Going With The 60min Flow!!!

[Smart_trade]

You may be 100% correct in what you say!!! BUT I still believe that 'bias' for or against a system really affects the results in a back test if done manually!!!!
And also believe that the test results shall never match the actual results!!! They may be better or worse!!!
Try to analyse Oct 2007 derivative month to 31 Dec 2007 derivative month.

Regards

Sir,

Looking at the period suggested I am convinced that the" bias" does play a role . This is a period where any trend following system has to make money but I will try to select a period which is not very strongly trending and not too choppy.

With Best Wishes

 

[Saint]

Can we take a trade based on 60 min and once its in good profits, convert it as a EOD trade, just to let the profits run some more (presuming the daily is in uptrend). This will mean taking exits only as per eod charts and not 60 min.

It is diff from finetuning entry using 60 min... as the initial stops there wud be on eod.

Thanks for being so patient and bearing with a barrage of questions.

Rakesh

Hi Rakesh,

Why not?Basically using stops as per the 60min charts initially,once in profits then making it EOD stops........if it works for you.The problem would be a scenario where you took a trade off the 60min charts,neat profits,and then shifting stops to the eod charts which would be way further than the 60min charts.........How do you determine position sizing,risk management?The moment you start to take exits off the daily and entries off the 60min with an initial stop off the 60min,you are going to assume too much risk,unless you have found some way to comabt that........In a scenario,where the trend continues in your direction,you could make big,but a turn around and an exit off the daily charts after an entry off the 60min will be damaging to your account and your peace of mind.......So careful over there!

I have found that shifting time frames can be damaging.......fine tuning is fine but all else off the time frame that you are trading.........Shifting stops from one time frame to the other.....Careful,my friend!

Another thing:If you plan to revert to shorts after a long,which pivot would you take?Few problems there....


All the best!
Saint

 

[rakeshluthra430]

Hi Rakesh,

Why not?Basically using stops as per the 60min charts initially,once in profits then making it EOD stops........if it works for you.The problem would be a scenario where you took a trade off the 60min charts,neat profits,and then shifting stops to the eod charts which would be way further than the 60min charts.........How do you determine position sizing,risk management?The moment you start to take exits off the daily and entries off the 60min with an initial stop off the 60min,you are going to assume too much risk,unless you have found some way to comabt that........In a scenario,where the trend continues in your direction,you could make big,but a turn around and an exit off the daily charts after an entry off the 60min will be damaging to your account and your peace of mind.......So careful over there!

I have found that shifting time frames can be damaging.......fine tuning is fine but all else off the time frame that you are trading.........Shifting stops from one time frame to the other.....Careful,my friend!

Another thing:If you plan to revert to shorts after a long,which pivot would you take?Few problems there....


All the best!
Saint

Crystal clear now Sir...thanks a lot for clarifying.

Thanks a lot,
Rakesh

 

[Saint]

Yes Sir, I most certainly plan to backtest the "Going with 60 min------" system on NFatleast for 3 months and post the results.Regarding the test period do you have any particular favorite period to suggest ? I am absolutely sure that the seniors who are writing inthis thread would have backtested the system before putting it on Traderji and I wanted to know the test results from them. And Dear Sir,faith has nothing to do with backtesting results if the backtest is done with eagerness to find the truth.And having faith also has nothing to do with the fact whether the system is a profitable system or not as it is a function of the system expectancy.If one has faith on an incompetent system and trade it one will loose "Systematically."

I am sure Traderji is read by expert traders and novices. So the backtest is a MUST.Have you ever read a new drug or a surgical precedure released for use without stringent testing ? This is a forum based on scientific principles and hard evidence and I am sure testing should not hurt anyone's ego but it will definately give lot of confidence to new traders and save them from avoidable and sure trading losses. BTW this post is not to doubt or challenge anyone as we all have a common challenge" THE MARKET"

Good to know that you would be backtesting it,sincerely doubt if anyone's ego is going to be hurt by your simple backtesting...........curious though,hope you realise all the teachings involved,it's not simple pivots,there are lots of ifs and buts,gaps........strategies change,vertical gradient move.........strategies change,major pivots,minor pivots..........Do backtest it after knowing all the various scenarios involved.

