Let us try to analyse market action on 30th and 31st July 2009....First let us see what the higher timeframe (30 min) was indicating....
If we see market action on 30th and 31st....the oscillator remaied in overbought zone for 15 bars....this indicated a strong upmove ahead....so on last day of the settlement the upmove,many thought it is a last minute short covering etc....nothing of that sort,market was setting up for the upmove all throughout the day......
Now let us come to smaller timeframe(5 min)...and see what market was doing...
Market on 30th and early part of 31st was indicating a strong upmove....but in the midsession market went in correction mode and drifted down...it held support on 5 min and 30 min timeframes very well....and after 3:00 the tsunami started....look at the channel break,near vertical upmove,observe the positive divergence in oscillator chart ,the fact that this upmove started with a bang( the starting 5 min bar is of 23 points against average ATR of 11 points).....all indications of getting on board quickly and stay in long position till the end of day.....
The above analysis indicates that behind seemingly random moves of the market there is lots of set ups going on and if we understand these ....the moves will not come as a surprise (it came as a rude shock for some.....) but they will come as expected moves which we can trade profitably....
Method in madness....I guess ....:lol:
Best wishes,
Smart_trade