much of a coincidence...

either oxy genearated it taking the elements in to account (a possibility as he renamed the file initiating with zz.. coincidently I have the same habit)
OR its real data.

Omkar

No sir, it is entirely random with 0 memory.

 

[sudoku1]

Oxy,

I dont know how you simulate this.
But I still think this is either a real chart of some trading instrument or derived from it.

I dont believe this as entirely random data.

Omkar

even if it is a random one....its in a med term uptrend if the last 6 months r taken in consideration..
exact supports can b found if the graph would had been on jawa ...

 

[oxusmorouz]

even if it is a random one....its in a med term uptrend if the last 6 months r taken in consideration..
exact supports can b found if the graph would had been on jawa ...

Yes, a coin toss game with 3 heads in a row is in a short term uptrend, 6heads in a row is in a medium term uptrend and 10heads makes it a long term uptrend. I guess for a short term uptrend, the support is at 3 heads? And if it breaks 3 heads, I guess it is headed for 6heads where it will find a strong resistance? I also guess it goes to 6heads from 3heads, it will find support at 4 heads because of 61.8% fibo retracement from 3-6 is near 4? The trading world survives on people like you.

 

[sudoku1]

Yes, a coin toss game with 3 heads in a row is in a short term uptrend, 6heads in a row is in a medium term uptrend and 10heads makes it a long term uptrend. I guess for a short term uptrend, the support is at 3 heads? And if it breaks 3 heads, I guess it is headed for 6heads where it will find a strong resistance? I also guess it goes to 6heads from 3heads, it will find support at 4 heads because of 61.8% fibo retracement from 3-6 is near 4? The trading world survives on people like you.

Cheat & love but don't love & cheat.

Think & love but dont love & think.

Break the heart & love
but don't Ever love & break the heart..

 

[trader111]

Cheat & love but don't love & cheat.

Think & love but dont love & think.

Break the heart & love
but don't Ever love & break the heart..

What exactly oxusmorouz did was pour a bucket full of cold water on your head full of bias and opinions. Cmm'on dude, you can thank him.

 

[trader111]

Yes, this is why it is not quite easy to explain why/ how technical analysis works?

Actually many people here have taken the pains to explain in detail why TA works to utter n00bs. But those are not willing to work out, or expect to be spoon fed will always complain.

Ahh CV... now I can understand why you were talking about private forum. I concur.

 

[trader111]

again quoting part of the paper which sounded acceptable to me:

A specific example of how confirmation bias is recognized as a potential source of inefficiency within the investment community is provided by Camerer and Loewenstein (2004, p.17). They report how an investment banker had described the way in which his firm combated the effects of traders emotional attachment to their past trades by periodically forcing traders to switch positions with each other.

Goetzmann and Peles (1997) found that even well-informed investors had a tendency to favorably distort their perceptions of the past performance of funds that they held. This may explain the observed asymmetry between investment flows into winning funds and out of losing funds (Ippolito, 1992).

The result is plotted in Figure 2 and shows a pattern of positive autocorrelations at short horizons followed by negative autocorrelations at longer horizons. It is therefore consistent with the empirical evidence documenting short-horizon momentum and long-horizon reversal.

SSRN Link: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=970852