Going with the Intraday Mini-Flow!!
- Thread starter Saint
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what do you mean by backtest. i do not understand 
Thar hard work was done by Saint in deciding about the Filter levels for a number of stocks and shred with all of us here!!!
This scenario appeared twice during the day...
First a pivot, then next 3 bars making LLs; so, we have total 4 bars making LL pattern...
so, should we apply the 4 bar rule & shift the SAR accordingly, or it remains at Pivot high?????
(there was no pivot in lower time frame in 1st scenario, and assuming there was no such lower TF pivot in 2nd scenario too)
PS: in scenario 2, there was a pivot formed in 15min chart - so no doubt about that... SAR shifts to such pivot high in 15 min...
BUT what if there was no pivot formed in lower TF too in scenario 2; that's why I wanted AN OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION ON THIS, PLEASE...............................................................................
On 15-min chart last 6 candles are in RED.
AIM:The aim is to trade everyday,and if all goes well,to trade between 10am and 3:25 pm............to trigger without thinking if triggers are hit,trail stop without thinking because that is our Plan,to exit without thinking if stops hit.
PERSPECTIVE:Although we would be trading a particular time frame,we will not be basing our decisions on a larger timeframe.......but we will be taking the help of the larger time frame and the immediate smaller time frame so that we are able to see things more clearly.
TIME FRAME OF TRADE:The 30min chart...........with the help of the 60 and the 20.
CHARTS:Candlestick charts.......just because it gives me better visuals,and a particular pattern that crops up on the 60 helps with the Reversal days.And yet,whatever the pattern,it is the pivot that we are trading.And it is the Pivot that tells us to get out of positions and to stay in.
ENTRY:Allow the 5min bar,the first of the day to form......go long if the high + filter is taken out.Go short if the 5min bar low is taken out.Again with a filter.
MOVING FILTER:For the NF,put in a moving filter at Rs 14 on the 30min charts.......meaning that we want to trade the breakout on the 5 only if it shows strength enough for us to feel confident enough about that particular trade.Bar 1 high is 4312,Bar 2 high is 4320,Bar 3 high is 4330,Bar 4 high is 4337.........meaning we look on and not enter that trade.What we are looking for is a breakout bar,and not a sad excuse of a bar,with some tails.
Once that first bar is formed,we are basically looking to buy Rs14 over the high of that bar.and short Rs14 below the low of that bar.Once the entry is triggerred,presuming a long has been triggerred,stop loss is Rs 7 below the low of that bar.But only on trigger.
And another thing:We get a breakout,add the 14 to it.....and then trade breaks down,we are back to Rs7 for reversal entry,etc.This Rs14 is only for the trade that comes along with the first bar even if the first trade comes many bars later.Other than that trade,it's all Rs7 all the way.
STOP LOSS:Rs 7 below the low of the first bar once we get that breakout in case of longs.Rs 7 above the high once the shorts are triggerred.
TRAIL STOP:Trail stops only on higher pivot lows in longs.......trail stops to lower pivot highs in shorts.If you get strong 4 bars up on the 30 or more,move the stop to the low of 2 bars back.Same as the 2 bar method we employ in the 60min Flow.Only difference is use this only after we get 4 bars up.And if the 5th bar makes a new high,then trail stop to 3rd bar low,so on so forth.
Remember one thing though:2 bar method trail stop is at 4355.Pivot formed on the 30,that is very evident on the 20,trail stop there is 4367.Trail stops using Pivots are much more important.Priority is with the Pivot Stop Loss.
STOP AND REVERSE:All stops are reverse points.....Stops are placed above the high of the first bar in case of shorts,and moved down only if we get a reversal or after 4 bars.There are 2 types of reversals:a)No warning whatsoever,a V Pattern,a fall and a quick rise.No pivots on the 15min charts,take stops if hit.Meaning stop above the first bar high,we have next bar LH-LL,next bar we have a hammer on the 30,still LH-LL,stops still at high of the first bar,take the stops if hit and reverse to longs......b)Usually,reversals happen with a lot of warning signals,the 20,30 and 60 or at least 2 of them fall in line,before the actual reversal happens.Our job is not to get that earliest point,but that point where reversal is obvious.So,a hammer on the 30,accompanied by higher pivot lows on the 15 and a reversal candle on the 60,probably volumes come in handy as well......all in,put together tells us about an impending reversal.And we bring our stops down to that point and reverse to longs.........Other than that,we take it as if the trend continues in the direction of the first bar break till all timeframes come together to warn us of an impending reversal.
All reversals are Rs7 from the reversal bar high/low or pivot high/low...
