General Trading Chat

[BrokerJi]

I had posted yesterday that for the bull market to continue, Nifty had to close above 7715 (the reasoning for this too had been posted 1 month ago, in this Feb 25 post).

However, yesterday, Nifty closed at 7704 even though it went past 7715

Today also, Nifty failed at 7715 even though it briefly crossed it.

What we're seeing so far (March rally) is the result of huge short covering (loss recovery for those who were short in Jan/Feb) and a "pre rally". It's not a full blown rally as yet.

Nifty won't be out of the woods until it closes beyond 7842

Chart posted here: http://www.traderji.com/equities/101170-market-cycle-dates.html#post1146425

Technology apart (read technical analysis), are there any fundamental reason for this surge? I mean nothing seems to have changed on ground as such? I met some guys into Iron mining (Malaysia) yesterday and they told me that mines there are closed since September, as China is not buying ore aggressively and there's a potential slow down spreading for 2-3 years. In fact many are on long term leave, like 6 months etc.
So one wonders what drove Nifty from 6900 (pre-budget) levels to 7700 just in 3 weeks? I hope operators doesn't have big role in deciding the course and length here, as very few theories work in inefficient markets.

BJ

 

[avshake]

Thank you so much Sir, from last couple of months, stop loss are keep on triggering, sometimes I think and blame myself that I am panoti. Please share some tips for me, I don't want to give up meanwhile I don't want to loose my hard earned money too

May be your chain of thoughts for deciding a SL are "common knowledge" and so common that Market Makers can easily touch and rebound from that level.

Try to follow money management rules and put SL using daily Volatility numbers.

 

[Contra]

Technology apart (read technical analysis), are there any fundamental reason for this surge? I mean nothing seems to have changed on ground as such? I met some guys into Iron mining (Malaysia) yesterday and they told me that mines there are closed since September, as China is not buying ore aggressively and there's a potential slow down spreading for 2-3 years. In fact many are on long term leave, like 6 months etc.
So one wonders what drove Nifty from 6900 (pre-budget) levels to 7700 just in 3 weeks? I hope operators doesn't have big role in deciding the course and length here, as very few theories work in inefficient markets.

BJ

I can think of seven reasons:
1. Rate cut hopes from RBI
2. Higher GDP figures vs lower inflation
3. Actual rate cuts in the govt's small savings schemes (in line with inflation)
4. Short covering / Value buying (or simply a bear market rally)
5. Corporate buyback of shares (at least in the developed markets, which relates to FII activity)
6. Fed decision to keep interest rates on hold (again relates to FII risk appetite)
7. Institutional HFT / Algo traders in action

The past many years have shown that (fortunately or unfortunately) central banks are able to create liquidity in the markets through infinite variations of QE & NIRP even in the midst of chronically poor global fundamentals.

That is, Central bank intervention > Fundamentals (at least least till that party runs its course).

 

[vittal]

Dear Friends,

Is there any one trading like buying r selling at certain price and should hold on either side minimum 10-30 days r 25-50% return..without technical,fundamental nothing...Dear frnds pl share ur valuable thoughts on this...whats this method called?

Regards
Vittal

 

[arsh22g]

World may not get destroyed by all this stuff..world will certainly get destroyed by lack of moral values and spirituality

Morality is subjective, spirituality is not. But the problem is everyone has his/her morals, but rarest of rare have experienced spirituality, and those who have experienced it don't really care about if someone lives or dies, because then they see only one, all the distinctions created by mind and body just evaporate.

It's good to see many spiritual people have done good for humanity though, but it's not at all a result of enlightenment.

 

[Mungus]

both up and down move captured by vwap and ama combination in rcom..

Sir rules please.You were to update the method part.

 

[TracerBullet]

Thank you so much Sir, from last couple of months, stop loss are keep on triggering, sometimes I think and blame myself that I am panoti. Please share some tips for me, I don't want to give up meanwhile I don't want to loose my hard earned money too

While you learn and improve, there is no reason to loose your hard earned money. Trade with couple of stock shares and scale up when you are ready.

Understand it will take time, maybe atleast a year or two. If you need a method, you can start with this one.

 

[vikas2131]

Morality is subjective, spirituality is not. But the problem is everyone has his/her morals, but rarest of rare have experienced spirituality, and those who have experienced it don't really care about if someone lives or dies, because then they see only one, all the distinctions created by mind and body just evaporate.

It's good to see many spiritual people have done good for humanity though, but it's not at all a result of enlightenment.

Some moral values are universal like honesty and truthfulness..there cannot be any excuse for not having those universal qualities..

Enlightenment is the result of many spiritual lives lived by any human being..Spirituality is about rising above me and myself..its about leaving greed and the end justifies the mean mentality and spending ur own life in service of people without expecting anything back...Without spirituality the essence of human lives will be lost..

 

[Mungus]

Some moral values are universal like honesty and truthfulness..there cannot be any excuse for not having those universal qualities..

Enlightenment is the result of many spiritual lives lived by any human being..Spirituality is about rising above me and myself..its about leaving greed and the end justifies the mean mentality and spending ur own life in service of people without expecting anything back...Without spirituality the essence of human lives will be lost..

Vikas Sir,please transfer 2Lakhs in my trading account then.

 

[Fundootrader]

Technology apart (read technical analysis), are there any fundamental reason for this surge? I mean nothing seems to have changed on ground as such? I met some guys into Iron mining (Malaysia) yesterday and they told me that mines there are closed since September, as China is not buying ore aggressively and there's a potential slow down spreading for 2-3 years. In fact many are on long term leave, like 6 months etc.
So one wonders what drove Nifty from 6900 (pre-budget) levels to 7700 just in 3 weeks? I hope operators doesn't have big role in deciding the course and length here, as very few theories work in inefficient markets.

BJ

This is central bank driven rally - and will be led by big fall shortly - But does that impact you - yes if investor - don't invest now, as trader you should have rode the trend by now - if not, then sit tight