How to trade Commodities - Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Natural Gas

[adityasaraf007]

Aditya...i have shown already at least thrice that when a trend line breaks market reverses back to it to get bounced off again to confirm its action of trend line break , so why should anyone put SL order to get stopped out which is the right time to enter in fact. This phenomenon is very frequent one.

Yes!!!!! I get your point..... When we get the Retest... it does make the move more meaningful and does gives us more confidence about its success.... I am still in learning stages, so these points do sometimes slip off my mind.... You won't find me repeating the same mistake again....

But... we did get an unfavourable move to the extent of almost 5%.... This is a huge move.... If you did trade it... Please share how did you handle it...

Did you close the position after the break of sideways move and re-entered again after successful retest?

Your trade is going great guns..$1647 achieved with HH-HL patterns...promising..:thumb:

No luck... Just paper trading and making virtual money... Don't have a Commodities Account yet

Aditya...Pl. go through the WW manual again and get Bill's idea on Stop Loss.
Also, go through the book Street Smarts and see what Linda Raschke says about Stop Loss on WW.

Then we can discuss it better.

Let me guess what you are referring to Bill's idea... Are you referring to drawing the lines from point 3 and point 1 which are parallel to the line 2-4.....

So, do you place the Stops around the line drawn from point 1....

No idea about Linda Raschke's book.... Is it freely available on the internet?

Regards

 

[uttamkamlesh]

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[adityasaraf007]

Gold is traded in troy ounce which is +31.1034 gm. Sir can you tell me what is
the silver unit traded and where to find equivalent to it. Is it the same as
31.1034 gms. pl explain.

Hi Nanda ji... if you go to the eSignal page for Silver.... it says "Ounces Of Silver Spot".... So, Yes... 1 unit of silver is equivalent to that of gold...

 

[uttamkamlesh]

Yes!!!!! I get your point..... When we get the Retest... it does make the move more meaningful and does gives us more confidence about its success.... I am still in learning stages, so these points do sometimes slip off my mind.... You won't find me repeating the same mistake again....Thank You!

But... we did get an unfavourable move to the extent of almost 5%.... This is a huge move.... If you did trade it.(did not take).. Please share how did you handle it...

Did you close the position after the break of sideways move and re-entered again after successful retest?..........Answered below



No luck... Just paper trading and making virtual money... Don't have a Commodities Account yet ......I know that already



Let me guess what you are referring to Bill's idea... Are you referring to drawing the lines from point 3 and point 1 which are parallel to the line 2-4.....

So, do you place the Stops around the line drawn from point 1........No comments now!

No idea about Linda Raschke's book.... Is it freely available on the internet?....YES!!

Regards

(a) First way to enter:

In a highly Overbought (All bulls tired) market sell above 1-3-5 line itself.

(b) Second way to Enter:

Let point 5 be made above 1-3 line then in the next candle in the same TF volume must reduce. Then after volume confirmation you may enter.

(c) Third way to enter:

After 2-4 line is broken....but here you need to trail your SL order because market has to retest the Trendline 2-4 (assume by default).

(d) Fourth way to Enter:

When retest of the Trendline 2-4 occurs.

and vice-versa for Oversold markets......but I am more comfortable beaing a bear!....

 

[adityasaraf007]

So... Just take the example of recent WW on Copper..... we got a huge move of 5% just to retest the trendline of 2-4.....

Now... suppose we enter as soon as point 5 is made (I guess this is the way you enter)..... so do you let that unfavourable move of 5% happen to you.... You keep the initial SL intact...

 

[uttamkamlesh]

So... Just take the example of recent WW on Copper..... we got a huge move of 5% just to retest the trendline of 2-4.....

Now... suppose we enter as soon as point 5 is made (I guess this is the way you enter)..... so do you let that unfavourable move of 5% happen to you.... You keep the initial SL intact...

.....

Copper Case:
See Point 4 is already a Resistance for the EPA line as discussed by Bill... so here i start unloading and only 1/3rd positions i carry for EPA hit.

Since for me TREND is the biggest pattern of them all (WW is not a Trend changer pattern at all) and i assume a trend to be in tact unless proved otherwise so a strong rebound is very likely, assumed by default (See what crude did just now).

So trailing SL order on rest of the positions is the only way forward.

Crude Case:
See what crude did, after the trendline break it made a Low of 84.22 but then comes back to bang the trendline at 88.88 .
So, I have closed all my positions yesterday morning itself at 85.6.

Now, i have entered again, idea is trend line break not WW...Stop Loss $90.16 is enough.

 

[mdrafi67]

Aditya...i have shown already at least thrice that when a trend line breaks market reverses back to it to get bounced off again to confirm its action of trend line break , so why should anyone put SL order to get stopped out which is the right time to enter in fact. The upper tail of the candle you are seeing in enclosed box there is the handiwork of Big Boys.....This phenomenon is very frequent one.

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Hi kamleshji,
when the trendline is broken should we look in the same TF or move on the HTF to see weather the broke is a fake or real one. Are there any chances of "FAKE" break of the TL. If so is any any possibility to check its confirmation. Just being a learner asked out of curiosity as question may seem a little bit stupid. hope u will reply..........THANQ........CHEERS!!!!!:thumb:

 

[adityasaraf007]

.....

Copper Case:
See Point 4 is already a Resistance for the EPA line as discussed by Bill... so here i start unloading and only 1/3rd positions i carry for EPA hit.

Since for me TREND is the biggest pattern of them all (WW is not a Trend changer pattern at all) and i assume a trend to be in tact unless proved otherwise so a strong rebound is very likely, assumed by default (See what crude did just now).

So trailing SL order on rest of the positions is the only way forward.

Crude Case:
See what crude did, after the trendline break it made a Low of 84.22 but then comes back to bang the trendline at 88.88 .
So, I have closed all my positions yesterday morning itself at 85.6.

Wonderful.... you have cleared a lot of doubts.... I always had this doubt about WW Vs Trend....

Thanks and regards....

 

[uttamkamlesh]

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Hi kamleshji,
when the trendline is broken should we look in the same TF or move on the HTF to see weather the broke is a fake or real one. Are there any chances of "FAKE" break of the TL. If so is any any possibility to check its confirmation. Just being a learner asked out of curiosity as question may seem a little bit stupid. hope u will reply..........THANQ........CHEERS!!!!!:thumb:

FAKE or REAL only market would tell later on....HTF is always welcome and draw all valid trendlines then make decision.

Experience would make you better day by day.

 

[mdrafi67]

COPPER HAS FORMED AN INVERTED H&S PATTERN AND CAN SEE FURTHER TARGET OF 3.3.................ANY VIEW\COMMENTS ARE WELCOME.........HAPPY TRADING .......................CHEERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:thumb:

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"if i fall i may not bounce back but markets always does"...........

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COPPER VIEW.....................
AS WRITTEN YESTERDAY COPPER MISSED OUR TGT BY 0.02...........NEED MORE CONFIRMATION................HAVE A LOOK AT THE CHARTS.........UR VIEWS\COMMENTS ARE WELCOME......................HAPPY TRADING!!!!!!!!!!!!--------MR

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CHEERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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"if i fall i may not bounce back but markets always does"...........