ADDS:There will only be one add to the initial posn.......if we get a momentum move,with big WRB's,then might be 2 adds max.Whether you add an equal no.of contracts or lesser is up to you,so long as you don't add more number of contracts than the initial posn.....Once we get a breakdown from the first bar,and we get a strong definite close of BAR 2 to the down,our ADD is at the low of BAR 2(for example!).Next ADD is only on a clear cut pivot break on the 20/30.
All ADDs are at Rs5 above/below the bar or pivot where the add is planned.
PROFITS:You could take out profits of about a third at the area equivalent to the risk of that trade......If stop loss was Rs 45 away,and you got a Rs45 move and would like a third off......You could draw Support-Resistance Lines on the 60min charts,and take profits off when a 60min candle halts at these lines.....You could simply put a number,say 50pts or 75 pts,and pull profits the moment that point is hit.
Taking Profits is vital......Idealism is all good,and works wonders in our 60min Flow Trade......In Intraday MiniFlow,we stick to Realism.Put some in the pocket,especially if you are managing big positions,or have a stomach that churns on seeing a profit of Rs50......satisfy the psyche and take some off.
At the end of day,there is of course,the pulling out of all positions .......basically because we want to be out of all before close.
EXITS:Exits are on hitting Trail stops,......at the End of Day.......or taking profits off the table on a weak move up within a dntrend and reversing once the down move starts.
Will break it down further in next few posts....
Saint
PERSPECTIVE:Although we would be trading a particular time frame,we will not be basing our decisions on a larger timeframe.......but we will be taking the help of the larger time frame and the immediate smaller time frame so that we are able to see things more clearly.
TIME FRAME OF TRADE:The 30min chart...........with the help of the 60 and the 20.
CHARTS:Candlestick charts.......just because it gives me better visuals,and a particular pattern that crops up on the 60 helps with the Reversal days.And yet,whatever the pattern,it is the pivot that we are trading.And it is the Pivot that tells us to get out of positions and to stay in.
ENTRY:Allow the 5min bar,the first of the day to form......go long if the high + filter is taken out.Go short if the 5min bar low is taken out.Again with a filter.
MOVING FILTER:For the NF,put in a moving filter at Rs 14 on the 30min charts.......meaning that we want to trade the breakout on the 5 only if it shows strength enough for us to feel confident enough about that particular trade.Bar 1 high is 4312,Bar 2 high is 4320,Bar 3 high is 4330,Bar 4 high is 4337.........meaning we look on and not enter that trade.What we are looking for is a breakout bar,and not a sad excuse of a bar,with some tails.
Once that first bar is formed,we are basically looking to buy Rs14 over the high of that bar.and short Rs14 below the low of that bar.Once the entry is triggerred,presuming a long has been triggerred,stop loss is Rs 7 below the low of that bar.But only on trigger.
And another thing:We get a breakout,add the 14 to it.....and then trade breaks down,we are back to Rs7 for reversal entry,etc.This Rs14 is only for the trade that comes along with the first bar even if the first trade comes many bars later.Other than that trade,it's all Rs7 all the way.
STOP LOSS:Rs 7 below the low of the first bar once we get that breakout in case of longs.Rs 7 above the high once the shorts are triggerred.
TRAIL STOP:Trail stops only on higher pivot lows in longs.......trail stops to lower pivot highs in shorts.If you get strong 4 bars up on the 30 or more,move the stop to the low of 2 bars back.Same as the 2 bar method we employ in the 60min Flow.Only difference is use this only after we get 4 bars up.And if the 5th bar makes a new high,then trail stop to 3rd bar low,so on so forth.
Remember one thing though:2 bar method trail stop is at 4355.Pivot formed on the 30,that is very evident on the 20,trail stop there is 4367.Trail stops using Pivots are much more important.Priority is with the Pivot Stop Loss.
STOP AND REVERSE:All stops are reverse points.....Stops are placed above the high of the first bar in case of shorts,and moved down only if we get a reversal or after 4 bars.There are 2 types of reversals:a)No warning whatsoever,a V Pattern,a fall and a quick rise.No pivots on the 15min charts,take stops if hit.Meaning stop above the first bar high,we have next bar LH-LL,next bar we have a hammer on the 30,still LH-LL,stops still at high of the first bar,take the stops if hit and reverse to longs......b)Usually,reversals happen with a lot of warning signals,the 20,30 and 60 or at least 2 of them fall in line,before the actual reversal happens.Our job is not to get that earliest point,but that point where reversal is obvious.So,a hammer on the 30,accompanied by higher pivot lows on the 15 and a reversal candle on the 60,probably volumes come in handy as well......all in,put together tells us about an impending reversal.And we bring our stops down to that point and reverse to longs.........Other than that,we take it as if the trend continues in the direction of the first bar break till all timeframes come together to warn us of an impending reversal.
