General Trading Chat

[travi]

Probably on its listing day or weeks or months after when it's future lot size was huuuge, this gmr had traded even more turnover than nifty future for a day or two back in 2007 iirc, it's price was 1000 then?

It crashed to below 20 rs............ I am not sure what's so good about this stock, but it's market, I don't know fundamentals, maybe it's possible

I think both of you have a very different TF that should be considered.

Leading upto 2008, Real estate and infra companies were the biggest bull sectors of their time. On a decade TF, they have been wealth destroyers for lack of a better word.

If you see GMR split/bonus adjusted pricing, back in those days it would have been 100-130 so ur assumption isn't totally incorrect.
Companies like LT which are probably the best in the space fundamentally are currently trading at their decade old all-time-highs.
In terms of wealth creation, this space was the last anyone invested following 2009.

On a recent shorter TF and the next 5-10yrs what infra can bring is worth pondering given that BJP continues a 2nd term etc.

Maybe ST Sir can share some thoughts here, and the choice of going with current sector leaders vs a gamble on sector laggards.

 

[varunkochhar]

Travi ji there are 2 reasons for my being bullish on this. First is technically the OBV has broken above its past 5 year highs (Signifying accumulation) and secondly fundamentally it is set to earn per passenger in its BOT operations in Delhi/Bangalore/Turkey airports which would significantly bring down Debt and in falling interest rate regime the profits would go up due to lower interest.

 

[Smart_trade]

I think both of you have a very different TF that should be considered.

Leading upto 2008, Real estate and infra companies were the biggest bull sectors of their time. On a decade TF, they have been wealth destroyers for lack of a better word.

If you see GMR split/bonus adjusted pricing, back in those days it would have been 100-130 so ur assumption isn't totally incorrect.
Companies like LT which are probably the best in the space fundamentally are currently trading at their decade old all-time-highs.
In terms of wealth creation, this space was the last anyone invested following 2009.

On a recent shorter TF and the next 5-10yrs what infra can bring is worth pondering given that BJP continues a 2nd term etc.

Maybe ST Sir can share some thoughts here, and the choice of going with current sector leaders vs a gamble on sector laggards.

Every bull market some different sectors lead and in current bull market, Consumer Finance,Home finance,Private Banks,Auto and auto ancillary sector are leading. So we invest in the leaders in these leading sectors.Our investment decision is primarily on the growth the company is showing and visibility of that growth in next few years. L & T ,though is a great stock, but still not surpassed its all time high.

There are some evergreen stocks like Asian Paints, HDFC Bank which are great stocks in all the bull markets.

Smart_trade

 

[Vipul_84]

ST Sir, how we find leaders in the sectors?Any clue for that?Should we check some fundamental ratios etc?

Every bull market some different sectors lead and in current bull market, Consumer Finance,Home finance,Private Banks,Auto and auto ancillary sector are leading. So we invest in the leaders in these leading sectors.Our investment decision is primarily on the growth the company is showing and visibility of that growth in next few years. L & T ,though is a great stock, but still not surpassed its all time high.

There are some evergreen stocks like Asian Paints, HDFC Bank which are great stocks in all the bull markets.

Smart_trade

 

[varunkochhar]

I expect GMRinfra to hit 22.50-23 before 30th Sep. That is an upside of close to 30-40% from current rates.

 

[princy01]

Maybe you are mistaking it for some other share. It has not crossed 130 since its listing in 2007. This is a Re.1 paid up share so if we compare it to Rs.10 Paid up then it is equivalent to Rs.180 (if it is at Rs.18). By the way it is up 5% in today's depressed market.

i am not wrong on share , might be wrong on price because of split and bonus and poor memory , after split and bonus prices are different on charts even, also one of my distant relative(wife side) was on its board member so i know this stock from then, that distant relative was former deputy RBI governor

i am damn sure its lot size was atleast 10 lacs that time maybe more dont remember, it traded huge turnover even greater than nifty future for a couple of days , 10000 crore and above in fno

also i think the best performers dont go down like this normally,

having said that nothing is impossible if fundamentals are right

 

[varunkochhar]

It was split two times since listing but no bonus issue. At listing the FV was 10, then it became 2 and now it is 1. So at around 130 (it must have been 1300 at 10Rs.FV)

 

[varunkochhar]

I am just now basing my buy on multiyear OBV Breakout (Signifying accumulation complete/ in progress). And moreover with everything being so expensive this would not go down much in case of a deep correction in the markets as i think that the worst in this share has already been priced in. But pls do not go all out or take leveraged positions. Treat it as an SIP of say 100 shares a month.

 

[princy01]

It was split two times since listing but no bonus issue. At listing the FV was 10, then it became 2 and now it is 1. So at around 130 (it must have been 1300 at 10Rs.FV)

google chart without split and bonus adjustment , so it was atleast 400 then

 

[varunkochhar]

Anyways the power of technical analysis is already unleashed as it is up by more than 5% from the point of recommendation.