General Trading Chat

Don't expect a rally anytime soon

Although the market has done 4-5% of correction from its highs, this doesn't look like one of those situations where it is an opportunity for more buying. Let's have a closer look of Nifty 50 to analyze the current market situation.

Looking at the daily chart, the drop on 5th Aug lead to breakout of 3 SPLs. Since then this is doing a retest of the SPLs. Going by neoclassical method, there is high probability that this will regenerate downside and extend further till it finds a decent support (which happens to be another 3% down near 23,400 area). We cannot refute this thesis until and unless price fails the SPL tests (going above 24,582).
1723650183092.png


But this, by any stretch, doesn't mean beginning of a downtrend. Looking at the bigger picture, the uptrend looks quite strong. We can only expect a shift in trend if price breaks below 21130, that is a down move of around 15%, which shouldn't be happening anytime soon.
1723650183180.png


In conclusion, if you are looking to buy new positions, it is better to wait for price to either find a good support at 23400 or wait for the SPL tests to fail.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
did a low of 24403.20
and seems reversing.
but if fails to reverse then may move for 24100/050/24000 levels.

ltp 24245
N50 touched the low of 24100, yesterday

Now on breaching and staying below 24100, likely to fall to 23800/700 zone.
If recovers from this zone, should move up for 24400/500 levels.

Below 23700 ........

btw it will be interesting to watch N50 moves, from tomorrow to next Friday
 
N50 touched the low of 24100, yesterday

Now on breaching and staying below 24100, likely to fall to 23800/700 zone.
If recovers from this zone, should move up for 24400/500 levels.

Below 23700 ........

btw it will be interesting to watch N50 moves, from tomorrow to next Friday
Though N50 didnt fall to 23800/700 zone but
moved to 24400/500 zone

Now let us see if N50 be able to move for 24650/700/750 levels on staying above 24400/500 zone

ltp 24444
 
BN is volatile today :D
I am always uncomfortable trading on one sided trend days. The BN may move up or down 1200 pts, but I am scared of a retracement which is always swift and deep. Even if it resumes the original direction, the small options trader is wiped out.

So made do with pennies today.
 
Friday was a good relief to investors with nifty surging 1.5%. But does it mean the end of hard times in the market? Let's have a closer look.

The breakout of 3 SPLs on daily chart made me cautious of this market correction. Failure of these swing points on a retest would be a good confirmation that this was just a regular correction in the market. 2 out of 3 SPLs have already failed the test but there is still 1 to go. I would prefer to see it getting failed as well before thinking of adding new position.

1723859882367.png
 

Similar threads