It's also important to know that we are mainly systematic,mechanicalised(not mechanised) discretionary traders(I guess!!)...........any backtesting is good,I guess,but I am waiting for your results before I compare it with mine.

One more thing: Don't try it with Nifty Futures,I have already mentioned it that I would prefer trading NF intraday,and the massive gaps make this Flow Method almost impossible,even dangerous,during volatile times!

Once again,looking fwd to the backtesting......try Aban,or Sesa......since this thread has been tracking them long and short so far!

Saint

 

[Saint]

So in this case we will only take the trades in the direction of 60 Mins trend but the entry-exit according to pivots on the 15 mins charts.

Same as trading any timeframe (15 minutes, in this case) with a higher timeframe as prespective (60 mins, in this case)



Ok, we will then call it the Going with the 15 Mins Flow!!!



And finally what Not to do, we will call it Bombay Bhelpuri



Nice lessons, Thanks.

Sanjay

Always a pleasure to read your posts,Sanjay...

Saint

 

[Saint]

Was toying with the idea about showing how the trades in Aban and Sesa would have gone over the last year........but it's not as simple as "Made 115 points in short trades,lost 200 pts long"......The 115 pts in the green would have seen addition of positions that make it equal to 600 points.The 200 points loss from initial stops is just that........

Unable to dedicate that much of time or mind to the past.......but do feel free to backtest if that makes you feel better.Meanwhile,to the others who have been great followers of the "Teach a Man..." and this thread,trade light till you are comfortable.Feel free to throw it aside if uncomfortable.If comfortable,let us instead focus our energies to putting in that perfect trade,again and again.

This thread was and is meant as an attempt to share what has worked for me.

Saint

 

[Saint]

Hello, Satya and Milky,
I hv never studied the pivots deeply, and with my limited knowledge of the subject the comment I am going to make may be totally wrong :

The Lower Pivot of 4650 , according to me should be considered as a Major Pivot. My reason for saying so is that as per chart posted, this level was tried to overcome for almost 6+ hours (8 Hourly bars have closed above this level) without able to cross the previous Pivot High!!! So when such a level breaks, it should be considered a strong support giving way, so I call it a major Pivot!!! My thinking is (for what it is worth) that as in trendline, the more the bars take support on the trendline more strong it is considered, accrdingly my view for a Pivot!!!!
Would be happy to be termed correct by Saint, and frankly as happy to be proved wrong so that I can rectify my viewsa nd thinking!!!
Best regards!!!
-R K Karnani

Hi RK,

Agreed on the pivot bit.........and yep,the longer it dithers around that pivot area and breaks,that pivot assumes greater significance.

That area of pivot break would have been the reversal to shorts again.

Yet,the flow is sweeter in many stock futures as opposed to the Nifty futs.

Saint

 

[Saint]

UPDATES

SESA GOA:Still all 6 short,avg at 3903,stop loss brought down to 3680

ABAN OFFSHORE:Still holding all 10 lots,avg 3848,stops same at 3700

JP ASSOC:Exitted all 6 shorts at 203,and reverted to longs........+8.33 on 6,equivalent to +25pts on 2 contracts.

All the best!
Saint

ps:Thus far:SESA Short=+115,ABAN short=+10,JP long=-10.8,SESA Long=+60,ABAN Long=-135,JP short=+25pts

UPDATES

SESA GOA:Stopped and long 2 lots at 3632 ... SESA Short=+271 pts,as 3 times more than initial position,equivalent to 271 * 3=813 pts

ABAN :Still holding all 10 shorts.

JP ASSOC::Still holding both longs.

Till date:

SESA Short=+115,ABAN short=+10,JP long=-10.8,SESA Long=+60,ABAN Long=-135,JP short=+25pts,SESA GOA short=+813pts......all the above as per initial positions of 2 contracts each.

Saint

 

[Saint]

Gr8 going,mouth watering positions.

Thanx Asish.........hope all's well with you,my friend.

Saint

 

[Saint]

So at present,stop in ABAN is at 3670 plus a bit........am putting mine around 3688.

Saint