Update @ 4.02pm
I was expecting a reversal yesterday at the last min candle or at todays opening. it showed the signs and it moved up as well but then i changed my bias because of bearish pattern formation and made me to think that Blue wave(c) might have not yet been over so i opened the possibility of 5 of (c) could be an ending diagonal but though it fell about 150 points and it didnt move below further got stuck within a zone of 200-300 points So far it respected the reversal zone line and didnt break above it. When it broke above tentative reversal zone, I wanted to check the chart for bullish sentiment. But there was no sign so started looking for other possibilities of a pattern with bearish sentiment and realised that wave 4 of (C) could be making a complicated triangle and it might still be in progress and to support that reversal line is not yet broken. Earlier I was expecting wave 5 of (C) to take around 200-300 points fall. But looking at the scenario it might fall for another 800 points approximately if wave (4) ends around 25200 zone. we could fine tune the fall points as time goes by. But by any means if it breaks above the reversal line with an impulsive force then that is reversal.
My current expectation is that it is making triangle inside a triangle that indicates so much of confusion among the people about market.Its really difficult to get in to very much lower time frame.So at the movement I am stopping it with 5 min time frame. Looks like b wave of smaller triangle is half way through and we might have C,D,E before wave 5 to begin. It might take a day or 2.
Important Note: Whatever I feel as Blue (A)(B)(C) could easily be relabeled as 123. Because structure is same for both the label. Currently my expectation is (A)(B)(C) with an anticipation of couple of new all time highs in market. everything will be decided based on the wave development after blue wave (C). I am already sensing from other stocks that we might be heading in to a "great depression". I know its scary word. But that is what it makes me to sense and it is certainly not going to be just like 2008. Few weeks back I was in an opinion that we might head towards 30K -32k in banknifty before the end of this year. Now i feel we might not achieve that in this year. I have been in an anticipation that we might have to make new highs in index couple of times as to form Ending diagonal before we go in to that phase. ED anticipation of making new highs is instill play unless we get different signs.Wave developments after wave(c) might give concrete answer for that. After all we just have to move along the way the price moves.Till then lets be safe. We will get clue from market whether it is going to go up from current zone or if it is going to fall as plotted. In either case we will get a clue from market itself.
Special Note: If you feel that this message is too long to read and boring, please skip it.Thanks.Cheers
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