HAPPY's Trading Dairy
- Thread starter Happy_Singh
- Start date
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looks like 
Current status . .
stopped out of the short (swing position carrying over-night)
Was looking to go long above 11260, that did not happen . . .
Was not looking for intraday short, so that did not happen . . .
This is how I would trade a turn / retracement in trend . . .
What is a reversal?
Every reversal starts with a retracement of the previous trend. We will never know if it is a real reversal or just a retracement till its quite late.
So basically the system assumes and we take a chance (that's where probability comes in) and calls the reversal at a certain point.
Again at a certain point we (or the system) have to confirm if its a failure or we have really turned . . .
on get a confirmation will initiate a swing Long and start looking for favorable points to scale-in and initiate intraday trades
if its an obvious failure will start again looking for short entry to both swing & intra trades . . .
.
Current status . .
stopped out of the short (swing position carrying over-night)
Was looking to go long above 11260, that did not happen . . .
Was not looking for intraday short, so that did not happen . . .
This is how I would trade a turn / retracement in trend . . .
What is a reversal?
Every reversal starts with a retracement of the previous trend. We will never know if it is a real reversal or just a retracement till its quite late.
So basically the system assumes and we take a chance (that's where probability comes in) and calls the reversal at a certain point.
Again at a certain point we (or the system) have to confirm if its a failure or we have really turned . . .
on get a confirmation will initiate a swing Long and start looking for favorable points to scale-in and initiate intraday trades
if its an obvious failure will start again looking for short entry to both swing & intra trades . . .
.
Hello
Seems like only 10-15% traders were positive in the 90-Days challenge by Zerodha. That is a very low score,
assuming traders at traderji did much better, so lets assume 20-25% did better than break-even in last 90 days.
Everyday there are 100s of AFLs being shared here . . . many systems and methods of trading are openly discussed . . .
So why is it that 80% or more traders struggle to even get to break-even?
maybe it all comes to one thing not putting in the efforts to know the nature of the business . . .
Most of the traders try to fight this i.e the nature of the trading business . . .
rather than try to change their nature (as in their personal relationship with Money)
rather than accepting the outcome of every trade, they keep fighting . . . trying . . .
Yes it all comes to one thing not putting in the efforts to know the nature of the business . . .
.
Seems like only 10-15% traders were positive in the 90-Days challenge by Zerodha. That is a very low score,
assuming traders at traderji did much better, so lets assume 20-25% did better than break-even in last 90 days.
Everyday there are 100s of AFLs being shared here . . . many systems and methods of trading are openly discussed . . .
So why is it that 80% or more traders struggle to even get to break-even?
- trading without any system/defined method . . .
- over leveraging . . .
- over trading . . .
- skipping trades . . .
- changing systems midway . . .
- using discretion . . .
- not being consistent . . .
- not able to accept the losing trades . . .
- not knowing what they want . . .
maybe it all comes to one thing not putting in the efforts to know the nature of the business . . .
Most of the traders try to fight this i.e the nature of the trading business . . .
rather than try to change their nature (as in their personal relationship with Money)
rather than accepting the outcome of every trade, they keep fighting . . . trying . . .
Yes it all comes to one thing not putting in the efforts to know the nature of the business . . .
.
looks like
What is a reversal?
Every reversal starts with a retracement of the previous trend. We will never know if it is a real reversal or just a retracement till its quite late.
So basically the system assumes and we take a chance (that's where probability comes in) and calls the reversal at a certain point.
Again at a certain point we (or the system) have to confirm if its a failure or we have really turned . . .
on get a confirmation will initiate a swing Long and start looking for favorable points to scale-in and initiate intraday trades
if its an obvious failure will start again looking for short entry to both swing & intra trades . . .
.
What is a reversal?
Every reversal starts with a retracement of the previous trend. We will never know if it is a real reversal or just a retracement till its quite late.
So basically the system assumes and we take a chance (that's where probability comes in) and calls the reversal at a certain point.
Again at a certain point we (or the system) have to confirm if its a failure or we have really turned . . .
on get a confirmation will initiate a swing Long and start looking for favorable points to scale-in and initiate intraday trades
if its an obvious failure will start again looking for short entry to both swing & intra trades . . .
.
Could u please explain this in ur time...it's going out of my head...if u have any image to explain this that would have been more better....
Thanx
Agree . . . about that going above the head
Use any SAR system of your choice for swing trading . . .
typically it will have a success (win/loss) rate of 40-50%
Lets say we are currently trading short . . .
Now, when does the long trigger . . .
1. it will trigger when there is some move in the direction against the current short trade i.e. after some retracement
2. according to the system we are using the trend changes to long when the SAR is triggered . . .
3. now this new long entry has only 50% chance of success (we know this as we have repeatedly tested the system) . . .
4. we may get a good long trade or another SAR back to short (50-50% chance)
5. If we do get a good long trade then pile up (one of the way can be trading in the same direction on lower TFs)
Due to frequent whip-saws the Entry into a new trade is most costly affair . . . (its like a price we pay to find the right trend)
For being successful in trading, we should be able to make the most of successful entries that come our way (being on the right side of the flow)
Hope its a bit more clear now . . .
.
Use any SAR system of your choice for swing trading . . .
typically it will have a success (win/loss) rate of 40-50%
Lets say we are currently trading short . . .
Now, when does the long trigger . . .
1. it will trigger when there is some move in the direction against the current short trade i.e. after some retracement
2. according to the system we are using the trend changes to long when the SAR is triggered . . .
3. now this new long entry has only 50% chance of success (we know this as we have repeatedly tested the system) . . .
4. we may get a good long trade or another SAR back to short (50-50% chance)
5. If we do get a good long trade then pile up (one of the way can be trading in the same direction on lower TFs)
Due to frequent whip-saws the Entry into a new trade is most costly affair . . . (its like a price we pay to find the right trend)
For being successful in trading, we should be able to make the most of successful entries that come our way (being on the right side of the flow)
Hope its a bit more clear now . . .
.
Happy Ji,
Can you please explain this particular line little more..
Regards
Taiki
Can you please explain this particular line little more..
Regards
Taiki
Congratulations on completing your first month / / expiry series.
Everyone talks about psychology as the main problem for traders. The fear greed cycle . . .
I feel it is more of our relationship to Money rather than any other psychological issues that affect our performance.
For e.g. you have written on your Journal today itself the reason for not taking the last trade was that you already made some money and that made you relax.
This is the nature of the business, you will get both winning and losing streaks . . .
how much prepared we are to absorb these kind of emotional impact of winning/losing.
When it comes to emotional turmoil that money causes, all TA stuff becomes irrelevant.
We need to focus on this aspect when we are selecting or designing our trading system/method.
The most important thing in deciding the choice of method/system will be our temperament for implementing
the specific kind of money management we have incorporated in our trading method/system
(the doability with respect to the money aspect).
When someone does back tests, profitability is not the only thing that needs to be taken into consideration.
Tradability (i.e. if we will be able to take all these trades without hesitation) is the most important aspect.
My experience is not many are ready to put in any efforts for learning//training themselves,
ultimately this can be only done in live markets but even for practice people won't want to do the hard work
of say doing bar by bar walk-through of say 3/5/10 years or maximum amount of data that we can get. . . .
maybe i am not able to put across clearly what i want to convey, but thats ok
as i am neither a trainer nor an author, i am not trained for communicating all this stuff
i am just a trader trying to train myself for trading, and its an ongoing process . . .
.
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