High Profit EOD based option Strategy for Advanced Traders

DanPickUp

Well-Known Member
@Pannalal

My friend, you need some information you may did not understand or accept or most probably not have. Let me clear some stuff in your above post to make your mind sharpen. Here a screen shot of a part of that post, as it takes too much space to post it again: http://i42.tinypic.com/nmkefa.png

The above post sounds in some parts fine. Point one is absolute understandable for me. Point two is not understandable for me as you even say: The key thing is you need to know even the name of these strategies. Hmm :)

My friend, let me ask the following question: How would some body know all the names of that strategies when she/he never studied them before? If we studied this strategies before and even can manage them, how would it come that we need such kind of software? And I tell you there are people out there which know a lot, an incredible lot about option strategy trades.:) And I tell you that there are strategies out there you not even have the thinest clue about it and what there names are. Why? Because they are not given to the public and so they are never where posted in the net. You not believe me? Let me give you just one little example: Google once: Synthetic Condor and you will see where your limit already is. You only will find information about plain vanilla iron condors but nowhere what a synthetic condor is.

Now coming up with what you posted about even thousands of strategies, but not even knowing them, how would you be able to create such a software? My friend, no bad thoughts about that, but please be realistic with your chosen words. :) In your way it sounds like a chess computer which not have all the informations it needs to play real chess.

Moving on with this post and let me tell you where any advanced and pro option strategy trader beats your software at any time? By planing the trade by him self, manage it according by leg in and leg out and for that NO software exist in the world. Even your last trading recommendation was very abnormal and not practicable in its way, as your software is not on such a level you post here.

For what you do/the way you do = means your software, if it is now short selling or even in planing where to enter /place a debit spread or credit spread, or a short iron butterfly and so on and on, you just need the standard deviation you want to define, the vola, the actual strike level of the underlying has and the time you plan for your trade and that's it. You may even include the IMV of the option strike level you finally chose. Monte Carlo will/does nothing else compare computing the proba if leg/s will be touched or not. STDV does more or less the same. After having that numbers, you enter the trade and check it day by day. Even in short selling option strategy trading and in all other strategies: KISS is first rule.

As I made now some very clear critiques to what you posted in your last post (which made me posting a few clear words here and now, which I other wise would not have done), let me give you an alternative idea: If you have or can organize access to the Exchange, try to find out or create a program/tool which can spot which trader/s is/are trading which option strategy/s. That of course needs your knowledge (or some body you hire or a friend of yours which have that knowledge) about those strategies, as you have to program your software with that. In that way you will have/get access to what/which option strategy/s traders at the moment do implement and in that way you will have information about how they expect market/s to behave. If you can do that, you are one step ahead of them, as you can trade the opposite of those bulk option strategy/s traders or the opposite to that strategy. ;)

If you think to write an option strategy and analyzing software, I highly recommend you to buy and test OpVue7 to its limit. You never did that and you even never used in dept any professional option analyzing software. So how does it come that you think you can create or are more clever on such software with out knowing how such software is really made and what pros can do with it. Get first an idea what pros use for there work and then kindly come back with some other comments of yours.

Guess you now are a bit shocked by this post and I hope you take it as a wake up call for you to over think what you do and the way you just started to post comments about the ability of your file. That post here has nothing to do with your will to create some thing special and I know that is your plan. The post may not or may starts an other process in your way of thinking of what you do and the target you have in mind. You have the will, so you will find a way: I know that. Do not lose time on ways which will end in a trap.

Take care and enjoy the evening. See you around / DanPickUp :)
 
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pannalal

Well-Known Member
@Pannalal

My friend, you need some information you may did not understand or accept or most probably not have. Let me clear some stuff in your above post to make your mind sharpen. Here a screen shot of part of that post as it take to much space to post it again: http://i42.tinypic.com/nmkefa.png

The above post sounds in some parts fine. Point one is absolute understandable for me. Point two is not understandable for me as you even say: The key thing is you need to know even the name of these strategies. Hmm :)

Now coming up with what you posted about even thousands of strategies, but not even knowing them, how would you be able to create such a software? My friend, no bad thoughts about that, but please be realistic with your chosen words. :) In your way it sounds like a chess computer which not have all the informations it needs to play real chess.

Take care and enjoy the evening / DanPickUp :)
@Danji,

The key thing is you need to know even the name of these strategies. Hmm :)

There was a typo here. What I wanted to say is that you need not know the name of these strategies. This explains the thing to a large extent.

-----------------------------------------
Now coming up with what you posted about even thousands of strategies, but not even knowing them, how would you be able to create such a software? My friend, no bad thoughts about that, but please be realistic with your chosen words. :) In your way it sounds like a chess computer which not have all the informations it needs to play real chess.
-----------------------------------------

It is very simple. Suppose you ask computer that I want my trade should be positive if the range of Nifty is between 5900 and 6600. Number of Legs should be 4. It will take each option. Create four loops. In simple language, create combinations of 4 legs of each and every option. Then, do the necessary computation. If it is positive between 5900 and 6600, it will retain it, otherwise discard it. I have all options for strike price from 6000 to 7000 (if these are multiple of 100, discarding those are multiple of 50 like 6050 etc.). It has created exactly 976 strategies. That means there are only 976 combinations that satisfy these requirements. You just pm me, I shall send you the complete list of 976 strategies. I need not know the name because I am testing all the combinations. That is as simple as. It does not see the quality of strategy, just compute all the combinations and if it satisfies the given condition, retain it, otherwise discard it. Now, you can sort as per your choice because nobody has time to read 976 strategies.

