Dear ST Bro,
Please help me with this doubts..
While trading swing in future derivative, how to carry over the position to next expiry?
Is it simply like just closing the current contract on expiry day, and immediately buying the next series contract ? (Which usually trades at a premium). For example - Lets say I am long on NIFTY future this series contract and my system says to carry the long to next series as well. Lets say on expiry day NIFTY fut (this series) is trading at 5850 where I closed the contract and bought the next series (5880) with a premium lets say 30 points. now if my TSL stays at 5800, shall I also increase my TSL to 5830 because of the premium on new contract or shall i take higher risk ? What if the premium will be dropped in next few session, where as spot value does not reduce significantly ??
Secondly, Since I am tracking 15-20 stocks in my swing watchlist at any point of time it can be possible to have a position in around 5-7 stocks. Since creating positions in stocks future (with more than 1 lot) requires huge trading capital to implement the MM effectively, I am sticking to cash market for now, where I can use scale in/scale out/partial exit and MM. But since overnight short position is not allowed in cash market, during a downtrend, how can I capitalize on the fall in price ? Shall I go long on ITM put for such things ??
Regards
Taiki
@ Taiki,
Let us see how we roll over the positions. In Nifty futures, the next month contract is at premium to the current month contract. So the simple and straightforward way is close current months long position and open long position in next month contract at higher price because of the premiums. Though we have to pay extra by way of premiums,over a long period sometime we will be long and paying premium, sometimes we will be short and receiving premiums...so it evens out. And if you calculate 30-40 or even 70 points premium on 8300 Nifty it is less than 0.5-0.75 % per month or 6-9 % per annum...it is the cost of doing business ....
Now I will tell you another way which is not all that straight, it is tricky. I normally roll over my long positions over a period of 2-3 days. Suppose I am rolling over longs position, then I will look for some pivot high break and then will buy next months contract and then when the market goes up by 10-20 points, I sell the current months longs. Here we are increasing our risk, so do it with 20 % position at a time and with stoploss .So in 4-5 trades you can roll over the entire position. The pivot low break also can be used...sell the current month longs and then 10-20 points down ,buy the next months contracts....
we can save 10-20 points in this but it comes with added risk and that needs to be understood.This is the reason we roll over in lots of 20 % so if any trade is stuck up, we can keep stoploss and the full position is not at stake.
My Interactive Brokers terminal gives me charts for different months contracts ...so after the roll over, we then follow the stoploss of next months contract chart...normally premiums dont collapse till 10-12 days but if it does, we have to trade with our stoploss 30 points higher in the next months contracts....
If you go long in the slightly deep In The Money puts the premiums will fluctuate very close to the futures price fluctuations and you can capture most of the downtrend through buying puts.
I tried to answer all your doubts...if anything further, feel free to ask.
Smart_trade