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European markets are staging a rally showing that the decision on Brexit referendum is likely to be "stay".How will our market and other world markets react to various outcomes of Brexit decision ?My views as under:

1) The decision is in favour of stay and it is with large margin over the exit camp. In this case there will be a rally in the markets as the money on the sidelines will rush in. Markets have already started factoring this outcome and I expect Nifty to rally by 150-200 points in next few days.

2) The decision is in favour of stay but with very thin margin over exit camp.In this case there will be uncertainty hanging on the market for future and in this case markets may rally bit causiously and Nifty may go up 100-150 points and markets will start worrying about monsoon,GST bill etc.

3) Third option is the decision comes in favour of exit.This will create big upheaval in entire European region.There will be large political and economic fallout in UK and European Union. This option will come as a surprise and the market will react negatively.This downturn will not be over quickly but it can go on for few months.In this case Nifty may dip to 7700-7800 in months to come.European Union will face the risk of breaking up and European countries dipping into decision.There will be changes in political arena in UK.

SEBI and RBI are on high alert for tackling high volatility after this referendum decision.

Smart_trade
 
Last edited:

deba72

Well-Known Member
What I understand this referendum is not legally binding. So even if the 'quit' camp wins, this will finally boil down to parliamentary politics in UK and it will involve prolong negotiations, both within the country as well as within EU and might take anything from 2-3 years. So a 'quit' doesn't necessarily mean 'quit' in actual terms.

Market though is a different beast. So it would react in its own way.

By the way, a Britain out of EU would actually be better for Indian trade and commerce. But chances of 'remain' camp winning looks better as of now.
 
Subah subah kya excitement!

Vote counting during market hours usually swings one way or the other decisively very early.

But here it seems all the world markets are swinging wildly based on 0.2% moves around the 50% mark. Never seeen anything like this!

Titanic ki tarah :D
 

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