General Trading Chat

[TracerBullet]

No point in saying anything ..people believe what they want to believe based on their own personal beliefs and they just look for ways to justify it..

I dont know what Nifty / market will do in short/medium term but am happy to stay invested for long term.
People were looking at 7k when nifty was at 8k, at 6k when it was at 7k and now ofcourse nifty is overvalued. Markets are not that simple i think.

But Anyway, do apply that statement to yourself too

 

[Punter786]

Controversy around our GDP figures is a well known fact. A simple Googling will reveal that. A 7% growing economy looks and behaves totally differently both in data and surrounding development. Liquidity has distorted markets is also a well accepted fact. A lot of people argue in favor of a bubble until it burst! So everyone is entitled to his views.

 

[TracerBullet]

Controversy around our GDP figures is a well known fact. A simple Googling will reveal that. A 7% growing economy looks and behaves totally differently both in data and surrounding development. Liquidity has distorted markets is also a well accepted fact. A lot of people argue in favor of a bubble until it burst! So everyone is entitled to his views.

Markets may or may not be overvalued, but India is certainly not a bubble right now. Bubble is complete mania, best be wary of permabears too.

Recent views of Prashant Jain here and here

 

[jain.er]

Markets may or may not be overvalued, but India is certainly not a bubble right now. Bubble is complete mania, best be wary of permabears too.

Recent views of Prashant Jain here and here

permabears

Fancy and interesting term. If possible please elaborate with example.

 

[nirav_j]

Saying 7% looks different and it is 5% actually is one of the most unscientific things I've heard.
The speculation has no basis.

I've seen pakis talk bs about our GDP and growth rate.
i wonder what possesses our own to talk BS without any sound factual basis.

 

[Punter786]

Markets may or may not be overvalued, but India is certainly not a bubble right now. Bubble is complete mania, best be wary of permabears too.

Recent views of Prashant Jain here and here

Not saying it's a bubble. Just gave an example of how people think they are right!

But yes, Nifty will be in a bubble zone if it goes to 9k. Just see how pathetic our economy data is and decide for yourself.

 

[deba72]

One recently retired CEO of a very reputed cement company happens to be a relative of one of my friends... He recently said in a private conversation, if the GDP growth is actually 7.8%.. then cement consumption growth should have been in the range of 15-17 %...

And surely thats not the case...

 

[TracerBullet]

permabears

Fancy and interesting term. If possible please elaborate with example.

google.

I used to get newsletters from a stock 'research' site that had a permabear, during euro crisis. Constantly listening/reading their garbage can be harmful if you are investing for long term, certainly india has space to grow.

Not saying it's a bubble. Just gave an example of how people think they are right!

But yes, Nifty will be in a bubble zone if it goes to 9k. Just see how pathetic our economy data is and decide for yourself.

Things change, markets tries to look/guess ahead.
No 9k is not a bubble either. Bubble reflects in people's behavior and future outlook. It will probably look as a climax in Say Weekly/Monthly charts. Just saying that does not make it easy to differentiate it with real strength though. Decent read here

And ST's old comment below, anyway good day.

- Signs of Bull Market End / Bubble
- Watched a nice discussion on TV. Thought of sharing some points as under. The topic was whether the ongoing bull market has still more steam left or we are near the end of the bull market
- The signs of bull market topping out was not seen and the signs are as under :
1) Inflation goes up and out of Govt's control
2) Interest rates are high
3) The excesses are clearly seen. Markets gallop and the last phase is a blow off phase where markets go up few % points every day
4) Cats and Dogs shares and shares with poor fundamentals go to dizzy proportions
5) Retail participation increases and the retail gets trapped at the bull market top
6)Traders find it very easy to make huge gains ,your driver or maid servant's husband will tell you how he made money in stocks....that is a sure sign of top approaching.Rikshaw drivers,taxi drivers will talk about stock market gains
7) After the top, the market will crash and will come down not by 8-10 % but 50-60 % from the top....traders and investors trapped will get devastated
8) Everyone even new investors will find making money in the market very easy and they will get sucked in...
- In addition to the above points :
1) At bull market top, there will be business magazine interviews of brokers,fund managers and large traders
2) There will be sudden rush for companies to come out with share issues and these issues will get hugely oversubscribed irrespective of the merits of the issue
3)There will be rush of mutual fund houses floating all kind of fancy funds with innovative names
4) All traders ( even 1 -2 months experienced traders) will start feeling that they are the Market Wizards and they have figured out everything about the market
5) Traders will start aggressively managing outside money promising very high % returns to the investors
6) Traders will be the most popular people at parties with everyone asking for tips to make money
- Bull market always builds in slow grinding upmove
- Only in the last leg of the bull market we have euphoric steep rise and in this phase cats and dogs start rising and every trader/investor with 2 months experience thinks that he is born to become new Warren Buffet or Michael Marcus
- And the blow off phase sows the seeds of next severe multi -year bear market. This sequence continues with predictable pattern

 

[Punter786]

For kids out here. Here is one Paki Ruchir Sharma http://www.firstpost.com/business/n...-to-ruchir-sharmas-doubts-on-gdp-2871830.html

 

[deba72]

Lots of number are being thrown around but nobody is presenting any sound logic..economy growth could be even lower than 5%...we dnt know..Now someone is saying that if GDP growth is actually 7.8%.. then cement consumption growth should have been in the range of 15-17 %.... It is possible but what is exact logic behind it..can somebody explain ??

Its not my word.. Read my post.. I am no economics or cement industry expert...So I just quoted what I heard from him..

There has to be some correleation..but I dont know what it is..