All reversals are Rs7 from the reversal bar high/low or pivot high/low...
ADDS:There will only be one add to the initial posn.......if we get a momentum move,with big WRB's,then might be 2 adds max.Whether you add an equal no.of contracts or lesser is up to you,so long as you don't add more number of contracts than the initial posn.....Once we get a breakdown from the first bar,and we get a strong definite close of BAR 2 to the down,our ADD is at the low of BAR 2(for example!).Next ADD is only on a clear cut pivot break on the 20/30.
All ADDs are at Rs5 above/below the bar or pivot where the add is planned.
PROFITS:You could take out profits of about a third at the area equivalent to the risk of that trade......If stop loss was Rs 45 away,and you got a Rs45 move and would like a third off......You could draw Support-Resistance Lines on the 60min charts,and take profits off when a 60min candle halts at these lines.....You could simply put a number,say 50pts or 75 pts,and pull profits the moment that point is hit.
Taking Profits is vital......Idealism is all good,and works wonders in our 60min Flow Trade......In Intraday MiniFlow,we stick to Realism.Put some in the pocket,especially if you are managing big positions,or have a stomach that churns on seeing a profit of Rs50......satisfy the psyche and take some off.
At the end of day,there is of course,the pulling out of all positions .......basically because we want to be out of all before close.
EXITS:Exits are on hitting Trail stops,......at the End of Day.......or taking profits off the table on a weak move up within a dntrend and reversing once the down move starts.
Will break it down further in next few posts....
Saint
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TIME FRAME TRADING:
Trading all time frames in one go can be confusing at first.......but rewarding once the cobwebs get cleared.As always,strategies are put in place for events that usually happen,and stops are put in place when something goes against that norm.
Broadly speaking......Trend follows the breakdown or breakout of the first bar.Stops are kept at a distance far enough to prevent us from muddling a good trade.Reversals are our worry.......and we notice that reversals don't happen most of the times,but we have to react when it does,and therefore strategy of trading all three timeframes.
Below are a few scenarios,There are many more.......still in the process of collecting various possibilities.
a)30min Chart is making LH-LL,60min is making LH-LL,and the 15min makes a non-visual pivot break.........will not show up on the 30,60,so no reversal.
b)30min Chart is making LH-LL,then forms a Hammer....15min charts no higher pivot low.....60min charts still bearish.....no reversal
c)30min chart is making LH-LL,......then a doji or a hammer with bottoming tails........15min shows up as a higher pivot low or sideways pattern.....60min shows a doji,etc......Reversal!
d)30min chart shows LL-LH,.......15min shows lower pivot highs and lows.....60min shows yet another bearish candle.........and then a swift move past the previous high on the bearish candle on the 60min chart......Reversal!
e)30min chart shows LL-LH.......all time frames down....and then a WRB on high volume that closes near its lows,followed by a bullish candle(no problem....resting candle....expect the next move to be a continuation move down......not getting it is reversal...Buy above the bullish candle.
Many more........these are few.....in the process of compiling them all.Will discuss at length about all possibilities at a later date.
Saint
Trading all time frames in one go can be confusing at first.......but rewarding once the cobwebs get cleared.As always,strategies are put in place for events that usually happen,and stops are put in place when something goes against that norm.
Broadly speaking......Trend follows the breakdown or breakout of the first bar.Stops are kept at a distance far enough to prevent us from muddling a good trade.Reversals are our worry.......and we notice that reversals don't happen most of the times,but we have to react when it does,and therefore strategy of trading all three timeframes.
Below are a few scenarios,There are many more.......still in the process of collecting various possibilities.
a)30min Chart is making LH-LL,60min is making LH-LL,and the 15min makes a non-visual pivot break.........will not show up on the 30,60,so no reversal.
b)30min Chart is making LH-LL,then forms a Hammer....15min charts no higher pivot low.....60min charts still bearish.....no reversal
c)30min chart is making LH-LL,......then a doji or a hammer with bottoming tails........15min shows up as a higher pivot low or sideways pattern.....60min shows a doji,etc......Reversal!
d)30min chart shows LL-LH,.......15min shows lower pivot highs and lows.....60min shows yet another bearish candle.........and then a swift move past the previous high on the bearish candle on the 60min chart......Reversal!
e)30min chart shows LL-LH.......all time frames down....and then a WRB on high volume that closes near its lows,followed by a bullish candle(no problem....resting candle....expect the next move to be a continuation move down......not getting it is reversal...Buy above the bullish candle.