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Even your last trading recommendation was very abnormal and not practicable in its way, as your software is not on such a level you post here.
---------------------------------------------------

Please read my comments given there:
"This may not be the best strategy but one of the strategy given by the software, giving as example".

So, I did not say that you use this strategy. This is one example where you earn money if Nifty is between 6000 and 6600. Anyway, this is well know strategy: "Short Strangle".

I do not compare it with any professional software. But, still it has its own quality. Let me make it user friendly (right now, it is a programmer's tool, not for end user), then I shall send one copy to you. Only on seeing the software, you will be able to compare it with others and know its value. It might be very poor in comparison of other software, but you will know only when you see it.:)
 

DanPickUp

Well-Known Member
I am sure it has a good quality. Guess you did also read my last part in my post. :)

Ok, my PM is open. Send me that list of those 976 strategies and I will go through it. I love such stuff. :) You can do it with an Excel file or with a PDF or what ever you like.
 
@LondonVisitor

First of all: Welcome in the thread. Interesting name you have. Have been in London many time and love it.

Now my second point: As you ask him may I ask you: What is your strategy for January or how do you trade your short options with the future leg/s? As he takes his time, I guess it would not be more than fair enough when you also bring in some thing into this thread by telling a bit more in detail about what you are doing. Are you doing synthetics or what are you doing? You know: Most here are curios what others do :D. Take care / DanPickUp :)
Dan,

Thanks for the welcome message. My real name is Subramaniam. I joined Traderji few months ago and have been reading more often recently. I have been an investor since 2008 and started in Equities. Long ago in 1995-1996, I invested in Equities. After I moved to London in end of 2008, I started in derivatives products CFDs, which are highly leveraged futures. After returned to India 2 years ago, I resumed my Equity investments and also started in Futures of NF, BNF and Stocks.

I am not an Options guy. I have rarely traded in Options. Occasionally bought Nifty PE to hedge Equities if I see Equities are over heated. So, Synthetics is Greek to me. Don't even know what they are.

For Equity investments, I look for value through Price Earnings multiples. For Futures, I follow trend lines. I have also been following JustNifty group and few other sites on Futures of NF, BNF and Stocks.

My last one year journey in Futures have been ok - big losses recovered and going. Actually, these are more active between May-Nov'13. Did not do any trading for the past 6 weeks due to HSBC Broker closing and shifting of my account to Sharekhan-DeutscheBank (my DP account is still not transferred from HSBC to DeutscheBank). I am planning to open an account with Zerodha as brokerage is cheaper than Sharekhan. So use Sharekhan for investments and Zerodha for trading.

While in London, CFD trading of indices were in losses due to extremely high leverage (1:300), interest charges (read it as poor money management) and poor risk management. I like the 5-10 times of leverage provided by Indian stock brokers compared to 300 times leverage provided by CFDs, which helps in risk management. I am afraid to publish my strategy here as I mostly short futures which is often against the trend and can result in huge losses or huge profits.

Reason for asking about January numbers is to see if I can buy or write Options to hedge my Futures and Equities positions. Basically I want to expand products to hedge other products. I carry over Futures to next month until they reach certain profit level or loss.

Regards
LondonVisitor
 
@Danji,

The key thing is you need to know even the name of these strategies. Hmm :)

-----------------------------------------
It is very simple. Suppose you ask computer that I want my trade should be positive if the range of Nifty is between 5900 and 6600. Number of Legs should be 4. It will take each option. Create four loops. In simple language, create combinations of 4 legs of each and every option. Then, do the necessary computation. If it is positive between 5900 and 6600, it will retain it, otherwise discard it. I have all options for strike price from 6000 to 7000 (if these are multiple of 100, discarding those are multiple of 50 like 6050 etc.). It has created exactly 976 strategies. That means there are only 976 combinations that satisfy these requirements. You just pm me, I shall send you the complete list of 976 strategies. I need not know the name because I am testing all the combinations. That is as simple as. It does not see the quality of strategy, just compute all the combinations and if it satisfies the given condition, retain it, otherwise discard it. Now, you can sort as per your choice because nobody has time to read 976 strategies.

--------------------------------------------------
OMG. 976 combinations!
 

SaravananKS

Well-Known Member
@Danji,

The key thing is you need to know even the name of these strategies. Hmm :)

There was a typo here. What I wanted to say is that you need not know the name of these strategies. This explains the thing to a large extent.

