some of the news posted on the quantumsquawk com
TRADE REC'S IFR MARKETS
Written by admin2
Thursday, 20 January 2011 13:18
EUR/CHF
The failure yesterday at 1.3000 leaves a shooting star on the daily candles, which suggests that a correction is due. The daily studies are mixed, but the slow stoch is heading lower from overbought levels. Intraday 1.2815 has stalled the pullback and we favor using upticks as fresh selling opportunities while below 1.3000.
USD/CAD
We booked profit on our long after the advance faltered by parity. 120-min studies are flashing overbought warnings that a pullback toward the day's low is a strong risk. Daily charts are bullish, having crossed above the 21-day MA today, now support at 0.9965, where our bid resides. Down TL and upper 21-d Bolli at 1.0095 are eyed above.
EUR/USD
Choppy price action continues to dictate intraday with the pair now upticking once more. However daily charts still look as though they could have peaked around the Bollinger top yesterday. Expect further stalling around here.
GBP/USD
The eight day sequence of higher highs was broken by the inside day yesterday but price has rallied back through 1.6000 again today. Shorts have been stopped out on the move. The daily studies are showing signs of toppling over again but need more confirmation.
EUR/GBP TRADE REC- IFR
Written by admin2
Thursday, 20 January 2011 13:17
Price rallied up to around the 21-day MA but failed and we have established short trades on the rejection from 0.8462 session highs. Now target the base of the Bollinger band at 0.8264 with stops above resistance at 0.8499. Daily charts are mixed athough hrlies are easing. Cover bounces for a profit.
COMMODITY CURRENCIES SOLD OFF...
Written by admin2
Thursday, 20 January 2011 13:17
[Dow Jones] The commodity trio of AUD, NZD and CAD just hit their respective day's lows vs the USD at 0.9909, 0.7613 and 1.0008. A UK bank trader says falling gold and copper prices and EUR/USD's failure to hold ground above 1.35 Thursday are all weighing on the commodity and risk-sensitive trio.
USD/BRL NDF PLAY
Written by admin2
Thursday, 20 January 2011 13:15
SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--The Brazilian real opened stronger on Thursday, gaining for a fourth consecutive session, on speculation the central bank will need to act more aggressively to bring down inflation after raising interest rates half a percentage point.
The real opened at BRL1.6674 to the dollar, stronger than Wednesday's close of BRL1.6710, according to Telekurs via Factset.
Late Wednesday, Brazil's monetary policy committee decided unanimously to raise the benchmark Selic rate to 11.25% from 10.75%.
The move was widely expected, but the bank stated that this was "the start of a process of adjustment to the base interest rate" to bring inflation to its target of 4.5%. The 12-month IPCA inflation rate is currently at 5.91%, according to the central bank.
The statement said the central bank will continue to monitor inflation in the light of both monetary tightening and other governmental actions, such as planned budget cuts by the federal government.
But market skepticism about the effectiveness of measures other than rate increases--and the willingness of the government to cut spending--is leading some to expect more aggressive cycle of hikes.
"The market consensus of Selic increase to 12.25% still seems too mild to deal with current and expected inflationary pressures, even considering the potential help of macroprudential measures" such as bank reserve increases, Banco Santander economists wrote. "We maintain the view that the convergence of inflation toward the target requires additional monetary efforts" and a boost in the rate to 13%.
In this week's central bank survey of financial market opinion, published Monday, economists predicted a rise in the Selic rate to 12.25% by the end of the year. Even with the expected rate hikes, the same analysts predicted a year-end inflation rate of 5.42%, down only marginally from 2010.