Many more........these are few.....in the process of compiling them all.Will discuss at length about all possibilities at a later date.
Saint
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REVERSAL DAYS:
Means we had a move in one direction and then a right about turn in the opposite direction........A few examples:
JAN 28TH:Short at 5162....BAR 6 making new lows,bring the stops to high of BAR 4 VIZ.5130,which alos happens to be a higher pivot low,and the high of that pivot.....and a reversal candle on the 60.Long above 5130 + room.
JAN 31ST:Short at 5121,cover at 5160 +7=5167...Long at 5167,Out at 5191(Pivot on 15 and sideways on 30....cannot expect more on a day that had big move down and then a big move up and now looking to fall again)....Short at 5191,and cover at 5138 at close.
FEB 1ST:A reversal candle on the 60 and 30 and a higher pivot low on the 15/20 before a strong reversal.
FEB 4TH:Look at this one......keep this one in the memorybanks .....4 up bars,followed by a decisive break of previous LL,......the bullish candle followed by a bearish candle taking out the lows is sweet,if multiple bullish candles followed by a bearish candle that straight away breaks the previous LL.....even better.Bulls have no time to react,there is no indecision between bears and bulls before the fall happens,the bulls are caught out in surprise and in panic.......Reverse at that point to great profits.
FEB 25TH:There is a higher pivot low on the 15 again to help us with this one.
FEB 29TH:Again a Bottoming Tail on the 60.....higher pivot lows on the 15/20
MAR 4TH:2 Reversals here....again,15/60 alerts us.......although losses day I guess with the broker very happy.
MAR 10TH:Again,same as above.....except no tails on the 60.
MAR 28TH:Here again,there is an alert from the pivots on 15/20/30
More later!!
Means we had a move in one direction and then a right about turn in the opposite direction........A few examples:
JAN 28TH:Short at 5162....BAR 6 making new lows,bring the stops to high of BAR 4 VIZ.5130,which alos happens to be a higher pivot low,and the high of that pivot.....and a reversal candle on the 60.Long above 5130 + room.
JAN 31ST:Short at 5121,cover at 5160 +7=5167...Long at 5167,Out at 5191(Pivot on 15 and sideways on 30....cannot expect more on a day that had big move down and then a big move up and now looking to fall again)....Short at 5191,and cover at 5138 at close.
FEB 1ST:A reversal candle on the 60 and 30 and a higher pivot low on the 15/20 before a strong reversal.
FEB 4TH:Look at this one......keep this one in the memorybanks .....4 up bars,followed by a decisive break of previous LL,......the bullish candle followed by a bearish candle taking out the lows is sweet,if multiple bullish candles followed by a bearish candle that straight away breaks the previous LL.....even better.Bulls have no time to react,there is no indecision between bears and bulls before the fall happens,the bulls are caught out in surprise and in panic.......Reverse at that point to great profits.
FEB 25TH:There is a higher pivot low on the 15 again to help us with this one.
FEB 29TH:Again a Bottoming Tail on the 60.....higher pivot lows on the 15/20
MAR 4TH:2 Reversals here....again,15/60 alerts us.......although losses day I guess with the broker very happy.
MAR 10TH:Again,same as above.....except no tails on the 60.
MAR 28TH:Here again,there is an alert from the pivots on 15/20/30
More later!!
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I think ADDs are clear now.........if we get a clear cut breakdn bar after an entry,meaning that BAR 2 clearly cracked below BAR 1,add shorts below the low of BAR 2.......and the next ADD after a clear cut pivot on the 15/30.
Not to forget that ADD 1 when added ,you are not bringing stops down........stops are still above the high of the first bar.So position sizing is key........if your risk that you are not willing to cross is 1.25%,then the Initial Position + ADD 1 ,Risk of which should not cross 1.25%,as stops are not getting moved.......Because Adds are made is not an excuse to move our stops and get stopped out.
So,stops remain where they are....Do your math the moment that first bar is formed...Presuming :Short 5 lots initial posn,and add 3 lots later......no moving of stops,so together on all 8 lots,risk should not cross that level of risk you have set for yourself.
Saint
Not to forget that ADD 1 when added ,you are not bringing stops down........stops are still above the high of the first bar.So position sizing is key........if your risk that you are not willing to cross is 1.25%,then the Initial Position + ADD 1 ,Risk of which should not cross 1.25%,as stops are not getting moved.......Because Adds are made is not an excuse to move our stops and get stopped out.
So,stops remain where they are....Do your math the moment that first bar is formed...Presuming :Short 5 lots initial posn,and add 3 lots later......no moving of stops,so together on all 8 lots,risk should not cross that level of risk you have set for yourself.
Saint
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