-----------------------------------------
Now coming up with what you posted about even thousands of strategies, but not even knowing them, how would you be able to create such a software? My friend, no bad thoughts about that, but please be realistic with your chosen words. :) In your way it sounds like a chess computer which not have all the informations it needs to play real chess.
-----------------------------------------

It is very simple. Suppose you ask computer that I want my trade should be positive if the range of Nifty is between 5900 and 6600. Number of Legs should be 4. It will take each option. Create four loops. In simple language, create combinations of 4 legs of each and every option. Then, do the necessary computation. If it is positive between 5900 and 6600, it will retain it, otherwise discard it. I have all options for strike price from 6000 to 7000 (if these are multiple of 100, discarding those are multiple of 50 like 6050 etc.). It has created exactly 976 strategies. That means there are only 976 combinations that satisfy these requirements. You just pm me, I shall send you the complete list of 976 strategies. I need not know the name because I am testing all the combinations. That is as simple as. It does not see the quality of strategy, just compute all the combinations and if it satisfies the given condition, retain it, otherwise discard it. Now, you can sort as per your choice because nobody has time to read 976 strategies.

--------------------------------------------------
Even your last trading recommendation was very abnormal and not practicable in its way, as your software is not on such a level you post here.
---------------------------------------------------

Please read my comments given there:
"This may not be the best strategy but one of the strategy given by the software, giving as example".

So, I did not say that you use this strategy. This is one example where you earn money if Nifty is between 6000 and 6600. Anyway, this is well know strategy: "Short Strangle".

I do not compare it with any professional software. But, still it has its own quality. Let me make it user friendly (right now, it is a programmer's tool, not for end user), then I shall send one copy to you. Only on seeing the software, you will be able to compare it with others and know its value. It might be very poor in comparison of other software, but you will know only when you see it.:)
i think one can get option Strategy comparison from this site
http://www.optionbingo.com/OptionBingo/faces/Index.jsp

though Paid Subscribers get full details but experienced option trader can get exact Strike easily with out any subscription...

I don't know how Pannalal software but I hope he will not simply re invent the wheel again..:thumb:
 

pannalal

Well-Known Member
I am sure it has a good quality. Guess you did also read my last part in my post. :)

Ok, my PM is open. Send me that list of those 976 strategies and I will go through it. I love such stuff. :) You can do it with an Excel file or with a PDF or what ever you like.
Please see your private message. I have sent the link of the file. The file is zipped. If you unzip, it is a plain text file that can be opened with any editor.
 

pannalal

Well-Known Member
i think one can get option Strategy comparison from this site
http://www.optionbingo.com/OptionBingo/faces/Index.jsp

though Paid Subscribers get full details but experienced option trader can get exact Strike easily with out any subscription...

I don't know how Pannalal software but I hope he will not simply re invent the wheel again..:thumb:
Saravananji,

There is absolutely no need of reinventing the wheel.

I have seen many options software products but they do not satisfy my need so I developed one that is exactly fulfil my requirements. I do not compare it with any professional options software (at the same time, I am not averse to take good points from any other software, if these are useful to me).

Now, I tell how my software is different:

(1) It is exactly for Nifty. It takes all the options data from NSE so I need not enter any data. It also removes strike price that is not multiple of 100 (like 5750, 5850 etc. ) because there is not enough liquidity or there is too much gap between ask and bid price.

(2) While computing strategies, I do not take LTP, rather I take the average price of ask and bid (in most cases, this is what you will get on the next day opening).

(3) It computes IV (implied volatility) for each strike price based on the premium. Though, it is slightly different from what is provided by NSE but that is ok. Now, all my computations like options Greeks and probability are calculated based on these IV. In most other software, you can give single volatility. Most software does not allow you to enter different IV for different strike prices.

(4) Then, I refine the probability of losing trade based on the VIX data for one year and NSE spot data for 5 years using Monte Carlo with genetic algorithm. There are tools (link given by Danji) to compute probability. But, those tools are not aware that Nifty has never crossed 6416 in its lifetime whereas my software checks last 5 years Nifty data and it knows that. So, it gives slightly better results. However, in any case, the probability is always an estimate and it keeps changing every second based on the Nifty price and volatility so this is not a major issue.

(5) Once, I know the probability, then I take that range and give that range to software and number of legs. It computes all the combinations. Now, sometime the combinations may be in the thousands. So, I sort these based on different criteria and it create a text file with top 20 strategies. I select the strategy of my liking.

(6) Last but not least, the key advantage of your own software is you can manipulate as per your requirements. For example, if you ask me to give the probability of touching 6500, 6600, 6700, 6800 on each date from 1st Jan to 25th Jan. I just write a small program with two loops (it will take hardly 5 minutes) and the entire list of probabilities is created and stored in a file. This is only an example. Another example, is computing probability each day. My trade is stored in the database. It takes Nifty spot price from NSE and computes probability automatically, I just start the program. No data entry at all. This is not possible with program developed by another company.

The basic thing is it cannot be compared with any professional program (because those are written for masses and have lot of other useful features) but it serves me very well.:)
 

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