How to measure success? - The performance parameters

trader.trends

Well-Known Member
#41
Tnsn

When we back test a strategy we are essentially looking at the TF we want to trade. For instance suppose I am trading the 30min on NF, I have back tested the 30min only and formulated a strategy. My entry, SL, TSL and exits are determined by looking at the 30 min candles only and not any lower time frame. I am not looking at the internals of the 30min candle but when we are trading live, we are not watching discrete shots of the market but the continuous movement. We are looking at the market tick by tick and suddenly decision making can go awry when you watch a lower TF than what you trade.

Here is where your idea of "review intervals" is of great help. I called it "snapshot trading". My back test is only snapshots of the mkt every 30 min hence my live trading should also be same for me to replicate the results of the back test.

So the ideal would be to put on the trade, put on the SL and watch it only till the SL needs adjustment to bring it to BEP. After that move away from the system and come back to see the market only at the end of each 30 minute candle to make any adjustment to TSL if required or exit if the time stop is hit. Like I said, that is the ideal. But although I do not make any adjustment before the candle closes to stay away from the screen once in trade needs tremendous will power. The best I manage to stay away is about 10-15 minutes. I do not have to do anything during the forming of the 30 min candle but still feel the need to watch the trade.

How do you manage to be away in between your review period?? What is your thought process during the gap?
 

trader.trends

Well-Known Member
#42



I follow around 28 diff. futures and am either in a trade or close to a trade in all of them.(I have bid close to the mkt if I am not in the trade)..



At the end of the day, when I analyze my results..
20% of trades give me a decent loss.ie. my 'predetermined' stop is hit.
around 50% of trades range somewhere between a small loss to a small profit.
balance 30% are profitable..

regards
Awesome! Looking at 28 securities!! Amazing results too!
 

tnsn2345

Well-Known Member
#43


hi Tnsn

someone once pmd me a question..'how wd u trade the mkt. after a big breakaway bar.' my response was that the only way I'd want to trade is to be in that bar...
I follow around 28 diff. futures and am either in a trade or close to a trade in all of them.(I have bid close to the mkt if I am not in the trade)..

I always enter with a predetermined sl (put actually in the mkt, not mental).
studying the mkt fr a while after entry, I make the desicion..either I revise the sl.( bring it closer to my entry) or leave it at the predetermined level.
when in a trade I keep on revising my sl..
I do not have a defined p1. as a matter of fact, I do not have a target..
I never book a profit. I always get out when my stop is hit..
but if my trade is good, my stop is way above the price that I bought at or way below the price I sold.

At the end of the day, when I analyze my results..
20% of trades give me a decent loss.ie. my 'predetermined' stop is hit.
around 50% of trades range somewhere between a small loss to a small profit.
balance 30% are profitable..

regards
Dear Anurag,

We trade quite differently. Also for intraday, I trade only one instrument, since for intraday and shorter TF, we have Options, howsoever the UL behave (bull, bear or flat) we can create some or the other winning setup.

For positional / larger TF there are more instruments / ULs.


Regards,
 

tnsn2345

Well-Known Member
#44
....
How do you manage to be away in between your review period?? What is your thought process during the gap?
IMO, forecasting the direction of opening and also forecasting gaps (not the absolute quantum) is relatively an easier task. (Atleast for me since I trade an discretionary system).

To forecast a gap on the next day, just before the close of the previous day, I would look for a daily and 1 hour CS chart and look out for an answer to the question 'What will NOT happen tomorrow opening?' My trades are built on answer to this question. And in most of the most cases, I am not disappointed.

So if the answer viz, the UL will not fall, then my set up will be a covered call i.e. long UL and short OTM call. Hence I gain if it opens up, gain if it opens flat and lose very marginally if it opens down.

Again, I trade multiple TF for the same UL, hence, the position risked for overnight trades is smaller (or is relatively hedged as per my Risk Management system). Since I would have a weekly position too in the same UL (and that too many a times, contradicting the overnight position), the mind doesn't rattle too much if the UL doesn't open in gap what I predict. But this quite seldom, in most of the ocassions, next days market opening can be forecasted correctly.

For the days when it is difficult to predict the next day's market opening / gap, then the setup is almost fully hedged (neutral setups) with intention of profiting for time decay (through options) and not dependend on direction. If the Risk : Reward for profit from time decay (from netural setups) during such indesicive days is not very favourable, then there are not overnight positions. But this is quite seldom.

Regards,
 

trader.trends

Well-Known Member
#45
IMO, forecasting the direction of opening and also forecasting gaps (not the absolute quantum) is relatively an easier task. (Atleast for me since I trade an discretionary system).
Hey Tnsn, I was not talking about the overnight gaps:), (but thanks for that interesting piece), but the gaps between your 'review intervals' If you are day trading and if your review interval is 30 minutes, how do you manage those 30min without looking at the trading screen??
 
#47
Hi

Money management and financial discipline play major role in TRADING, more than any thing. FIRST.. For any trader INTRA or SWING, you need to plan trading strategy before entering trade, this is first step to successfull trade.
SECOND... you need to stick to that strategy in any condition.

If you are new to trading, avoid your own trades, follow good analysts.

Thanks
 

anuragmunjal

Well-Known Member
#48
Dear Anurag,

We trade quite differently. Also for intraday, I trade only one instrument, since for intraday and shorter TF, we have Options, howsoever the UL behave (bull, bear or flat) we can create some or the other winning setup.

For positional / larger TF there are more instruments / ULs.


Regards,
hi Tnsn

yes our respective approach is very different. u have a good understanding of the market moves and back urself to predict the next move..essentially u are taking high probability trades.
on the other hand, I am taking low probability trades, hence this diversification into different commodities ... I do not know where the next big move is ....my edge is how I manage my trades..weed out the losses & let the profitable ones run..
when I say 'at the end of the day', I mean when I review my trades, which is generally a month. most of my profitable trades run fr a few days, though majority of the non proiftable ones are weeded out in a few hours.
ur expaination of allocation of funds to 'high risk' and 'low risk' trades in another thread , and treating them separately,was an eye opener ..maybe
someday I am able to incorporate it in my 'kind' of trading..

regards
 

mithoon

Active Member
#50
I have found these two methods that objectively measure success of you system,1(1)Expentency(2)SQN(System quality number)both of which have been discussed in Van tharp's books(Trade your way to financial freedom & VanTharps Definitive Guide to PositionSizing ),both of which have also helped me immensely in confidently trading my system,i would encourage every trader how is looking to find out how good their system is to read these books.
 
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